The Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference’s preseason top two teams finally meet as Siena hosts Quinnipiac at MVP Arena. After digging into the transition data, the Saints emerge as a strong ATS pick due to their league-leading 46.8% field goal percentage and a scoring defense that ranks 21st nationally.
The Setup: Quinnipiac at Siena
Siena’s laying 3.5 to 4 points at home against Quinnipiac on Thursday night, and this is one of those MAAC matchups where the market’s telling you everything you need to know about tempo and efficiency. The Saints are 9-2 and sitting on a defensive rating that ranks 10th nationally in opponent scoring at 61.4 points per game. Meanwhile, Quinnipiac’s rolling in at 7-3, averaging 79.8 points and playing at a pace that’s 13 possessions faster per game. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this becomes a classic clash of styles—and the spread reflects exactly how much Siena’s defensive identity matters in this building.
Here’s the thesis: Siena wins this game by grinding Quinnipiac into submission. The Saints play at the 357th-ranked pace nationally at 58.6 possessions, which is glacial even by mid-major standards. The Bobcats want to run and gun, ranking 89th in tempo at 71.5 possessions. That 13-possession gap is massive, and when you’re the home team dictating pace in a conference game, you’re controlling the entire complexion of the matchup. The question isn’t whether Siena can slow this down—it’s whether four points is enough cushion when you’re forcing a team completely out of its comfort zone.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Quinnipiac (7-3) @ Siena (9-2)
Date: February 13, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
Type: MAAC Conference Game
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Siena -3.5 to -4
- Total: 143.5 to 144
- Moneyline: Siena -170, Quinnipiac +145
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The spread sits at a short number because the market respects Quinnipiac’s offensive firepower, but the total at 143.5 tells you everything about how this game actually plays out. Siena’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 82nd nationally at 102.9, which is legitimately solid. Quinnipiac’s adjusted offensive efficiency checks in at 107.8, ranking 173rd. That’s a comfortable matchup advantage for the home team when you factor in pace control.
Here’s where the math gets interesting: Siena’s offensive rating of 120.5 ranks 68th nationally, which means they’re efficient in the halfcourt despite the molasses pace. Quinnipiac’s defensive rating of 102.8 ranks 131st—not terrible, but not equipped to handle a team that executes in the halfcourt like Siena does. The Saints get 5.3 assists per game from Justice Shoats, ranking 61st nationally, and they move the ball with purpose even when the shot clock’s winding down.
The four-point spread reflects home court and stylistic advantage, but it’s also accounting for Quinnipiac’s ability to shoot from distance. The Bobcats rank 36th nationally in three-point percentage at 37.8%, led by a backcourt that can get hot. That’s the equalizer here—if Jaden Zimmerman and Asim Jones catch fire from deep, they can manufacture points even in a rock fight. But Siena defends the three-point line at 28.9%, ranking 47th nationally in opponent three-point percentage. That’s not an accident. The Saints take away the perimeter, and that’s exactly what Quinnipiac needs to win this game.
Quinnipiac Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Quinnipiac’s identity is built on perimeter shooting and transition opportunities. They rank 48th in steals per game at 9.0 and 32nd in blocks at 5.0, which means they create chaos defensively and turn that into easy buckets. The problem? Siena doesn’t turn the ball over. The Saints average 11.2 turnovers per game, and in a game with only 58-60 possessions, you’re looking at maybe 8-10 transition opportunities max for Quinnipiac.
Zimmerman leads the way at 17.0 points per game, ranking 137th nationally, and Amarri Monroe adds 15.1 points with 6.7 rebounds. The Bobcats have balance, with five guys averaging between 9 and 17 points. But here’s the concern: their true shooting percentage ranks 238th at 54.5%, and their free throw shooting sits at 232nd nationally at 69.9%. In a grind-it-out game where every possession matters, you can’t leave points at the line.
Quinnipiac’s last five games show the volatility: a one-point nail-biter against Niagara, a seven-point loss at Marist, and a shootout loss to Sacred Heart where they gave up 98 points. They’re not built for low-possession warfare, and that’s exactly what they’re walking into.
Siena Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Siena wins by making you play their game, and they’ve been dominant doing it. The Saints are allowing 61.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally, and they do it by controlling tempo and defending the arc. Gavin Doty leads the scoring at 14.5 points per game, but this is a committee approach. Tasman Goodrick pulls down 7.8 rebounds per game, ranking 105th nationally, and the Saints win on the glass despite not being an elite rebounding team.
Justice Shoats is the engine here, ranking 61st nationally in assists at 5.3 per game. He dictates pace, runs the offense, and makes sure Siena gets quality looks in the halfcourt. The Saints shoot 46.7% from the field overall, ranking 121st, but they’re selective and efficient. Their offensive rating of 120.5 in such a slow pace environment tells you they’re executing at a high level.
The concern? Siena’s three-point shooting ranks 334th nationally at just 29.0%. If Quinnipiac packs the paint and forces them to beat them from deep, the Saints could struggle to score in the 70s. But here’s the thing—Siena doesn’t need to score 80 to win. They need to hold Quinnipiac to 65, and that’s absolutely within their capability.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two areas: pace control and three-point shooting. Siena’s going to slow this to a crawl, and Quinnipiac’s going to try to manufacture transition opportunities off steals and blocks. The Bobcats rank 48th in steals, but Siena’s not a turnover-prone team. If the Saints protect the ball and get back in transition, they eliminate Quinnipiac’s primary advantage.
On the other end, Quinnipiac needs to hit threes. They shoot 37.8% from deep, ranking 36th nationally, but Siena defends the arc at 28.9%, ranking 47th in opponent three-point percentage. That’s a strength-on-strength battle, and it tilts toward the home team. If Zimmerman and Jones go 3-for-15 from three, Quinnipiac’s not scoring 70 points in this environment.
The rebounding battle matters too. Quinnipiac averages 37.1 rebounds per game to Siena’s 34.5, but the Saints’ offensive rebounding percentage of 31.4% gives them second-chance opportunities in a game where possessions are gold. Tasman Goodrick’s 7.8 rebounds per game could be the difference if this comes down to a one-possession game.
Historically, these teams have split recent matchups, but Quinnipiac won three of the last four. That said, those games featured different rosters and circumstances. This version of Siena is built differently—more defensive, more disciplined, and more equipped to win ugly.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Siena -4 and the Under 144. This is a game where the home team’s identity overwhelms the visitor’s preferences. Quinnipiac wants to run, shoot threes, and create chaos. Siena’s going to walk the ball up, execute in the halfcourt, and force the Bobcats into contested jumpers. When you’re playing at 58.6 possessions per game and defending the arc like Siena does, four points is a comfortable margin.
The Under is the sharper play. Siena’s allowing 61.4 points per game, ranking 10th nationally, and Quinnipiac’s not built to grind out possessions in the halfcourt. I’m projecting something like 68-62 Siena, which sails under the total and covers the spread. The Saints protect home court, slow this to a crawl, and win by a touchdown in a game that feels closer than it actually is.
The Pick: Siena -4, Under 144
