TCU Horned Frogs vs. Kansas State Wildcats Prediction ATS

by | Mar 9, 2023 | cbb

TCU Horned Frogs (20-11 SU, 15-15 ATS) vs. Kansas State Wildcats (23-8, 20-11), 3/9/23
When: 9:30 pm ET Thursday, March 9
Where: T-Mobile Center
CBB Betting Line: TCU -2.5/K State +2.5
Over/under: 147

The Big 12 Conference tournament offers up an interesting game to watch and bet when TCU takes on Kansas State in a quarterfinal match Thursday night in Kansas City. Both these teams are already pretty good bets to make next week’s NCAA tournament, but a run deep into this conference tourney wouldn’t hurt. And this should be a close one, considering these teams have split their last ten meetings.
Which way are we going here with our free college basketball betting pick?

College Basketball Betting Odds

Thursday’s NCAA basketball betting market opened Texas Christian at -2.5 over Kansas State, with an over/under of right around 147. Both figures were holding steady in the early betting action
According to Sagarin’s CBB ratings at the Wildcats should actual-ly be favored by a half-point for this match-up.

TCU Betting Preview

The Horned Frogs won three of four games into March but ended their regular sea-son with a thud, losing at Oklahoma, the worst team in the Big 12 this season, 74-60 last Saturday. TCU, favored by two points, fell down 17-2 out of the gate and never recovered. The Frogs trailed 38-21 at the half and never got closer than 12 from there in a thoroughly disgusting performance.
Texas Christian shot just 38 percent from the floor last Saturday while allowing the Sooners to shoot 50 percent.
Back in February, the Frogs lost four games in a row to Oklahoma State, this Kansas State team 82-61, Baylor, and Iowa State. Then they won three of their next four. Then they laid an egg last Saturday. So they’ve been up and down a bit as of late.

A few weeks ago, TCU’s leading scorer Mike Miles (17 PPG) missed several games with an injury but he’s back now. On the season, the Frogs are 17-5 SU, 13-8-1 ATS with Miles, 3-5 SU, and 2-6 ATS without him.

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Kansas State Betting Preview

The Wildcats, meanwhile, just had a four-game winning streak snapped by an 89-81 loss at West Virginia last Saturday. Kansas State scored the first eight points of the game but trailed 39-37 at the half. The Wildcats hung within a couple of buckets until midway through the second half but faded from there.

K State allowed the Mountaineers to shoot 51 percent from the floor Saturday and turned the ball over 20 times.
Two games ago, the Wildcats beat Oklahoma 85-69 and covered at -7. Three games ago, they won at Oklahoma State outright 73-68 as four-point dogs. And before that they beat Baylor and Iowa State.
Big-picture, both these teams are headed to the upcoming NCAA tournament.

TCU-Kansas State Recent History

These teams have split their last four meetings, both SU and ATS. They also split two meetings this season, winning and covering at home. The Frogs won 82-68 in January in Forth Worth, while the Wildcats won 82-61 in February in Manhat-tan.

Totals Report

  • The Unders are 6-2 over TCU’s last eight games, in part because of some high – possibly inflated – totals.
  • The Unders are 6-3 over K-State’s last nine games, also thanks in part to some big numbers.
  • The Unders are 6-2 over the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Free College Basketball Betting Pick

Kansas State’s going a little better than TCU as of late, shoots the ball better from 3 than the Frogs, and plays a little better defense. And Sagarin’s ratings like K-State. We’re betting on the Wildcats Thursday night.

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