Rutgers vs. Minnesota Total Pick | CBB 2/18/24

When: Sunday, February 18th, 6:30 PM (ET)

Where: Williams Arena, MN, Minneapolis

TV: BTN

Point Spread: RUTGER +4/MINNST -4

Total: 132.5

Money Line: Rutgers Scarlet Knights +155/-192

Notable Injuries

Scarlet Knights

• Noah Fernandes (Questionable) Knee
• Mawot Mag (Questionable) Undisclosed

Golden Gophers

• Erick Reader (Out) Undisclosed

Recent Form

After winning their last game against Northwestern by a score of 63-60, Rutgers is now 14-10 overall and 6-7 in Big Ten play. They have won four games in a row and are 8-3 in non-conference games compared to 6-7 in the Big Ten.

On the road, the Scarlet Knights are 3-5 this season and have a scoring margin of -6.6 points per game. In their last ten games on the road, they are 4-6, and over their last five games, they have gone 2-3.

This season, the over/under record in Rutgers games is 7-17, and today’s over/under line of 132.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (137.2). Over their last three games, the average scoring total is just 121 points, and their last three over/under record is 1-2.

As the underdog this season, Rutgers has a 6-5 record vs. the spread, including a perfect 3-0 mark in their last three games. On the road, the Scarlet Knights are 4-4 ATS this year and 6-4 in their last 10 games as the underdog.

Minnesota will be looking to end a two-game losing streak when they take on Rutgers at home. The Golden Gophers have a record of 15-9 this season, including a mark of 13-3 at home. Their average scoring margin at home is +13.5 points per game.

So far, Minnesota has been favored 11 times this season, going 10-1 in those games. Their most recent game was an 84-76 loss to Purdue. Over their last ten home games, the Golden Gophers have gone 8-2.

This season, the over/under record for Minnesota games is 13-11, and today’s line of 132.5 is lower than the average over/under line in their games (143.9). So far, 20 of their games have finished with more points than today’s OU line. Over their last three games, the average scoring total is 149 points, and their OU record over their last ten games is 6-4.

Minnesota has been one of the best teams in the country against the spread this season, going 19-4-1. They have also been very good vs. the spread at home this year, posting a mark of 13-2-1. Over their last ten games as the favorite, the Golden Gophers have gone 8-1-1 vs. the spread.

Analysis

In their most recent game, the Rutgers offense concluded with only 63 points against Northwestern. Throughout the game, they made 6/14 three-point attempts and had a field goal percentage of 39.6%. Leading the team in scoring was Jeremiah Williams with 15 points. Jamichael Davis also added 11 points for the Scarlet Knights.

At present, the Scarlet Knights’ defense is nationally ranked 27th, allowing 64.8 points per game. In terms of field goal percentage allowed, Rutgers’ defense has allowed opponents to shoot 39.3% from the field, including a three-point shooting percentage allowed of 30.6% this season.

In their previous game, the Golden Gophers’ offense finished with 76 points, which is right in line with their current average of 76.1 points per contest. The Minnesota offense has been looking to get up shots from outside so far this season, averaging 23 three-point attempts per contest. Overall, they have connected on 35% of their looks from outside this season.

Currently, the Golden Gophers’ defense holds the 104th rank in the nation, allowing 69.2 points per game. In their most recent game, the Minnesota defense struggled to defend the three-point line, as Purdue knocked down 9 three-pointers on their way to 84 points.

Betting Trends

• Through their last ten road games, Rutgers has an ATS record of just 6-4. However, their overall record was 4-6 while averaging 64 points per game.
• In their last five home games, Minnesota has averaged 74 points per game while allowing 79. The team’s record in this stretch was 1-4 while going 4-1.
• The Scarlet Knights have played well in their last five games as the betting underdog, going 3-2 straight up and 4-1 against the spread.
• Through their last three games as the favorite, the Golden Gophers have an ATS record of 2-1 and a straight up mark of 2-1.

Rich Crew’s Total Pick

Arguably, the Scarlet Knights are playing their best ball of the season, but the road is a tough place to win on in this conference. The Golden Gophers have played well at home, going 13-3 straight up, but have struggled to put points on the board against good defenses. Rutgers has that kind of defense, ranking fourth in defensive efficiency. I’d lean toward taking Rutgers plus the points, but I think the better bet is on the total. Take the Under 132.5.