St. John’s is laying a heavy 14.5 points at home against a Xavier team that has struggled away from Cincinnati all season. Bash breaks down the efficiency gap and delivers his best bet for this Monday night Big East clash on FS1.
The Setup: Xavier at St. John’s
St. John’s is laying 14.5 points at home against Xavier, and honestly? The market’s not messing around here. The Red Storm are riding a five-game winning streak that includes a road victory at Xavier just two weeks ago, and when you dig into the collegebasketballdata.com efficiency numbers, this spread tells a story about two teams moving in completely opposite directions. St. John’s sits at 18.9 adjusted net efficiency (#22 nationally) while Xavier limps in at just 5.1 (#116). That’s a 13.8-point gap in pure efficiency—and we’re getting asked to lay 14.5. The Musketeers have lost four of their last five, including an absolute boat-racing at UConn (60-92), and now they’re walking into Carnesecca Arena against a Red Storm squad that just took down that same UConn team. The thesis here is simple: Xavier doesn’t have the defensive chops or the offensive firepower to hang with St. John’s current form, and this number—as big as it looks—might actually be light.
Game Info & Betting Lines
Matchup: Xavier @ St. John’s
Date: February 9, 2026
Time: 6:30 PM ET
Venue: Carnesecca Arena, Queens, NY
Point Spread: St. John’s -14.5
Over/Under: 162.5
Moneyline: St. John’s -1600, Xavier +800
Why This Number Makes Sense (or Doesn’t)
Let’s break down why the market landed on 14.5. St. John’s owns a 116.5 adjusted offensive efficiency (#49) paired with a 97.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (#27)—that defensive number is elite territory. Xavier counters with 110.3 adjusted offensive efficiency (#128) and 105.2 adjusted defensive efficiency (#119). The Red Storm hold nearly an 8-point advantage on the defensive side of the efficiency ledger, which is massive in college basketball.
The pace factor matters here too. St. John’s plays at 74.4 possessions per game (#21 nationally), while Xavier sits at 71.6 (#85). That’s roughly three extra possessions for the home team, and when you’re the significantly more efficient squad getting more possessions, you’re going to create separation. The raw scoring numbers back this up: St. John’s averages 88.6 points per game (#28) compared to Xavier’s 78.7 (#157). That’s a 10-point gap before we even factor in the matchup dynamics.
The total at 162.5 makes sense given the pace and offensive capabilities. These teams combined for 171 points two weeks ago when St. John’s won 88-83 in Cincinnati. With St. John’s pushing tempo at home and Xavier’s defense ranking 293rd in opponent field goal percentage, there’s room for the Red Storm to get into the 90s again. The market’s essentially pricing in an 85-78 type game, which feels conservative given what we’ve seen.
Xavier Breakdown: The Analytical Edge
What does Xavier do well? They take care of the basketball. The Musketeers rank 10th nationally in turnovers per game at just 9.1, with a turnover ratio of 0.1 that ranks 3rd in the country. That ball security, combined with 18.5 assists per game (#30), shows an offense that values possessions and moves the ball effectively when they’re not turning it over.
The three-point shooting offers some hope—36.7% from deep (#73) is respectable, and they’ll need to lean on that perimeter game with Tre Carroll leading the way at 17.3 points per game. Filip Borovicanin provides an interesting wrinkle as a facilitating big man (3.6 assists per game, #240 nationally) who can create from the elbow.
But here’s the problem: Xavier can’t shoot inside the arc (42.5% overall FG%, #299) and they can’t stop anybody (45.9% opponent FG%, #293). That defensive number is brutal, especially against a St. John’s team that shoots 47.7% from the field (#86) and dominates the offensive glass at 36.8% (#18). The Musketeers’ 102.0 defensive rating (#123) isn’t terrible in a vacuum, but it’s nowhere near good enough to slow down what St. John’s does offensively.
St. John’s Breakdown: The Counterpoint
The Red Storm are humming right now, and the efficiency numbers explain why. That 97.6 adjusted defensive efficiency (#27) is built on fundamentals: 41.1% opponent field goal percentage (#88), 8.8 steals per game (#64), and 5.1 blocks per game (#26). They’re long, active, and disruptive on that end.
Offensively, St. John’s plays with balance and aggression. Zuby Ejiofor (15.5 PPG) and Bryce Hopkins (15.1 PPG) provide a formidable frontcourt duo, while the team crashes the offensive glass relentlessly—that 36.8% offensive rebounding rate (#18) creates second-chance opportunities that Xavier simply can’t match (Xavier ranks 224th in offensive rebounding percentage at 30.1%).
The Red Storm’s 118.6 offensive rating (#87) is powered by getting to the rim (336 points in the paint) and converting in transition (173 fast break points). They shoot 53.6% effective field goal percentage (#124) and post a 58.3% true shooting percentage (#102), which means they’re getting quality looks and converting efficiently. Against Xavier’s porous defense, those numbers should only improve.
The Matchup: Where This Gets Decided
This game comes down to two critical battlegrounds: the glass and the paint. St. John’s averages 39.8 rebounds per game (#73) compared to Xavier’s 36.2 (#220), but that offensive rebounding gap is where the Musketeers get buried. When St. John’s generates extra possessions through offensive boards against a Xavier team that already struggles defensively, the math gets ugly fast.
The interior battle favors St. John’s dramatically. The Red Storm have scored 336 points in the paint compared to Xavier’s 272, and they’re doing it against better competition in Big East play. Xavier’s inability to defend inside the arc (45.9% opponent FG%) means Ejiofor, Hopkins, and Dillon Mitchell (6.5 rebounds per game, #240) should feast in the post.
Xavier’s best path to covering involves getting hot from three and keeping the game in the half-court where their ball security matters. But St. John’s plays at a faster pace and forces turnovers (8.8 steals per game). Even though Xavier only turns it over 9.1 times per game, the Red Storm’s length and pressure could disrupt that rhythm. When St. John’s gets out in transition—where they’ve scored 173 fast break points—Xavier’s defense has shown zero ability to get back and set up.
The head-to-head history is fresh and relevant: St. John’s just won 88-83 at Xavier on January 24th. That was on Xavier’s home floor, and the Musketeers still couldn’t get stops when they needed them down the stretch. Now they’re walking into Carnesecca Arena, where the Red Storm are comfortable and confident.
Bash’s Best Bet
The Play: St. John’s -14.5
I’m laying the points with the Red Storm, and I’m doing it with confidence. Xavier is reeling—four losses in five games, including that 32-point beatdown at UConn—and they don’t have the defensive personnel to slow down what St. John’s does. The efficiency gap is real, the matchup advantages are clear, and the Red Storm just proved they can beat Xavier comfortably two weeks ago on the road.
St. John’s wins this game by 18-22 points. The offensive rebounding creates extra possessions, the pace favors the home team, and Xavier’s defense simply isn’t built to contain this kind of balanced, aggressive attack. Give me the Red Storm to cover, and I’ll sprinkle a little on the over 162.5 too. This total feels low given St. John’s ability to score and Xavier’s inability to defend.
