Baylor Bears (6-2 SU, 2-6 ATS) vs. Oklahoma Sooners (7-2 SU, 3-6 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time:Saturday, November 12, 2016 12:00 PM EDT
Where: Gaylord Oklahoma Memorial Stadium - Norman, OK
TV: ESPN Sports Network
by KEITH, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BU +15.5/OU -15.5
Over/Under Total: 80
The Oklahoma Sooners (7-2) host the Baylor Bears (6-2) in a pivotal Big 12 conference clash at Gaylord Oklahoma Memorial Stadium in Norman, Oklahoma on Saturday, November 12th. The game will be broadcasted within the ESPN umbrella of coverage networks for selected audiences with a 12:00 PM ET kickoff. Both outfits have won three of the last six meetings in this highly explosive and continuously evolving rivalry.
Despite losing their last two, Baylor is no longer the runt of the Big 12 litter. Conversely, Oklahoma does not appear to be the big kid in the Big 12 yard either anymore. Nevertheless, in spite of their recent performances the markets have assessed that Baylor may be sluggish in this fixture even if they are in primed position to be a troublemaker for the Sooners. Despite Oklahoma giving away over two touchdowns, the underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests between both parties. Furthermore, it is also worth highlighting that the road team has emerged victorious in the last two matches.
Oklahoma comes to the contest off a 34-24 victory against Iowa State in Ames, a game where Oklahoma had to swat away the Cyclones who were a pest to say the least. Oklahomas defense allowed the Cyclones to make it a four quarter game and the fact that Oklahoma has a significant propensity for being overvalued as the pre-season Big 12 favorite perhaps lured takers in for the sixth let-down against the spread for the Crimson and Cream. Despite Oklahoma failing to cover for the sixth time this season, they will still likely be spotting inflated points be that they are inching nearer to yet another Big 12 title.
The Bears have now dropped their last two Big 12 games and their most recent defeat was all the more disparaging as the Bears were absolutely smoked by TCU in Fort Worth 62-22. The Baylor program as a whole has looked in shambles in the previous two weeks and some suspect the train may be beginning to go off the tracks. It is hard to argue that perspective but nevertheless this is an offense that is extremely potent and the fact they are given what should be considered an insane amount of points is something worth looking in to.
The variables may have been shaking up quite a bit more if Baylor hadnt lost to Texas and perhaps maybe even won against TCU to boot. One thing is for sure, if Baylor had won either of their two losses they wouldnt be spotted the generous offering we see available here. Baylor has consistently boasted one of the most prolific and consistent offenses in America in the past five years. Oklahoma had trouble putting away Iowa State, imagine what Baylor can do if the Sooners leave the door open for them. This here is a classic demonstration of an overreaction on one team against another team being laid by virtue of overreaction due to their attrition. Baylor with points is tempting, throwing in over two scores against a suspect defense and its a must-play. Additionally, the amount of points that may be scored in this contest is too difficult to gauge. The Sooners and the Bears can easily combine for over 100 points and 1,000 yards of offense as the defense is neither teams strong point. If a shootout is on the horizon (which may in fact be the case) then the academic move for certain is to take Baylor with the points as anything over 7 points in a shootout is considered the move.
Casting aside traditional betting acumen and strategy, Oklahoma is a great target to lay because their name alone carries a hidden price. The Sooners may be set-up right now for their third loss on the season as Iowa State and Kansas are certainly far weaker opposition compared to the test that is coming to Norman, this Saturday. Oklahoma does not own a true quality win and as a result, they are a great lay option this week against a quality opponent in Baylor.
KEITHs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: BAYLOR +15.5
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