The efficiency metrics for this neutral-site clash in Sioux Falls suggest the market is overvaluing offensive volume over defensive grit. While Wyoming brings a high-scoring attack to the Sanford Pentagon, the South Dakota State Jackrabbits boast the 32nd-ranked three-point defense in the nation. Bash breaks down the hidden factors—specifically Wyoming’s high foul rate and free-throw struggles—to determine if the point spread is too high for a projected defensive grinder.
The Setup: Wyoming at South Dakota State
Wyoming’s laying 4.5 points against South Dakota State at a neutral site in Sioux Falls, and here’s the thing – the market’s got this one dialed in tighter than you’d expect. The Cowboys come in hot at 8-2, averaging 86.8 points per game and shooting 48.5% from the field. South Dakota State sits at 7-5, grinding out 70.6 per game with rock-solid defense. This game lives and dies on whether the Jackrabbits can slow Wyoming’s tempo and make them work for everything in the halfcourt, or if the Cowboys impose their will and run them off the floor.
The efficiency numbers tell you this is closer than it looks. Wyoming’s got the offensive firepower at 86.8 PPG (36th nationally), but South Dakota State brings the 32nd-ranked three-point defense in the country at 28.0%. That’s not good – that’s elite. When you factor in matchup history and pace adjustments, this projects as a grinder, not a shootout. Let me walk you through why this spread makes perfect sense.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Game: Wyoming at South Dakota State
Date: December 15, 2025
Time: 8:00 PM ET
Location: Sanford Pentagon, Sioux Falls, SD (Neutral Site)
Spread: Wyoming -4.5
Total: 150.5
Records: Wyoming 8-2, South Dakota State 7-5
Why This Number Makes Sense
The spread sits at Wyoming -4.5, and when you dig into the matchup data, you see exactly why oddsmakers landed here. Wyoming scores 86.8 per game overall, but against South Dakota State’s defensive caliber, that number projects closer to 73-74 points. The Jackrabbits allow 71.7 PPG (248th defensively), which puts Wyoming in a solid scoring position but nothing close to their season average.
Here’s what matters: South Dakota State ranks 32nd nationally in three-point defense, holding opponents to just 28.0% from beyond the arc. That’s not some mid-major fluff stat – that’s legitimately elite perimeter defense. Wyoming shoots 36.0% from three overall (82nd nationally), but against this level of three-point defense, expect that number to drop to the low 30s. When the Jackrabbits take away the deep ball, Wyoming has to win in the paint and at the free throw line.
The rebounding battle tilts Wyoming’s way at 40.2 boards per game (34th) versus South Dakota State’s 37.1 (108th), but it’s not the massive advantage it appears. SDSU ranks 8th in defensive rebounding percentage, limiting second chances. Wyoming’s offensive rebounding at 34.3% (61st) is solid, but the Jackrabbits’ 78.4% defensive rebounding rate means those extra possessions won’t come easy.
Wyoming’s Situation
The Cowboys are rolling winners of their last three, including a 106-79 demolition of South Dakota on Tuesday where they shot 62.5% from the field. That’s the kind of performance that gets bettors fired up, but here’s the reality check – South Dakota is not South Dakota State. The Coyotes rank 355th in opponent free throw attempts and gave up 81% shooting from the stripe. The Jackrabbits are a completely different animal defensively.
Leland Walker leads Wyoming at 14.1 points per game, but this is a balanced attack with Nasir Meyer (12.3 PPG) and Khaden Bennett (10.4 PPG) providing scoring punch. Meyer went nuclear for 26 against South Dakota, but he’s shooting 41.7% from three on the season – good, not great. Against South Dakota State’s elite perimeter defense, he’ll need to create off the dribble and get to the rim.
Wyoming’s biggest weakness is free throw shooting at 69.0% (258th nationally). In a tight game on a neutral floor, that’s a legitimate concern. They also foul at an absurd rate – 28.3% of opponent plays (363rd nationally). Against a South Dakota State team that gets to the line 19.8 times per game, Wyoming’s going to put them on the stripe, and the Jackrabbits shoot a respectable 71.3%.
South Dakota State’s Situation
The Jackrabbits come in at 7-5 with wins over Ball State and Northern Arizona, plus a 94-62 destruction of Dakota Wesleyan. Their offensive profile is methodical – 70.6 PPG (251st) with 43.5% shooting (209th). Joe Sayler (11.8 PPG), Jaden Jackson (11.9 PPG), and Damon Wilkinson (11.8 PPG, 6.6 RPG) provide balanced scoring, but nobody’s blowing up for 25-point nights.
What South Dakota State does exceptionally well is defend the three-point line. That 28.0% opponent mark (32nd nationally) is their calling card. They also rank 39th in opponent defensive rebounding, limiting second-chance points. When teams can’t hit threes or get extra possessions, they’re forced to execute in the halfcourt, and that’s where the Jackrabbits grind you down.
The problem for SDSU is their offensive limitations. They shoot 30.9% from three (272nd) and score just 70.6 per game. Against Wyoming’s 41.2% opponent field goal percentage (62nd defensively), they’re looking at a slugfest in the 70-72 point range. Their offensive rebounding rate of 29.4% (167th) is middle of the pack, so they’re not generating many second chances against Wyoming’s size.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
The matchup data projects Wyoming at 73.6 points and South Dakota State at 71.7 points based on how these teams perform against similar competition. That’s a 2-point game, which makes the 4.5-point spread feel about right when you factor in Wyoming’s slightly better offensive profile and neutral court positioning.
South Dakota State’s elite three-point defense is the X-factor. Wyoming averages 8.9 threes per game (94th), but that number drops significantly against top-50 perimeter defenses. When the Cowboys can’t get clean looks from deep, they have to attack the rim, and that means more free throw attempts – which is problematic given their 69.0% conversion rate.
The pace battle favors Wyoming slightly. The Cowboys want to push tempo and get out in transition where South Dakota State’s halfcourt defense can’t get set. But the Jackrabbits are disciplined – they rank 203rd in assists per game because they work the shot clock and limit transition opportunities. Expect possessions in the high 60s, which favors the defensive-minded Jackrabbits.
Wyoming’s fouling is going to be an issue. They commit fouls on 28.3% of opponent plays (363rd nationally), and South Dakota State shoots 71.3% from the line. In a projected 2-3 point game, those free throws add up. If the Jackrabbits can get to the stripe 20+ times, they’re covering that 4.5-point spread.
My Play
The Pick: South Dakota State +4.5 (3 units)
I’m taking the points with the Jackrabbits. The matchup data projects a 2-point game, which gives us 2.5 points of cushion on a 4.5-point spread. Wyoming’s a good team, but they’re not built to dominate elite three-point defenses, and South Dakota State ranks 32nd in the country defending the arc. When you take away Wyoming’s deep ball, they become a different team – more methodical, more reliant on free throws they don’t shoot well.
The neutral court eliminates any home advantage, and these teams played to a 78-65 final last year with Wyoming covering as a much larger favorite. This year’s South Dakota State team is better defensively, and Wyoming’s weaknesses (free throw shooting, excessive fouling) play directly into SDSU’s strengths.
I’m projecting Wyoming 74, South Dakota State 71. That’s a 3-point Cowboys win, well within our 4.5-point cushion. The main risk is Wyoming getting hot from three early and stretching the lead, but their 36.0% three-point shooting against a 28.0% three-point defense suggests that’s unlikely. South Dakota State’s going to make Wyoming grind for 35 seconds every possession, and in a rock fight, 4.5 points is gold.
This is a disciplined, defensive-minded team getting nearly a bucket and a half on a neutral floor against an offensively talented but fundamentally flawed opponent. Hammer the Jackrabbits and watch them muck this game up into the low 70s where they can compete possession-by-possession. South Dakota State keeps it close and covers.
