When a top-ranked road favorite meets a program that has won five straight in the head-to-head series at home, the spread becomes a battlefield of data versus history. Tuesday’s A-10 clash features a Billikens squad with elite shooting numbers looking to snap a long-standing skid at UD Arena, making it a critical spot for a best bet.
The Setup: Saint Louis at Dayton
Saint Louis is laying 4.5 to 5 points at Dayton on Tuesday night, and if you’re thinking this feels light for a ranked team on the road, you’re not alone. But here’s the thing: the Flyers have owned this matchup at home, winning five straight at UD Arena. The #23 Billikens come in at 25-2 with elite numbers across the board, but Dayton’s 18-9 record doesn’t tell the full story of how competitive they’ve been in this building.
When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, Saint Louis holds a massive 16-point net rating advantage—122.6 offensive rating (#25 nationally) against 97.5 defensive rating (#21). That’s legitimate top-20 territory on both ends. Dayton sits at 110.6 offensive (#142) and 101.6 defensive (#45), which makes them respectable but clearly overmatched on paper. The model projects Saint Louis by 13.8 points, meaning there’s an 8.8-point gap between what the numbers say and what the market is offering. That’s the kind of discrepancy that demands explanation.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 24, 2026, 7:00 PM ET
Location: University of Dayton Arena
Spread: Saint Louis -4.5 to -5
Total: 156.5
Moneyline: Dayton +180 | Saint Louis -220
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market is essentially telling you that home court at UD Arena is worth about 9 points in this matchup—far more than the standard 3.5-point adjustment. And you know what? The history backs it up. Dayton is 5-0 straight up in their last five home games against Saint Louis, and they’re 4-1 ATS in that stretch. The Flyers are also 6-1 straight up at home in their last seven overall, and the total has gone under in seven of their last eight home contests.
But here’s where it gets interesting: Saint Louis is 0-5 straight up in their last five trips to Dayton, yet they’re still getting respected by the market as a 4.5 to 5-point favorite. That tells you the efficiency gap is too large to ignore. The Billikens rank #18 nationally in adjusted net rating. Dayton sits at #88. That’s a 70-spot difference between these programs right now.
The pace matchup favors a moderate tempo—Saint Louis runs at 72.9 possessions per game (#10 nationally) while Dayton slows things to 66.8 (#190). The blended projection sits around 70 possessions, which should limit some of the Billikens’ transition advantages but won’t completely neutralize their offensive firepower. The model projects a total of 162.9, sitting 6.4 points over the market number of 156.5. Given that the total has gone under in five straight head-to-head meetings at UD Arena, that’s a significant divergence worth examining.
Saint Louis Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Billikens are an offensive juggernaut, averaging 90.1 points per game (#5 nationally) while shooting 51.7% from the field (#4) and 40.8% from three (#2). Their 60.9% effective field goal percentage ranks third in the country, and their 63.8% true shooting percentage sits at #2. This isn’t a team that gets hot occasionally—they shoot the lights out consistently.
Robbie Avila anchors the frontcourt with 12.4 points and 4.8 rebounds, while Dion Brown adds 12.4 points and 6.7 boards. The balanced attack continues with Trey Green (12.3 PPG), Amari McCottry (11.6 PPG, 3.1 APG), and Quentin Jones (10.8 PPG). That’s five players in double figures, and they’re distributing 19 assists per game (#6 nationally) with an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.51.
Defensively, Saint Louis is even more impressive. They rank #1 nationally in opponent field goal percentage at 36.3% and #3 in opponent three-point percentage at 27.7%. Their 93.4 defensive rating leads the nation. They’re not just winning—they’re suffocating opponents on the perimeter and protecting the rim with 3.4 blocks per game.
Dayton Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Dayton’s home-court advantage at UD Arena is legitimate, but their overall profile is middling. They score 76.1 points per game (#174) on 45% shooting (#197) and 33.7% from three (#201). The 51.9% effective field goal percentage ranks #183, and their 109.2 offensive rating sits at #226 nationally. Those aren’t numbers that inspire confidence against an elite defense.
Javon Bennett leads the scoring at 16.2 points per game, followed by De’Shayne Montgomery at 15.4 points and 5.3 rebounds. Amaël L’Etang provides 12.4 points and 6.2 boards in the frontcourt. The depth drops off after that, with Keonte Jones (8.7 PPG) and Jordan Derkack (7.9 PPG, 3.2 APG) rounding out the rotation. They distribute just 14.3 assists per game (#151), and their 1.2 assist-to-turnover ratio trails Saint Louis significantly.
The Flyers do create havoc defensively with 8.9 steals per game (#25) and 4.2 blocks (#63), and their 102.2 defensive rating ranks #59 nationally. That’s respectable, but it’s a full four points worse than Saint Louis’s elite defensive rating. They’re allowing 71 points per game, which sounds solid until you realize they’re playing at the 190th-fastest pace in the country—opponents just aren’t getting enough possessions to expose them.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Dayton’s home-court mystique can overcome a massive talent and efficiency gap. Saint Louis shoots 6.7 percentage points better from the field and 7.1 points better from three. They rebound better (41.9 to 33.0), assist better (19.0 to 14.3), and defend at an elite level. The Billikens hold a 21-point advantage when you match their offense against Dayton’s defense, compared to just a 13-point edge going the other way.
The concerning trend for Saint Louis backers is their 6-12-1 ATS mark on the road and their 1-4 ATS record in their last five trips to Dayton. They’re also just 4-4-1 ATS in true road games this season. But they’re 8-1 straight up on the road, which suggests they’re winning but not covering inflated numbers. At 4.5 to 5 points, this isn’t an inflated number—it’s actually light based on the efficiency data.
Dayton’s 7-8 ATS home record and 3-7 ATS away mark tells you they’re better at home but still not covering consistently. They’re 12-15 ATS overall, which means they’re routinely failing to meet market expectations. The under trend is real—it’s hit in seven of eight home games and five straight against Saint Louis at UD Arena. With a projected pace in the low 70s and Dayton’s ability to muck things up defensively, that 156.5 total looks vulnerable.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m taking Saint Louis -4.5 and leaning under 156.5. The efficiency gap is too wide, and while Dayton’s home dominance in this series is real, this Saint Louis team is significantly better than previous iterations. The Billikens rank in the top 25 nationally in both adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. Dayton doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep pace if this game stays in the 70-possession range.
The under makes sense given the historical trend and Dayton’s deliberate pace. Saint Louis will try to push tempo, but the Flyers will grind possessions and force contested shots. I’d rather lay the short number with the superior team than try to get cute with a Dayton squad that’s 12-15 ATS on the season. The model sees 8.8 points of value here, and while UD Arena is tough, elite efficiency usually wins out over home-court vibes in conference play.
The Pick: Saint Louis -4.5 | Lean: Under 156.5
