Wagner is currently mired in a losing streak characterized by late-game collapses and catastrophic turnovers. Now, they face a LIU team that forces over 15 turnovers a game. Is the 10.5-point point spread enough, or is an LIU prediction of a blowout the only way to play this?
The Setup: Wagner at Long Island University
Long Island University is laying 10.5 points at home against Wagner on Monday night, and if you’re looking at the records and thinking this feels steep, I need you to pump the brakes. The Sharks are 5-4 while Wagner limps in at 2-6, but this isn’t about W-L columns—it’s about efficiency, and the gap here is wider than you think. According to collegebasketballdata.com, LIU holds a 3.6-point advantage in adjusted net efficiency (-2.7 vs. -6.3), which translates to roughly 4 points on a neutral floor. Add in home court and the pace differential we’re about to dissect, and suddenly this double-digit spread starts making a whole lot of sense. Wagner’s riding a five-game losing streak where they’ve dropped four games by two points or fewer, and that kind of close-game agony tells me they’re running out of gas in crunch time. LIU, meanwhile, has won four of their last five with three of those victories coming by single digits. This is a classic case of two teams heading in opposite directions, and the market knows it.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Wagner @ Long Island University
Date: January 26, 2026
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Venue: Steinberg Wellness Center, Brooklyn, NY
Spread: Long Island University -10.5
Total: 144.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
Let’s talk tempo first, because this is where Wagner’s going to get absolutely suffocated. The Seahawks play at a 58.9 pace that ranks 356th nationally—they’re dragging teams into the mud and making every possession feel like a root canal. Problem is, when you play that slow and turn it over 16.1 times per game (358th in the country), you’re giving your opponent extra possessions while limiting your own opportunities to score. That’s a recipe for getting blown out, not keeping games close. LIU plays at a 69.2 pace (157th), which means they’re going to push this game faster than Wagner wants. The Sharks generate 8.4 steals per game (79th nationally) and block 5.1 shots per contest (27th), so they’ve got the defensive playmakers to turn Wagner’s sloppy ball security into transition buckets.
Now let’s dig into the efficiency numbers, because this is where the spread gets justified. Wagner’s offensive rating sits at 116.8 (105th), which looks respectable until you realize their adjusted offensive efficiency is just 106.3 (199th). They’re padding stats against weak competition. Their defensive rating of 120.3 ranks 347th—they’re getting torched on that end. LIU’s adjusted defensive efficiency of 109.3 (210th) isn’t elite, but it’s a massive 3.3-point advantage over Wagner’s adjusted offense. When you’re getting a three-point edge on one end and Wagner’s defense is a sieve, you’re looking at a double-digit margin. The total of 144.5 feels about right given Wagner’s glacial pace, but I’m more interested in the spread.
Wagner Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
Let me give Wagner credit where it’s due: they can shoot the three. Their 37.1% mark from deep ranks 57th nationally, and Nick Jones is putting up 16.6 points per game to lead this squad. Jaden Baker dishes 4.2 assists per contest (139th in the nation), so there’s some playmaking ability here. They also rebound at an elite level with 40.2 boards per game (61st), which should theoretically give them second-chance opportunities.
But here’s the problem—none of that matters when you’re turning the ball over on 16.1 possessions per game and sporting a turnover ratio of 0.2 that ranks 362nd nationally. That’s catastrophic ball security, and against a LIU team that forces turnovers and converts them into 134 points off turnovers through nine games, Wagner’s going to be playing defense all night. Their offensive rating of 116.8 looks solid, but that adjusted number of 106.3 tells the real story—they’re not executing against competent competition. Five straight losses by a combined 10 points means they’re mentally fried in close games. When this one gets tight in the second half, I don’t trust them to execute.
Long Island University Breakdown: The Counterpoint
LIU’s offense isn’t going to blow you away—their 106.6 offensive rating ranks 266th—but they’ve got three guys who can get buckets. Jamal Fuller (15.6 PPG), Malachi Davis (15.4 PPG), and Greg Gordon (14.4 PPG) give them a balanced attack that doesn’t rely on one guy to carry the load. They shoot 48.7% from the field (62nd nationally) and 37.0% from three (60th), so they’re efficient when they get clean looks. Their 34.9% offensive rebound rate ranks 59th, meaning they’re crashing the glass and creating extra possessions.
Where LIU really separates itself is on the defensive end with their activity level. Those 8.4 steals per game and 5.1 blocks per contest mean they’re constantly disrupting opponents’ rhythm. They’ve allowed 81.6 points per game (333rd), which looks ugly on paper, but their adjusted defensive efficiency of 109.3 (210th) suggests they’re better than the raw numbers indicate. They’re forcing 15.1 turnovers per game and converting those mistakes into 134 points off turnovers. Against a Wagner team that coughs it up 16.1 times per night, LIU’s going to feast in transition. Four wins in their last five games, all coming down the stretch, tells me they know how to close.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game gets decided in two areas: transition opportunities and crunch-time execution. Wagner wants to slow this down to a crawl and grind out possessions, but LIU’s defensive pressure is going to force turnovers and push the pace. When Wagner turns it over—and they will, because they always do—LIU’s converting those mistakes into 121 fast break points through nine games. That’s where the Sharks build their cushion.
The second factor is late-game execution, and Wagner’s shown me nothing to suggest they can handle pressure situations. Five straight losses by a combined 10 points—including one-point defeats to Mercyhurst and St. Francis (PA)—means they’re folding when it matters most. LIU’s won four of five with three coming by single digits, including a 60-58 squeaker over Mercyhurst and a 67-63 win over St. Francis (PA). They’re battle-tested in close games and they know how to finish.
Wagner’s 37.1% three-point shooting keeps them in games early, but their turnover issues and defensive struggles (120.3 defensive rating, 347th nationally) mean they’re constantly playing from behind. LIU’s 48.7% field goal percentage and balanced scoring attack allows them to answer every Wagner run. The adjusted efficiency gap of 3.6 points becomes 7-8 points with home court, and in a game where LIU controls tempo and forces turnovers, that gap widens to double digits.
Bash’s Best Bet
I’m laying the 10.5 points with Long Island University, and I’m not sweating it. Wagner’s turnover issues are going to get exposed by LIU’s defensive pressure, and when you’re coughing it up 16.1 times per game against a team that generates 8.4 steals per contest, you’re asking to get run off the floor. The Seahawks have lost five straight, four by two points or fewer, which tells me they’re mentally exhausted and can’t execute down the stretch. LIU’s won four of five and they know how to close games.
The adjusted efficiency gap of 3.6 points becomes 7-8 with home court, and when you factor in the pace advantage and turnover differential, this feels more like a 12-14 point game than a coin flip. Wagner’s three-point shooting keeps them hanging around early, but by the second half, LIU’s pressure breaks them down. Give me the Sharks to cover at home. This one’s not close.
