The Redhawks are narrow home favorites in what the market sees as a toss-up. Check out our expert prediction for San Francisco vs. Seattle U as we analyze Brayden Maldonado’s impact and the Dons’ road struggles.
The Setup: San Francisco at Seattle U
Seattle U is catching just 1.5 points at home against San Francisco in a WCC matchup that’s essentially being priced as a coin flip, and I can already hear the skepticism: How is a 7-2 home team only getting a point and a half? Here’s the thing – this line is telling us the oddsmakers see these teams as dead even, and when I dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, I understand the hesitation. But there’s a clear edge here that the surface records aren’t showing you.
Both teams sit in similar territory in adjusted net efficiency – San Francisco at #118 with a 5.0 rating, Seattle U at #110 with 5.8. That’s essentially a push in the big picture. But when you start breaking down how these teams generate their numbers and where this game will actually be decided, the Redhawks have some massive advantages that make laying just 1.5 at home look like a gift.
Let me walk you through why Seattle U covers this number at home.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: San Francisco (6-4) @ Seattle U (7-2)
Date: December 28, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Venue: Redhawk Center, Seattle, WA
DraftKings:
Spread: Seattle U -1.5
Total: 144.5
Moneyline: Seattle U -110, San Francisco -110
Bovada:
Total: 142.5
Moneyline: Seattle U -130, San Francisco +110
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The efficiency numbers from collegebasketballdata.com tell us these are evenly matched teams overall, but the devil is in the details of how they get there. San Francisco posts a 109.9 adjusted offensive efficiency (#135) against a 104.8 adjusted defensive efficiency (#113). Seattle U comes in at 108.8 offensive (#154) and 103.0 defensive (#85). That defensive gap is real – the Redhawks rank 28 spots better on the adjusted defensive side.
But here’s where this gets interesting: Look at the raw defensive ratings. Seattle U is allowing just 95.5 points per 100 possessions (#37 nationally) compared to San Francisco’s 112.4 (#282). That’s not just a small gap – that’s a 17-point chasm per 100 possessions. Even accounting for strength of schedule in the adjusted numbers, Seattle U has been significantly better at preventing points.
The shooting splits reinforce this. Seattle U ranks #15 nationally in field goal percentage at 52.0% and #17 in effective field goal percentage at 59.0%. San Francisco is solid but not elite – 45.3% from the field (#182) and 53.8% eFG% (#117). When you’re shooting nearly seven percentage points better from the field, that compounds over 60-70 possessions into a significant scoring advantage.
Here’s what makes this line feel short: Seattle U does everything more efficiently on offense while playing considerably better defense. The only reason this isn’t a bigger number is San Francisco’s better resume in adjusted metrics, but I keep coming back to those raw efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore.
San Francisco’s Situation
The Dons come in at 6-4 with some quality wins but also some head-scratching losses. They lost at home to North Alabama by two and dropped a road game at Saint Louis. What they do well is defend – they rank #74 nationally in opponent points per game at 67.9 and #69 in opponent field goal percentage at 40.4%. That defensive foundation keeps them in games.
Offensively, San Francisco is led by Ryan Beasley’s 13.0 points per game and Mookie Cook’s 11.7 points with 6.0 rebounds. But here’s the problem: This is a brutally slow team. They rank #346 in pace at just 60.3 possessions per game. That’s not just slow – it’s glacial. They’re trying to grind games into the mud and win with defense.
The Dons shoot it well from three at 36.5% (#78), which gives them a puncher’s chance in any game. But their offensive rebounding is weak at 29.7% (#236), meaning when they miss, they’re not getting second chances. Against a Seattle U team that defends well and controls tempo, that becomes a major issue.
Seattle U’s Situation
The Redhawks are rolling at 7-2 with five straight wins, including quality victories over Washington and UTEP at home. What jumps off the page is their offensive efficiency – they rank #15 nationally in field goal percentage and #21 in three-point percentage at 39.4%. Brayden Maldonado leads the way at 17.7 points per game (#102 nationally), with Will Heimbrodt adding 14.9 (#309).
But it’s the defensive end where Seattle U really separates itself. They rank #37 in defensive rating at 95.5 and #44 in opponent points allowed at just 65.9 per game. They’re active – 8.9 steals per game (#56) and 4.8 blocks (#44). That’s not just good defense, it’s disruptive defense that creates transition opportunities.
Seattle U plays at a significantly faster pace than San Francisco – 68.9 possessions per game (#166) compared to the Dons’ 60.3. That’s nearly nine more possessions per game. In a game where Seattle U shoots more efficiently and gets more possessions, the math starts to tilt heavily in their favor. They’re also at home in the Redhawk Center, where they’ve been dominant this season.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on pace and shooting efficiency. San Francisco wants to slow this game down to 60 possessions and grind it out. Seattle U wants to push tempo and get into the high 60s in possessions. Based on the collegebasketballdata.com numbers, we’re probably looking at somewhere around 64-65 possessions as a compromise.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Seattle U’s elite shooting against San Francisco’s defense. Yes, the Dons defend well overall, but they’re allowing 40.4% from the field. Seattle U is shooting 52.0% on the season. Even if San Francisco slows them down a bit, the Redhawks are still going to generate high-quality looks and convert at an elite rate.
The three-point battle favors Seattle U as well. They’re shooting 39.4% from deep (#21) while San Francisco allows 32.9% (#188). That’s a seven-percentage-point edge for the home team. Over 20-25 three-point attempts, that’s the difference between making 8 and making 10. That’s a six-point swing right there.
San Francisco’s best path to victory is forcing turnovers and winning the rebounding battle, but Seattle U only turns it over 12.3 times per game and the Dons don’t crash the offensive glass effectively. The turnover margin isn’t going to be decisive here.
My Play
The Pick: Seattle U -1.5 (-110) for 2 units
I’ve considered the pace differential, the similar adjusted efficiency numbers, and San Francisco’s defensive capability, and Seattle U’s shooting advantage is still too massive to ignore. When you’re hitting 52% from the field and nearly 40% from three at home against a team that’s solid but not elite defensively, you win those games by more than a possession.
The main risk here is if San Francisco completely dictates tempo and turns this into a 58-possession rock fight where every possession matters and variance can swing the outcome. But even in that scenario, Seattle U’s superior shooting gives them the edge in close games.
I’m projecting Seattle U 73, San Francisco 68. The Redhawks get enough separation in the second half behind Maldonado and Heimbrodt, and they cover the short number at home. This line should be closer to -3 or -3.5 based on the shooting and defensive gaps. Getting it at -1.5 is value, and I’m taking it with confidence.
