Can Texas Tech’s elite defense stifle a Winthrop offense that’s padded its stats against weak competition? Bryan Bash dives into the efficiency numbers and provides his top ATS pick for Sunday’s matchup in Lubbock.
The Setup: Winthrop at Texas Tech
Texas Tech is laying 16.5 points at home against Winthrop on Saturday afternoon, and I can already hear some of you thinking that’s a lot of points for a Big 12 team that’s already dropped two games this season. Here’s the thing – when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this isn’t a case of inflated spreads against a mid-major. This is a legitimate talent and system gap that should manifest itself over 70 possessions in Lubbock.
The Red Raiders check in with an adjusted net efficiency of +18.4 (26th nationally), while Winthrop sits at +8.1 (91st). That’s a 10.3-point gap in adjusted efficiency, and we’re getting a spread that’s only about six points higher than that baseline expectation. Let me walk you through why Texas Tech should control this game from the opening tip and why I’m backing the Red Raiders to cover comfortably at United Supermarkets Arena.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Winthrop (5-5) @ Texas Tech (7-2)
Date: December 28, 2025
Time: 2:00 PM ET
Venue: United Supermarkets Arena, Lubbock, TX
Spread: Texas Tech -16.5
Total: 163.5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The efficiency gap here tells you everything you need to know about this matchup. Texas Tech’s adjusted defensive efficiency ranks 25th nationally at 97.4, according to collegebasketballdata.com. That’s elite. Winthrop’s adjusted offensive efficiency sits at 117.8 (33rd), which is actually quite good – but here’s where it gets interesting. The Eagles have posted that number against significantly weaker competition, and their defensive rating of 109.7 (223rd) is going to be a massive problem against a Texas Tech offense that features two legitimate weapons.
When you look at raw defensive numbers, Winthrop is allowing opponents to shoot 46.1% from the field (301st nationally) and 35.8% from three (301st). That’s not just bad – it’s bottom-tier Division I defense. Texas Tech, meanwhile, is holding opponents to 43.2% from the field (168th) and an impressive 29.4% from three (59th). Do that math over 70 possessions, and you’re looking at a double-digit advantage just from shooting efficiency alone.
The pace matchup works perfectly for Texas Tech too. Both teams operate in similar tempo ranges – Winthrop at 69.5 possessions per game (147th) and Texas Tech at 70.3 (125th). This isn’t going to be a track meet that benefits the underdog, nor is it going to be a rock fight that keeps the score artificially close. It’s going to be a controlled game where the better team simply executes possession after possession.
Winthrop’s Situation
Let me give credit where it’s due – Winthrop can score. The Eagles are averaging 85.7 points per game (58th nationally) with an offensive rating of 118.5 (88th). They’ve got a legitimate low-post presence in Logan Duncomb, who’s putting up 14.7 points per game, and Kareem Rozier provides backcourt scoring at 14.6 per contest with solid playmaking at 4.0 assists per game.
The Eagles also take care of the basketball exceptionally well, turning it over just 9.7 times per game (24th) with a turnover ratio that ranks 3rd nationally. They’re also strong on the offensive glass, posting an offensive rebounding percentage of 35.4% (45th). Those are real strengths that could create some second-chance opportunities.
But here’s where reality sets in – Winthrop’s defense is atrocious. They’re allowing 79.6 points per game (306th) with a defensive rating of 110.6 (252nd). When you look at their recent schedule, they’ve padded stats against Clinton College, Bob Jones, and Toccoa Falls – games that shouldn’t even count in statistical analysis. Their two most recent losses came against North Dakota and Coastal Carolina, both by narrow margins, but those are nowhere near the caliber of opponent they’re facing Saturday.
Texas Tech’s Situation
The Red Raiders are coming off an impressive stretch that includes a road win at Duke and a dominant 24-point victory over LSU. JT Toppin is having a monster season, averaging 20.8 points and 11.5 rebounds per game. That rebounding number ranks 5th nationally, and he’s going to be a nightmare matchup for Winthrop’s frontcourt.
Christian Anderson gives Texas Tech elite playmaking from the guard spot, averaging 19.1 points and 7.0 assists per game. That assist number ranks 5th in the country, and he’s the engine that makes this offense run. When you’ve got a point guard who can both score and distribute at that level, combined with Toppin’s dominance on the boards, you’ve got a formula that should overwhelm a team like Winthrop.
The Red Raiders’ rebounding advantage is significant – they’re pulling down 40.3 boards per game (58th) with an offensive rebounding percentage of 36.4% (23rd nationally). Against a Winthrop team that ranks 142nd in rebounding, Texas Tech should control the glass on both ends. That’s extra possessions for the home team and fewer second chances for the visitors.
Texas Tech’s defense is where this game gets decided. They’re allowing just 70.0 points per game (111th) with that elite adjusted defensive efficiency ranking. The three-point defense is particularly stout, and that matters against a Winthrop team that shoots 35.5% from deep (112th).
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game lives and dies on Winthrop’s inability to stop anyone defensively. I keep coming back to those defensive efficiency numbers because they’re just too extreme to ignore. When you’re ranked 301st nationally in both opponent field goal percentage and opponent three-point percentage, you simply cannot hang with a Big 12 program that has multiple scoring options.
The rebounding battle is going to be decisive. Texas Tech ranks 23rd in offensive rebounding percentage while Winthrop ranks 45th – that’s a significant advantage for the home team. But on the defensive glass, Winthrop is going to struggle to keep Texas Tech from getting second-chance opportunities. When you factor in Toppin’s dominance on the boards against inferior competition, he should absolutely feast in this matchup.
Here’s the matchup that seals it for me: Christian Anderson’s ability to break down Winthrop’s perimeter defense. The Eagles don’t generate steals at a high rate (6.8 per game, 220th) and they don’t protect the rim effectively (3.2 blocks per game, 221st). That means Anderson should have clean driving lanes all afternoon, and when defenses collapse on him, he’s got the vision to find open shooters or hit Toppin on the roll.
The three-point shooting matchup heavily favors Texas Tech as well. The Red Raiders are shooting 36.5% from deep (78th) while defending the three at 29.4% (59th). Winthrop shoots 35.5% from three (112th) but allows 35.8% (301st). That’s a massive gap in three-point efficiency on both ends. Over 70 possessions, if Texas Tech hits even 8-10 threes while holding Winthrop to 5-6, that’s a 9-12 point swing right there.
My Play
The Pick: Texas Tech -16.5 (2 units)
I’m laying the points with the Red Raiders at home. The efficiency gap is real, the matchup advantages are clear, and Winthrop’s defensive deficiencies are too glaring to overlook. Texas Tech should control this game from the opening tip, dominate the glass, and pull away in the second half as Winthrop’s lack of depth becomes a factor.
I’m projecting a final score around Texas Tech 88, Winthrop 68. That gives us cushion on the 16.5-point spread and aligns with what the efficiency numbers suggest should happen over 70 possessions.
The main risk here is if Texas Tech gets complacent with a big lead and takes their foot off the gas in the final five minutes. But with this being a non-conference tune-up before Big 12 play intensifies, I expect Grant McCasland to keep his rotation fresh and maintain intensity throughout. Winthrop’s going to score some points – they’re too efficient offensively not to – but they have no answer for Toppin, no way to slow down Anderson, and no defensive identity to keep this competitive late.
I’ve considered all of that, and the talent gap is still too massive to ignore. Lay the points.
