Baylor Bears (9-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) vs. TCU Horned Frogs (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date/Time: Friday, November 27, 7:30pm />
Where: Amon G Carter Stadium Waco, TX
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BAY +1.5 / TCU -1.5
Over/Under Total: OFF
If you are one of those weirdos that like to shop on Black Friday, then just make sure you are back home by 7:30pm to tune into ESPN and check out of the most anticipated games of 2015. Of course, when the season started, and even up until three or four weeks ago, we all thought this game would determine one of the college football playoff teams. Well, at 9-2 overall, TCU has lost any shot to make it. Baylor comes in ranked 10th and are 9-1, so they still have an outside shot, even though it is still very unlikely that they get enough respect and help to be one of the final four. Last season, this game was one of the craziest games in all of college football. Baylor came from way back to win on a late field goal 61-58. I could see the score of this game being very much the same. High scoring and not over til the clock reaches 0:00.
Baylor comes in as a 1.5 point road favorite over TCU. Against the spread this season, Baylor is 5-4 while TCU is 5-6. Since 2010, TCU has covered the spread in four of the five meetings. However, in those five meetings that TCU covered, Baylor actually won three of those games. A Baylor win this time, with the spread being so tight, could mean the Bears both cover and win. In Vegas, 67% of the bettors on the Bears. The total points have yet to be posted and I could easily the total points being set at about 78-81 points. Anything posted under 85, I would bet the over easily. 85+ could be interesting.
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After losing to Oklahoma, I truly thought Baylor was done. I had them losing to Oklahoma State this past weekend and pretty much ended any major bowl talk as well as a playoff appearance for the Bears. I do not think they will crack the top four, especially with their conference not having a title game, but I could see Baylor finishing 11-1 and making one of the major bowls. Baylor is still ranked 1st in the nation in scoring at 54 points per game and their defense is also in the top 75 of the FBS which may not seem impressive, but when you are getting a minimum of 35 a game, just some defense is good enough. With that said though, this weekend, the Bears will need to play better on that side of the ball than normal. TCU is a dangerous offense and that is with or without Trevone Boykinthe guys can score.
TCU come into the season primed and set up for a final four run. All they had to do was take care of business and they were in. Yeah, they had a very little if not any margin of error knowing that just one loss could end any hopes of a playoff appearance. Now, with two losses, TCU can kiss the playoffs goodbye, but they can certainly spoil any dreams that Baylor has of a major bowl berth and trust me, TCU wants that, bad. I have yet to hear the status of TCU quarterback, Trevone Boykin, but I am assuming he will play. He was questionable and sat against Oklahoma, but I think in this one, he will suit up, however, that is not confirmed. TCU will have their fans in their corner and it will be a very intense atmosphere in Waco. If TCU can jump out early and get Baylor on the ropes, it could be a fun night, but if Baylor jumps on TCU, the Frogs may fold early. Of course, the key for TCU is just like it is for Baylorscore and play defense. Sounds pretty clich, but it is true. Both offenses are ranked in the top six scoring but both defenses are out of the top 50 in FBS. If either team can get some stops or maybe some timely turnovers, it could change the outcome in a major way.
This will be a fun game to watch and I think we will see some big plays, lots of points, and a game that comes down to the wire. Deep down I think TCU winsI dont know why but I do. But for some reason, I am going with the public on this one. I try to usually not go for the public heavy chalk pick but I truly think Baylor comes in and wins this one. It will be close, but I like Baylor 43-38.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: TAKE THE BAYLOR BEARS -1.5 POINTS!
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