Both of these teams are struggling to find the bottom of the net lately, and Bryan Bash is smelling a low-scoring grind, making the Under 145.5 his primary best bet for Thursday’s American Conference tilt.
The Setup: Temple at Florida Atlantic
Florida Atlantic’s laying 4.5 at home against Temple on Thursday night, and this number screams “dead-on” when you break down the efficiency metrics. The Owls are catching a struggling Temple squad that’s lost four straight and looks cooked down the stretch, while FAU sits at 10-4 ATS at home and owns a legitimate defensive edge. According to collegebasketballdata.com, Florida Atlantic holds a 5.4-point net rating advantage over the Owls—which lines up almost perfectly with this 4.5-point spread once you factor in home court. Temple’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks #230 nationally, and they’re walking into Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena against a team that’s #102 in adjusted defense. The pace will settle around 67 possessions, neither team pushes tempo hard, and this becomes a halfcourt execution game where FAU’s superior defensive metrics should control the outcome.
But here’s the wrinkle: Florida Atlantic’s lost four of their last five, and their leading scorer Devin Vanterpool is questionable with an undisclosed injury. That’s 17.0 PPG potentially sitting on the bench, and suddenly this spread looks a lot tighter than the efficiency numbers suggest.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game Time: February 26, 2026, 7:00 ET
Location: Eleanor R. Baldwin Arena, Boca Raton, FL
Matchup: American Conference Game
Betting Lines:
- Spread: Florida Atlantic -4.5
- Total: 145.5/146
- Moneyline: Florida Atlantic -210, Temple +170
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
The market nailed this one. Florida Atlantic’s adjusted net rating sits at +5.2 (ranked #114 nationally), while Temple checks in at -0.2 (#171). That’s a 5.4-point gap, add roughly 2-2.5 points for home court, and you land right around this 4.5-point spread. The pace projection of 67 possessions means we’re looking at a grind-it-out American Conference slugfest, not a track meet where variance explodes.
Temple’s offensive rating of 111.3 (#132) isn’t terrible, but their defensive rating of 111.5 (#230) is a massive liability. Florida Atlantic’s defense rates at 105.7 (#102)—that’s a 5.8-point defensive efficiency edge for the home team. When you match Temple’s offense against FAU’s defense, the Owls project to score just 72.9 points on 67 possessions. Florida Atlantic projects to 74.7 points against Temple’s porous defense.
The total sitting at 145.5/146 also tracks perfectly with the model projection of 147.5. Both teams have gone under in their recent home games—FAU’s gone under in five straight at home, Temple’s gone under in five of six on the road. The shooting percentages don’t suggest an offensive explosion: Temple’s effective field goal percentage ranks #260 nationally at 50.3%, while FAU sits at #147 with 52.7%. This isn’t a game where elite shooting creates separation—it’s a game where defensive execution and rebounding dictate the winner.
Temple Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Temple’s riding a four-game losing streak and averaging just 70.4 points during this skid. The offense has cratered—they shot 36.4% in their last game at Wichita State and scored just 57 points. Derrian Ford (17.4 PPG) remains their only consistent scoring threat, but he’s not getting enough help from Aiden Tobiason (14.3 PPG) or Jordan Mason (10.0 PPG, 3.9 APG).
The one legitimate strength Temple brings is ball security. They rank #8 nationally in turnovers per game at just 9.0, with a turnover ratio that ranks #9. Their assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 is solid, and they don’t beat themselves with careless possessions. That matters in a low-possession game where every trip counts.
But Temple can’t rebound. They rank #258 in rebounds per game at 34.1, and Florida Atlantic dominates the glass at 39.1 RPG (#37 nationally). Temple’s offensive rebounding percentage sits at 30.6% compared to FAU’s 31.5%, and on the defensive glass it’s even worse—23.7 defensive rebounds per game for Temple versus 26.8 for FAU. In a halfcourt game, second-chance points become critical, and Temple’s getting torched on the boards.
Temple’s 6-5 on the road this season, but they’re just 5-6 ATS away from home and 4-3 ATS in conference road games. The defense allows 70.8 PPG on the road, and they’re walking into a venue where FAU’s 11-5 straight up at home.
Florida Atlantic Breakdown: The Counterpoint
Florida Atlantic’s 3-7 in their last ten games, and the offense has stalled badly—they’re averaging just 73.5 PPG during this stretch compared to 80.0 on the season. They just lost to North Texas by one, scraped past UTSA in an ugly 60-52 win, and dropped home games to South Florida and Tulsa. The momentum is terrible.
The Vanterpool injury is the elephant in the room. He’s their leading scorer at 17.0 PPG and best rebounder at 7.6 RPG, and he’s listed as questionable. If he sits, Kanaan Carlyle (15.6 PPG, 3.2 APG) becomes the primary option, but there’s a significant drop-off after that. Isaiah Elohim (9.7 PPG) and Xander Pintelon (8.3 PPG) aren’t guys who can carry the offensive load.
But even with the recent struggles, FAU’s defensive foundation remains intact. They rank #88 nationally in opponent field goal percentage at 42.7%, and they’re #8 in blocks per game at 5.7. They protect the rim, they rebound (39.1 RPG ranks #37), and they force opponents into tough halfcourt possessions. Temple’s effective field goal percentage of 50.3% won’t scare anyone, and FAU’s length should disrupt their perimeter shooting.
Florida Atlantic’s 10-4 ATS at home this season and 8-3 ATS at home overall. They’ve covered in six of their last eight home games, and they beat Temple 79-73 earlier this season in the first meeting. The head-to-head history favors FAU 3-1 in the last four meetings, and they’ve averaged 78.75 PPG in those games while holding Temple to 74.0 PPG.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on the glass and defensive execution. Florida Atlantic’s rebounding edge of +5 boards per game becomes massive in a 67-possession contest. Temple’s #258 in rebounding, FAU’s #37—that’s not a small gap, that’s a chasm. Every offensive rebound extends possessions for FAU, and every defensive rebound Temple surrenders kills their already-struggling offense.
Temple’s one path to covering is taking care of the basketball. They rank #8 in turnovers per game, FAU ranks #246. If Temple can limit FAU’s transition opportunities and force them into halfcourt sets, they can keep this game ugly and low-scoring. Temple’s assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.4 beats FAU’s 1.13, and in a grind-it-out game, that discipline matters.
But Temple’s defense is the problem. They rank #230 in adjusted defensive efficiency, and they’re allowing 72.6 PPG over their last ten games. FAU’s offensive rating of 110.9 (#140) isn’t elite, but it’s good enough to exploit Temple’s defensive weaknesses. The Owls shoot 46.1% from the field (#134 nationally) compared to Temple’s 44.2% (#250), and that shooting gap compounds over 67 possessions.
The Vanterpool situation is critical. If he plays, FAU’s a comfortable cover. If he sits, this becomes a coin flip. Temple’s lost four straight, but three of those losses were by single digits—they’re competitive, they just can’t finish. FAU’s 11-5 at home, but they’ve lost four of five overall and look vulnerable.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m staying away from the side until we get clarity on Vanterpool. If he’s active, FAU -4.5 is a solid play—the efficiency gap is real, the rebounding edge is decisive, and Temple’s defense can’t stop anyone. But if Vanterpool sits, this spread shrinks to a pick’em in my mind, and I’m not laying points with a depleted FAU squad that’s lost four of five.
The play I love is UNDER 145.5. Both teams have gone under consistently at home and on the road in recent games. Temple’s averaging 70.4 PPG over their last ten, FAU’s at 73.5 PPG, and neither offense is clicking. The pace projects to just 67 possessions, both teams rank outside the top 250 in effective field goal percentage, and the model projects 147.5—right on the number. FAU’s gone under in five straight home games, Temple’s gone under in five of six road games, and this American Conference matchup screams defensive grind. Give me the under and don’t overthink it.
Best Bet: UNDER 145.5 (-110)
