It is a dangerous spot for the Richmond Spiders. They travel to face the nation’s 4th-leading scorer, Chandler Cuthrell, and an Elon squad that can score with anyone (86.7 PPG). Can the Spiders’ committee approach match the star power of the Phoenix, or will Elon’s rebounding dominance lead to a home upset?
The Setup: Richmond at Elon
Richmond’s laying 4.5 points on the road at Elon, and at first glance, this feels like a trap game. The Spiders are 8-1, rolling into a CAA opponent’s building in mid-December, and the betting market is basically saying “yeah, they’ll handle this comfortably.” But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, this line isn’t just tight because it’s a road game. It’s tight because Elon can actually score, and Richmond’s defense isn’t nearly as dominant as that 8-1 record suggests. I’m looking at an adjusted defensive efficiency that ranks 101st nationally for the Spiders, going up against an Elon offense that ranks 35th in adjusted offensive efficiency. That’s not a mismatch – that’s a problem.
Let me walk you through why this number makes me nervous if you’re thinking about backing Richmond, and why there might be legitimate value on the home dog here.
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency gap here tells a fascinating story. Richmond’s adjusted net efficiency sits at 8.7 (88th nationally), while Elon checks in at 4.1 (127th). That’s a 4.6-point difference in adjusted net efficiency, and we’re getting a 4.5-point spread. So the market is essentially saying the home court advantage and the efficiency gap cancel each other out almost perfectly.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Elon’s offensive firepower is legitimately elite for this level. That 117.7 adjusted offensive efficiency ranks 35th in the country according to collegebasketballdata.com. They’re averaging 86.7 points per game (50th nationally) despite playing at a slower pace – just 67.8 possessions per game (203rd). That means they’re incredibly efficient when they do have the ball. Their 55.1% effective field goal percentage ranks 82nd, and they’re hitting 36.6% from three (76th nationally).
Richmond’s defense? It’s solid but not spectacular. That 103.9 adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 101st. They’re allowing opponents to shoot 41.0% from the field (81st in opponent field goal percentage), which is decent, but Elon isn’t just any opponent. The Spiders have been excellent at defending the three-point line – holding teams to 28.8% (45th nationally) – but that’s going to be tested hard in this environment.
Do the math over 68-70 possessions at Elon’s pace, and you’re looking at a game where the Phoenix have multiple paths to 80+ points. That puts pressure on Richmond’s offense to keep up, and while they’re scoring 84.8 per game, their adjusted offensive efficiency of 112.6 ranks just 94th.
Richmond’s Situation
The Spiders are 8-1, but that one loss came at Furman by a single point, 73-72. They’ve been winning games with offensive balance – five players averaging between 7.8 and 11.3 points per game. Aiden Argabright leads at 11.3 PPG, followed by AJ Lopez and Jaden Daughtry at 10.8 each. That’s committee basketball, which can be great for consistency but problematic when you need someone to take over a tight road game.
Richmond’s offensive rating of 117.7 (95th) is solid, and they play at a decent pace – 71.9 possessions per game (71st nationally). They take care of the ball well with just 10.9 turnovers per game (76th). The issue is on the glass. That 27.7% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 303rd in the country. That’s brutal. Against an Elon team that ranks 50th in offensive rebounding percentage at 35.3%, the Spiders are going to get crushed in second-chance opportunities.
Their recent form shows a team that’s been in shootouts. They’ve scored 93, 86, 84, and 71 in their last four wins, allowing 84, 77, 76, and 66. They’re not locking anyone down – they’re just outscoring teams.
Elon’s Situation
The Phoenix are 5-4, but don’t let that record fool you. They’ve got a legitimate star in Chandler Cuthrell, who’s averaging 22.9 points per game – that ranks 4th in the entire country. When you have a guy who can get you 23 a night, you’ve always got a puncher’s chance, especially at home.
Elon’s supporting cast is solid. Randall Pettus II adds 15.6 PPG (249th nationally), and Ja’Juan Carr is facilitating at a high level with 4.8 assists per game (96th). That’s a point guard who can create for others and for Cuthrell specifically. Kacper Klaczek is a versatile forward averaging 9.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists – the kind of glue guy who makes winning plays.
The concern with Elon is obvious: that 113.6 adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 299th nationally. They’re allowing 79.2 points per game (299th) and opponents are shooting 45.9% against them (293rd in opponent field goal percentage). They can’t stop anybody. But at home, in a pace they control, with Cuthrell going off? They don’t need to stop Richmond completely – they just need to slow them down enough.
Their recent results show the volatility: beat Northern Illinois 85-79, destroyed Wofford 73-52, but lost to Furman 88-97 and Mercer 84-91. They’ll play you even in a track meet.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and the three-point line. Elon’s 35.3% offensive rebounding rate against Richmond’s 27.7% is an 8-point swing in possessions alone. Over a 68-possession game, that’s potentially 5-6 extra possessions for Elon. If they’re converting at their normal efficiency, that’s 10-12 extra points just from offensive rebounds. That’s massive.
The three-point matchup is fascinating. Richmond defends it extremely well (allowing just 28.8%, 45th nationally), but Elon shoots it at 36.6% (76th). Something’s gotta give. If Elon gets hot from deep at home – and Cuthrell is absolutely capable of going nuclear – this game gets away from Richmond fast.
The pace battle favors Richmond slightly. They want to play at 71.9 possessions while Elon prefers 67.8. But Elon’s at home, and home teams typically control tempo better. I’m expecting something around 69-70 possessions, which is right in Elon’s comfort zone.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Richmond has no answer for Cuthrell. They don’t have a lockdown perimeter defender, and Cuthrell is the 4th-leading scorer in college basketball. If he gets 25-28 points and Elon wins the rebounding battle, the Phoenix cover easily and might win outright.
My Play
The Pick: Elon +4.5 (-110) for 2 units
I keep coming back to those rebounding numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. An 8-percentage-point gap in offensive rebounding rate is enormous, and it’s going to give Elon extra possessions they’ll convert into points. Add in a legitimate star in Cuthrell who can take over a game, home court advantage, and a Richmond defense that ranks 101st in adjusted efficiency, and I’m not seeing why the Spiders should be favored by more than a possession.
The main risk here is if Richmond gets hot from three and Elon goes cold – that three-point defense for Richmond is legitimately elite. But Elon’s shown they can score in multiple ways, and with Cuthrell, Pettus, and Carr all capable of creating their own shot, I trust them to get to 80+ points at home.
I’m projecting this one at Richmond 82, Elon 81, which means we’re getting the right side with the points. Give me the Phoenix to keep this tight and potentially steal one at home. This number should be closer to 2.5, and we’re getting real value at 4.5.
