Temple heads to the John M. Belk Arena for a non-conference road test against an 8-2 Davidson squad that has been nearly perfect at home. Bryan Bash breaks down the defensive efficiency gap and whether Temple’s top-ranked turnover discipline can overcome Davidson’s elite three-point shooting.
The Setup: Temple at Davidson
Davidson’s laying 5.5 points at home against Temple on Wednesday night, and at first glance, this looks like a classic mid-major toss-up. Both teams playing in the 66-possession range, similar offensive ratings around 114, and a spread that suggests a tight game. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this line isn’t telling the whole story about how lopsided this matchup actually is.
Temple comes in at 4-5 with an adjusted defensive rating that ranks 332nd nationally. That’s not a typo – 332nd out of 362 Division I teams. Davidson sits at 7-2 with elite three-point shooting at 38.8% (27th nationally) and an effective field goal percentage of 56.7% that ranks 48th in the country. Let me walk you through why this spread might actually be a few points too low.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Temple (4-5) @ Davidson (7-2)
Date: December 18, 2025
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: John M. Belk Arena, Davidson, NC
Spread: Davidson -5.5
Total: 144.5
Moneyline: N/A
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Here’s why this line makes sense on the surface but actually undervalues Davidson. The adjusted efficiency gap tells the real story. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Davidson’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 110.1 (132nd) while Temple checks in at 113.4 (86th). That favors the Owls, right? Not so fast.
The defensive side is where this game lives and dies. Davidson’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 107.9 ranks 179th nationally – perfectly respectable. Temple’s adjusted defensive efficiency? A brutal 115.8 that ranks 332nd in the country. That’s not just bad – it’s catastrophically bad for a team trying to win road games in December.
Here’s what that means in real terms: Temple allows 113.9 points per 100 possessions in raw defensive rating (299th nationally), while Davidson allows just 104.7 (161st). Do that math over 66 possessions – the pace both teams play at – and you’re looking at a nearly 6-point swing just from defensive efficiency. And that’s before we factor in Davidson’s home court advantage at Belk Arena.
The net efficiency ratings confirm it. Davidson sits at +2.1 adjusted net efficiency (149th nationally) while Temple checks in at -2.4 (194th). That 4.5-point gap in adjusted efficiency should translate to roughly a 6-7 point spread on a neutral court, and we’re getting Davidson at home for just 5.5.
Temple’s Situation
The Owls do have some offensive weapons. Derrian Ford leads the way at 17.4 points per game (110th nationally), and Temple’s turnover rate is exceptional – they rank 7th nationally with just 8.9 turnovers per game. That’s legitimate. When you take care of the ball and shoot 35.0% from three (133rd), you can score on anybody.
But here’s where it falls apart: Temple cannot defend the three-point line. They allow opponents to shoot 37.3% from deep, which ranks 333rd nationally – dead last among teams we’re tracking. Their opponent field goal percentage of 46.5% ranks 313th. Those aren’t just bad numbers – they’re the kind of numbers that get you destroyed when you face an elite shooting team.
The rebounding is also a major concern. Temple grabs just 33.4 boards per game (301st) with an offensive rebounding rate of 29.2% (256th). They’re not creating second-chance opportunities, and they’re not particularly physical on the glass. Recent form shows vulnerability too – losses to Villanova (56-74), Saint Joseph’s (69-70), and Rhode Island (75-90) before beating up on overmatched opponents.
Davidson’s Situation
Davidson does one thing at an elite level: they shoot the absolute lights out from three-point range. That 38.8% mark from deep ranks 27th nationally, and their 56.7% effective field goal percentage (48th) shows they’re getting quality looks consistently. Sam Brown, Roberts Blums, Hunter Adam, and Nick Coval all hover around 10 points per game, which means Davidson spreads the floor and makes you defend all five guys.
The defensive numbers are solid across the board. Davidson holds opponents to 31.6% from three (135th nationally) and 45.2% overall (261st). They force 7.3 steals per game (175th) and generate 130 points off turnovers through nine games. That’s not lockdown defense, but it’s more than good enough when you’re shooting nearly 39% from three.
Home court matters here. Davidson’s 7-2 record includes quality wins, and their two losses came against legitimate opponents in Saint Mary’s and Utah State. They just blasted Mercyhurst 80-47 and handled The Citadel 79-63. They know how to take care of business at home against inferior competition.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
I keep coming back to those three-point shooting numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Davidson ranks 27th nationally in three-point percentage. Temple ranks 333rd nationally in three-point defense. This is the definition of strength-on-weakness.
Let’s quantify this: If Davidson takes 25 three-point attempts (reasonable for their pace) and shoots their season average of 38.8%, that’s 9-10 makes for 27-30 points from deep. Temple’s defense allows 37.3% from three, so we might even see Davidson exceed their average. If Temple shoots their 35.0% on similar volume, they’re looking at 8-9 makes for 24-27 points. That’s a 3-6 point swing just from three-point shooting efficiency.
The tempo matchup is neutral – both teams play at 66 possessions. That actually helps Davidson because it means fewer possessions for variance to creep in. The game becomes about execution, and Davidson executes better on both ends.
Temple’s one advantage – taking care of the basketball – matters less against a Davidson defense that ranks 175th in steals. The Wildcats aren’t forcing chaos; they’re just solid and disciplined. Temple needs chaos to win this game, and they’re not getting it.
My Play
I’m backing Davidson -5.5 for 2 units with confidence. This spread should be closer to 7 or 7.5 based on the efficiency metrics and the specific matchup dynamics. Temple’s inability to defend the three-point line against an elite shooting team is a recipe for a double-digit Davidson win.
The main risk here is if Temple’s ball security allows them to maximize possessions and Ford gets nuclear-hot for 30+ points. I’ve considered all of that, and the defensive gap is still too massive to ignore. Davidson’s balanced scoring attack and home court advantage should overwhelm Temple’s porous perimeter defense.
I’m projecting Davidson 79, Temple 71. That covers the 5.5 with room to spare and stays comfortably under the 144.5 total given the slower pace. This game lives and dies on Davidson’s three-point shooting against Temple’s inability to defend it, and that matchup screams Wildcats by 8-10 at home. Lay the points.
