The adjusted efficiency numbers for this Monday night clash at Allen Fieldhouse reveal a mismatch that goes beyond the win-loss records. While Kansas boasts the nation’s 8th-ranked defense and an adjusted net efficiency of 20.0, Towson struggles to score efficiently against quality competition (#211 AdjO). Bash analyzes why the massive 18-point efficiency gap justifies laying the heavy lumber in Lawrence.
The Setup: Towson at Kansas
Kansas is laying 17.5 points at home against Towson on Monday night, and I can already hear some of you thinking that’s a lot of points for a 7-3 team that’s been inconsistent this season. Look, I get it. The Jayhawks have three losses already, including that ugly 56-point performance against UConn. But here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this matchup is about as lopsided as it gets for a power conference team hosting a mid-major at Allen Fieldhouse.
Let me walk you through why this number not only makes sense, but might actually be a bit short. The adjusted efficiency gap here is massive – Kansas sits at 20.0 adjusted net efficiency, ranking 16th nationally, while Towson checks in at just 2.2, good for 147th. That’s an 18-point chasm in adjusted efficiency, and we’re being asked to lay 17.5. The math is telling us something important.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Towson @ Kansas
Date: December 16, 2025
Time: 9:00 PM ET
Location: Allen Fieldhouse, Lawrence, KS
Spread: Kansas -17.5
Total: 134.5/135
Records: Towson (6-4), Kansas (7-3)
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency data from collegebasketballdata.com paints a clear picture of two teams operating in completely different stratospheres. Kansas ranks 8th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency at 95.1, while their adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 115.2, good for 63rd in the country. That’s elite defense paired with above-average offense.
Now flip over to Towson. The Tigers rank 211th in adjusted offensive efficiency at 105.7 – that’s a 9.5-point disadvantage when facing Kansas’s 8th-ranked defense. Do that math over 67 possessions at Kansas’s pace, and you’re looking at a team that’s going to struggle mightily to crack 60 points.
Here’s why this line makes sense: Kansas is holding opponents to just 63.7 points per game, ranking 16th nationally in scoring defense. They’re allowing just 37.5% shooting from the field (16th) and an absurd 24.9% from three-point range, which ranks 6th in America. That’s not just good defense – it’s suffocating, elite-level rim protection and perimeter defense combined.
Towson, meanwhile, scores just 70.3 points per game against a schedule that hasn’t exactly been murderous. They rank 309th in three-point shooting at 30.0%, 309th in free throw shooting at 66.5%, and 304th in true shooting percentage. When you can’t shoot it from deep and you’re facing the 6th-best three-point defense in the country, you’re in for a long night.
Towson’s Situation
The Tigers come in at 6-4, but that record is deceiving. They just got throttled 61-86 at UCF, and they’ve lost to UC San Diego on the road as well. Tyler Tejada leads them in scoring at 18.8 points per game, ranking 63rd nationally, and Dylan Williamson adds 15.6 per contest. Those two can score, but they’re going to need a lot of help.
The concerning part for Towson is their offensive profile. They rank 353rd – dead last among teams tracked – in assists per game at just 10.5. That’s a massive red flag when facing an elite defense. They’re not moving the ball, they’re not creating for each other, and they’re going to have to rely on isolation scoring against a Kansas defense that ranks 6th in blocks per game at 6.4.
Towson does have one strength: they rank 59th in offensive rebounding percentage at 34.9%. That’s their best path to staying in this game – crashing the glass and generating second-chance points. But here’s the matchup problem: Kansas may rank 355th in offensive rebounding percentage, but on the defensive glass, they’re not giving up easy second chances when they need to lock in.
Kansas’s Situation
The Jayhawks are 7-3 with quality wins over Missouri, at Tennessee, and most recently at NC State in a thriller. Yes, they lost to UConn and scored just 56 points in that game, but that was against the best team in college basketball. Context matters.
Darryn Peterson leads Kansas at 20.0 points per game, and Flory Bidunga is a monster inside at 14.7 points and 9.0 rebounds per contest, ranking 44th nationally in rebounding. Tre White adds 14.3 points and 7.1 boards, while Melvin Council Jr. runs the show with 5.3 assists per game, ranking 59th in the country. This is a balanced, talented roster.
What stands out is Kansas’s defensive identity. They rank 6th nationally in opponent three-point percentage and 16th in opponent field goal percentage. They protect the rim with 6.4 blocks per game, and they force opponents into difficult shots. Their 95.5 defensive rating ranks 37th nationally, and when you adjust for schedule strength, they jump to 8th.
The one concern is Kansas’s offensive rebounding – they rank 355th at just 24.0%. But against a Towson team that ranks 150th in defensive efficiency, Kansas should generate enough clean looks to not need second-chance points. They shoot 75.6% from the free throw line (60th nationally), so if this game gets tight late, they can close at the stripe.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Towson’s ability to score against an elite Kansas defense, and I just don’t see it happening. Towson ranks 308th in three-point shooting at 30.0%, and Kansas ranks 6th in opponent three-point percentage at 24.9%. That’s a 5% difference, which over 25 three-point attempts becomes a 15-point swing right there.
I keep coming back to those offensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. Towson’s 105.7 adjusted offensive efficiency against Kansas’s 95.1 adjusted defensive efficiency is a recipe for a team struggling to reach 60 points. And at Allen Fieldhouse, where Kansas protects home court with ferocity, that environment matters.
The pace matchup slightly favors Towson – they play at 65.4 possessions per game (284th) while Kansas plays at 66.9 (244th). So we’re looking at roughly 67 possessions in this game. Kansas’s adjusted net efficiency of 20.0 suggests they should win by about 20 points in a neutral environment. At home? That number grows.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Towson ranks 353rd in assists per game, meaning they’re not a ball-movement team. Kansas ranks 6th in blocks per game and forces opponents into contested shots. When you can’t create for others and you’re facing elite rim protection, you’re going to see a lot of forced, low-percentage attempts. That’s a 25-point loss waiting to happen.
My Play
I’m laying the 17.5 points with Kansas, and I’m doing it with confidence. The efficiency gap is too massive, the defensive matchup is too lopsided, and we’re getting this game at Allen Fieldhouse where Kansas has every advantage.
The Pick: Kansas -17.5 (2 units)
I’m projecting Kansas 79, Towson 57. That’s a 22-point Kansas win that covers comfortably. The main risk here is if Towson gets hot from three and shoots well above their 30% season average, but Kansas’s 6th-ranked three-point defense should neutralize that threat.
Could Kansas come out flat after that emotional win at NC State? Sure. Could Towson’s 59th-ranked offensive rebounding percentage keep them in it with second-chance points? Possibly. I’ve considered all of that, and the 18-point adjusted efficiency gap is still too massive to ignore. Kansas wins this going away and covers the 17.5.
