The public is still buzzing about Saint Peter’s five-point win over Siena three weeks ago, but laying 5.5 with the Saints on Sunday is the smart ATS pick for bettors who play the numbers over the narrative. We’re moving the venue to Albany, and the 10-point swing in the spread from the Jersey City matchup is a cold reflection of Siena’s superior scoring metrics.
The Setup: Saint Peter’s at Siena
Siena’s laying 5.5 at home against Saint Peter’s on Sunday afternoon, and something doesn’t add up here. The Peacocks just beat these same Saints by five points three weeks ago in Jersey City, and now we’re supposed to believe the home court swing is worth more than ten points? Look, I respect MVP Arena as much as the next guy, but when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread feels light for Siena. The Saints check in at #177 in adjusted net rating compared to Saint Peter’s #239, a gap of 5.4 points before we even factor in home court. My model projects Siena by 9.8, which means we’ve got a 4.3-point discrepancy with the market. That’s not nothing in a conference grind.
This is a MAAC rematch with legitimate conference tournament seeding implications. Siena sits at 18-10 with a better efficiency profile across the board, while Saint Peter’s limps in at 15-10 despite owning the nation’s top offensive rebounding rate at 39.1%. The question isn’t whether Siena should be favored—it’s whether this number properly reflects the gap between these teams.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: Sunday, February 22, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET
Location: MVP Arena, Albany, NY
Conference: MAAC
Current Spread: Siena -5.5
Total: 136.5
Moneyline: Siena -230, Saint Peter’s +190
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market landed on 5.5 because of that February 7th result—Saint Peter’s 70, Siena 65. Bookmakers are respecting recent head-to-head history, and bettors have short memories. But efficiency metrics tell a different story about who these teams actually are.
Siena ranks #172 in adjusted offensive efficiency compared to Saint Peter’s #257. That’s an 85-spot gap. Defensively, Siena checks in at #183 while the Peacocks sit at #211. The Saints are better on both sides of the ball when you adjust for strength of schedule. Their offensive rating of 108.9 dwarfs Saint Peter’s 104.5, and in a projected 63-possession crawl, every possession matters exponentially.
The pace factor is critical here. Saint Peter’s plays at 64.1 possessions per game (#307 nationally), while Siena grinds even slower at 61.0 (#363). When you blend these tempos, you’re looking at roughly 62-63 possessions. In a game with limited possessions, the team with better shooting efficiency typically covers. Siena’s true shooting percentage of 55.7% crushes Saint Peter’s 52.2%—that’s a 3.5-point gap in shooting quality. Their effective field goal percentage advantage is even wider at 4.4 points.
The one legitimate concern? Saint Peter’s crashes the offensive glass like maniacs. That 39.1% offensive rebounding rate ranks first nationally, while Siena sits at 30.2% (#209). In a slow-paced game, second-chance points could keep this closer than the efficiency numbers suggest. But I’m not convinced that alone justifies a four-point model discrepancy.
Saint Peter’s Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Peacocks do exactly two things well: they defend respectably (104.3 defensive rating, #90 nationally), and they obliterate teams on the offensive glass. That #1 offensive rebounding rate isn’t a typo—they’re getting 39.1% of their own misses back, which is absurd at any level.
Guard Brent Bland leads the way at 15.8 points per game, but the shooting numbers across this roster are brutal. Saint Peter’s ranks #349 in field goal percentage (40.8%) and #346 in effective field goal percentage (47.1%). They’re not making shots consistently, which is why that offensive rebounding becomes so critical to their offensive identity.
TJ Robinson adds 12.5 points per game, while Bryce Eaton distributes at 4.0 assists per game (#163 nationally). They generate 9.4 steals per game (#13), so they’ll create some chaos defensively. But in a half-court grind against a disciplined Siena team that only turns it over 10.4 times per game (#63), I’m not sure where the offensive juice comes from.
Their last five games show volatility: losses to Iona and Sacred Heart, wins over Fairfield and Manhattan, plus that five-point win over Siena. They’re 3-2, but the efficiency profile suggests they’re playing above their heads.
Siena Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Siena’s efficiency numbers paint the picture of a legitimately solid mid-major program. They rank #100 in offensive rating (115.2) and #173 in defensive rating (107.6). That’s a balanced profile that doesn’t rely on one dimension.
Gavin Doty leads at 14.5 points and 5.8 boards per game, but the real engine here is Justice Shoats. He’s distributing 5.3 assists per game (#61 nationally) while scoring 12.7 points. Tasman Goodrick provides interior presence with 10.4 points and 7.8 rebounds (#105), giving them legitimate size inside.
The Saints shoot 46.6% from the field (#107) compared to Saint Peter’s 40.8% (#349). That six-point gap in field goal percentage is massive in a low-possession game. They’re also better from the free throw line at 75.0% (#82), which matters late in tight games.
Their last five shows some wobbles: losses to Merrimack and Quinnipiac, plus that home loss to Saint Peter’s. But they bounced back with wins over Marist and Iona. They’re 2-3 in their last five, which probably explains why this number isn’t higher. The market is punishing recent results rather than evaluating true talent.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game will be decided in the 61-63 possession range, which means every possession carries roughly 1.5-2.0 points of value. In that environment, shooting efficiency becomes paramount. Siena’s 3.5-point true shooting advantage and 4.4-point effective field goal percentage edge should manifest clearly.
The wild card is Saint Peter’s offensive rebounding. If they’re getting 12-15 second-chance points, they can stay within this number despite inferior shooting. But Siena’s not a terrible defensive rebounding team—they’re just not elite. The Peacocks will get their offensive boards, but I’m not convinced it’s enough to overcome a 5.4-point net rating gap.
Defensively, both teams are competent but not dominant. Saint Peter’s allows 42.5% shooting (#85), while Siena allows 43.1% (#112). The difference is Siena’s offense can actually capitalize on possessions, while Saint Peter’s struggles to score in the half court.
The February 7th result looms large, but context matters. That was in Jersey City, where Saint Peter’s had home court. Now we flip the script to Albany, and Siena gets the 3.5-point home edge. My model already bakes that in and still projects Siena by 9.8. The market at 5.5 is respecting recency bias over underlying metrics.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: Siena -5.5 (-110)
I’m laying the points with the home team. The efficiency gap is real, the shooting advantage is substantial, and the pace favors the team that executes better in the half court. Saint Peter’s can crash the offensive glass all they want, but if they’re shooting 40.8% from the field, those second chances only get you so far.
My model projects Siena by 9.8 with 57% confidence, which means we’ve got nearly four points of value on this spread. In a conference game with tournament seeding implications, I’ll trust the team with better metrics on both ends of the floor. The 136.5 total feels about right given the projected 133.5, so I’m staying away from that. But this spread? Siena covers at home in a low-possession grind where shooting quality decides outcomes.
Final Score Projection: Siena 70, Saint Peter’s 63
