South Alabama is playing for the top seed in the Sun Belt, and Bryan Bash is happily laying the 5.5 points against a Southern Miss team that hasn’t won a game away from Hattiesburg in nearly two months.
The Setup: Southern Miss at South Alabama
South Alabama’s laying 5 at home against Southern Miss on Friday night, and the efficiency numbers tell you exactly why this spread isn’t higher. The Jaguars check in at #174 in adjusted net rating while the Golden Eagles sit at #241, but here’s the thing—that 5-point spread assumes Southern Miss can keep this competitive on the road, where they’ve been absolutely brutal at 4-12 overall and 0-5 straight up in their last five away games. When you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, South Alabama holds a clear 5.7-point net rating edge, and the model projects them winning by 4 points even after accounting for home court. This line is basically begging you to lay the points with the home favorite, but the Golden Eagles’ offensive rebounding edge (30.6% to 23.6%) creates just enough chaos to make this interesting.
The market settled at South Alabama -5 to -5.5 depending on your book, with the total sitting at 142.5 to 143. That’s a significant drop from the model’s 137.1 projection, and we need to talk about why that gap exists.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 27, 2026, 8:30 PM ET
Location: Mitchell Center, Mobile, AL
Conference: Sun Belt
Current Spread: South Alabama -5 to -5.5
Total: 142.5-143
Moneyline: South Alabama -210, Southern Miss +175
Records:
Southern Miss: 15-15 overall, 4-12 away, 13-15 ATS
South Alabama: 21-9 overall, 11-3 home, 16-12 ATS
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The 5-point spread reflects South Alabama’s clear efficiency advantage, but it’s not accounting for the stylistic wrinkle that makes this game dangerous for bettors. South Alabama ranks #143 in adjusted defensive efficiency and holds opponents to just 38.1% from the field (#4 nationally). That defensive prowess is real—they’ve allowed 69.1 points per game, good for #62 in the country. Southern Miss counters with a 30.6% offensive rebounding rate (#187) that creates second-chance opportunities against a South Alabama team that ranks #354 in offensive rebounding percentage at just 23.6%.
Here’s where the pace conversation matters. The model projects 64 possessions based on Southern Miss playing at 65.9 (#227) and South Alabama grinding at 62.2 (#353). That’s a rock fight, and in rock fights, variance increases. The Jaguars’ turnover rate advantage is massive—they rank #2 nationally with just 8.8 turnovers per game and a 0.1 turnover ratio, while Southern Miss coughs it up 13.3 times per game (#322) with a 0.2 ratio (#331). That 10-point turnover edge in the model isn’t just noise—it’s the difference between South Alabama controlling tempo and Southern Miss creating transition opportunities off their own mistakes.
The market total of 143 assumes these teams can push toward 72 points each, but both offenses rank outside the top 200 in adjusted efficiency. South Alabama sits at #215 with a 107.0 offensive rating, while Southern Miss checks in at #267 with 103.8. The model’s 137.1 projection makes more sense when you consider South Alabama’s defensive identity and the crawling pace.
Southern Miss Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
The Golden Eagles live and die with Tylik Weeks (17.7 PPG) and Isaac Taveras (16.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG), but their offensive structure is fundamentally broken. They rank #330 in assists per game at just 11.7, meaning they’re not creating quality looks through ball movement. The 29.7% three-point shooting (#354) is borderline catastrophic, and while their 49.5% effective field goal percentage isn’t terrible, it’s not good enough to overcome their turnover issues.
What keeps Southern Miss in games is their ability to crash the glass. That 30.6% offensive rebounding rate creates extra possessions, and against a South Alabama team that doesn’t prioritize defensive rebounding, it’s their best path to covering. They’ve gone 11-3 at home but 4-12 on the road for a reason—when they can’t control the boards or force turnovers (7.8 steals per game, #74), they don’t have a secondary scoring engine.
The recent form is concerning. They’re 0-5 straight up in their last five road games, and they just lost to South Alabama 84-78 on February 13th at home. That game went over 136.5, which tells you Southern Miss couldn’t slow down the Jaguars even in their own building.
South Alabama Breakdown: The Counterpoint
South Alabama’s identity is simple: defend, don’t turn it over, and execute in the halfcourt. That 38.1% opponent field goal percentage is elite, and they complement it with 31.6% three-point defense (#59). Chaze Harris (14.2 PPG, 5.2 APG) runs the show, while Adam Olsen (16.1 PPG) and Peyton Law (12.8 PPG, 6.0 RPG) provide scoring balance. The 47.0% field goal shooting (#74) and 53.4% effective field goal percentage (#106) show they’re efficient when they do shoot.
The concern is their free throw shooting—66.5% ranks #347 nationally, which matters in close games. They also don’t create many fast break opportunities (308 points) or dominate the offensive glass, so they’re reliant on halfcourt execution. That’s fine when you’re playing at 62.2 possessions per game, but it limits your ceiling.
They’re 7-3 in their last 10 games and 11-6 in conference play, but they’ve covered just 6-6 at home against the spread. The recent 89-54 demolition of UL Monroe showed their upside, but losses to Texas State (82-90) and Marshall (80-84) revealed they can be pushed by teams that match their physicality.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to whether Southern Miss can create enough second-chance points to offset South Alabama’s turnover advantage and defensive efficiency. The Jaguars’ 1.37 assist-to-turnover ratio dwarfs Southern Miss’ 0.88, and in a 64-possession game, every extra possession matters. South Alabama projects to score 69.5 points at 108.5 points per 100 possessions, while Southern Miss projects to 67.6 points at 105.6 per 100.
The head-to-head history heavily favors South Alabama—they’re 9-1 straight up and 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings, including 5-0 straight up in their last five at home. The total has gone under in 8 of the last 10 meetings at Mitchell Center, which aligns with the model’s 137.1 projection being 5.9 points under the market number.
Southern Miss’ road struggles (0-5 straight up in last five away games) and South Alabama’s home dominance (11-3 overall, 5-1 in last six at home) create a clear narrative, but that 7-point offensive rebounding edge for the visitors is real. If Southern Miss shoots even 33% from three instead of their season average of 29.7%, they can hang around.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: Under 142.5
I’m not laying 5 with South Alabama in a game where Southern Miss has a legitimate offensive rebounding edge and can muck this up. The model projects 137.1 total points, nearly 6 points under the market number, and the recent head-to-head trends support it—the under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings at Mitchell Center. Both teams rank outside the top 200 in adjusted offensive efficiency, the pace projects to just 64 possessions, and South Alabama’s defensive identity (38.1% opponent FG%, #4 nationally) should keep Southern Miss in the 60s.
The under has hit in 5 of South Alabama’s last 7 home games, and Southern Miss’ road offense has been anemic (64.54 points per game away from home against home defenses). Give me the under 142.5, and I’ll sleep fine knowing both teams struggle to create efficient offense in the halfcourt.
