Purdue is bleeding money lately, dropping three straight against the spread. Can Maryland’s Pharrel Payne exploit a shaky Boilers defense, or is Purdue’s offensive firepower an inevitable best bet?
The Setup: Purdue at Maryland
Purdue’s laying 13.5 to 14 points on the road at Maryland, and if you’re squinting at that number wondering how a team that just dropped three straight gets this much respect, you’re asking the right question. Here’s the answer: efficiency metrics don’t care about your feelings or recent results. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Purdue sits at #7 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency at 123.8, while Maryland limps in at #232 with a 104.9 mark. That’s not a gap—that’s a chasm. The Boilermakers are #11 in adjusted net efficiency at +23.4, while the Terps are barely treading water at #198 with a -2.5 net rating. This spread isn’t about momentum. It’s about Maryland being fundamentally overmatched against one of the nation’s elite offensive machines.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Purdue at Maryland
Date: February 1, 2026
Time: 1:00 PM ET
Location: XFINITY Center, College Park, MD
Bovada:
Spread: Purdue -14
Total: 149.5
Moneyline: Purdue -1400, Maryland +750
DraftKings:
Spread: Purdue -13.5
Total: 149.5
Moneyline: Purdue -1100, Maryland +700
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on two weeks here, and when you run the efficiency math, it’s actually conservative. Purdue’s adjusted offensive efficiency is nearly 19 points better than Maryland’s adjusted defensive rating of 107.3 (#159). Meanwhile, Maryland’s offensive efficiency of 104.9 gets swallowed whole by Purdue’s adjusted defensive mark of 100.4 (#42). The theoretical spread based purely on efficiency differential would push closer to 16 or 17 points.
So why only 13.5 to 14? Road variance and recent results create hesitation. Purdue’s dropped three straight, including back-to-back home losses to Illinois and a road defeat at Indiana. The market is pricing in some uncertainty about whether the Boilermakers can flip the switch after a rough stretch. But here’s what matters: those three losses came against quality competition, and the efficiency numbers haven’t cratered. Purdue still ranks #31 in offensive rating at 127.6 and maintains elite ball movement at #8 nationally with 20.2 assists per game.
The total at 149.5 reflects Purdue’s slower pace at 66.7 (#248) combined with Maryland’s slightly faster tempo at 70.1 (#132). Project around 68-69 possessions, apply the efficiency numbers, and you’re looking at something in the 85-70 range. The number makes sense.
Purdue Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let’s cut through the noise about Purdue’s losing streak and focus on what actually travels. This offense is surgical. The Boilermakers rank #10 nationally in three-point shooting at 40.2%, #33 in effective field goal percentage at 57.7%, and they move the ball like few teams in the country. Braden Smith is the #2 assist man in America at 8.7 dimes per game, orchestrating an attack that doesn’t beat itself with turnovers—just 10.1 per game (#43).
The frontcourt balance is legit. Trey Kaufman-Renn gives you 13.9 points and 10.7 boards (#11 nationally), while Oscar Cluff adds 11.1 points and 8.9 rebounds (#49). That’s two legitimate rebounders who can finish inside and create second chances. Fletcher Loyer provides perimeter punch at 14.4 points per game, and when you combine that shooting with Smith’s distribution, you get an offense that ranks #47 in true shooting percentage at 60.6%.
Defensively, Purdue isn’t dominant but they’re solid. They hold opponents to 41.7% shooting and 32.0% from three (#149). The adjusted defensive efficiency at #42 nationally tells you this unit can get stops when it matters.
Maryland Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Maryland’s numbers are ugly across the board, but let’s find the pulse. Pharrel Payne is a legitimate scorer at 18.7 points per game (#68 nationally) and pulls down 7.6 boards. David Coit and Darius Adams both average 13.2 points, giving the Terps some semblance of offensive balance. They crash the offensive glass reasonably well at 34.9% (#59), which could create some extra possessions.
But that’s where the good news ends. Maryland shoots 40.6% from the floor (#337) and just 30.9% from three (#287). The effective field goal percentage of 47.2% ranks #328 nationally—that’s bottom-tier efficiency. They turn it over 13.9 times per game (#299) and don’t assist the ball well at just 11.3 per game (#334). This is an offense that struggles to create quality looks and compounds mistakes with poor shot selection.
The defense is equally concerning. Maryland allows 45.6% shooting (#279) and 36.5% from three (#318). The defensive rating of 108.0 ranks #218, and when you’re giving up 78.5 points per game (#284), you’re not stopping anybody consistently. That 48-91 beatdown at Michigan State? That’s what happens when the efficiency gap gets exposed.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Maryland’s ability to disrupt Purdue’s offensive rhythm, and frankly, I don’t see how they do it. The Terps don’t force turnovers at an elite rate—just 6.5 steals per game (#244)—and they don’t have the perimeter defenders to chase Loyer and Smith off the three-point line. Purdue’s assist rate suggests they’ll find the open man, and Maryland’s three-point defense at #318 nationally means those open looks will be available.
Inside, Kaufman-Renn and Cluff should dominate the glass. Maryland’s defensive rebounding isn’t strong enough to keep Purdue off the offensive boards, and second-chance points could bury the Terps. Purdue has 324 points in the paint compared to Maryland’s 274, and that interior advantage should translate to easy buckets when the perimeter game opens things up.
Maryland’s only path is chaos—force tempo, create transition opportunities off Purdue turnovers, and hope Payne goes nuclear for 30. But Purdue doesn’t turn it over much, and Maryland’s fast break points total of 74 suggests they’re not built to run teams off the floor. The pace will favor Purdue’s controlled attack, and in a halfcourt game, the efficiency gap is insurmountable.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the Purdue -13.5 and sleeping fine. Yes, the Boilermakers are coming off three straight losses, but efficiency metrics are predictive, and these numbers scream blowout. Purdue’s adjusted offensive efficiency is 19 points better than Maryland’s adjusted defensive mark—that’s not a matchup, that’s a mismatch. The Terps can’t shoot, can’t defend the three, and don’t have the horses to slow down Smith’s distribution or Kaufman-Renn’s interior presence.
Road favorites always carry risk, but when the talent gap is this wide and the efficiency differential is this stark, you trust the numbers. Purdue gets right in College Park. Purdue -13.5.
