Boise State Broncos (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) vs. Utah State Aggies (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS)
NCAA Week 7
Date/Time: Friday, October 16th, 9:00pm
Where: Romney Stadium Logan, UT
by Bob, NFL Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BSU -10 / UTU +10
Over/Under Total: 47
Friday night we have a Mountain West Conference showdown when the Boise State Broncos travel into Logan, Utah to take on the Utah State Aggies. Boise State enters this game at 5-1 overall while Utah State is 3-2. Both teams sit at 2-0 in the conference however, and a win by either team will put them in the drivers seat to take home the Mountain West title. Since 2010, these teams have faced off three times and each time Boise State won outright and two of those three games they also covered the spread. Actually, dating back to 2000, Boise State has won ten straight over the Aggies and to be honest, it is never really close. Boise always seems to jump on them early and put it away quick. Can this season be different?
The line opens with Boise State as a ten point road favorite and the total points are set at 47 points combined. The ten point spread is about right, but the total points are set a tad lower than in years past. So far, 71% of the action is on Boise to get the road cover while 63% like the game to go over the 47 total points. Against the spread this season, Boise State is 4-2 while Utah State is 3-2. In this series, not only has Boise State won the last ten games heads up, but they have covered 8 of those 10and the other two games, a push occurred. It looks like pure domination to me. Can Utah States home crowd get behind them and lead them to their first win over Boise State in the 2000s?
Boise State for the better part of the last decade has been one of those mid major teams that always consider themselves a contender for a national title. They have defeated Oklahoma and Georgia in years past that helps them make a case for themselves. However, this Boise State is not like the ones in years past. They are blowing people out, but they just are not considered a legit contender for the football playoff, and now that they lost a game to BYU, they are pretty much eliminated. After starting QB, Ryan Finley went down, freshman, Brett Rypien took over the reigns. Since then, wow, the Broncos offense has been clicking. Rypien has thrown for over 1,000 yards and seven touchdowns alreadyand just one pick. Boise State has scored an average of 40.7 points per game and are only allowing right at 12 a game to be scored against them. That is domination. The key to this game is just that for Boise State. Rypien needs to not make any freshman mistakes, which he has not really done yet, but he needs to remain consistent. Also, if the Broncos defense holds up like they have all year, this game could be a blowout, real quick. If they allow Utah State to force turnovers and get in short field situations, you may see a closer game than it should be.
Utah State is 3-2 but their schedule has not been bad. They have wins over Fresno State, Colorado State, and Southern Utah. The two losses were to Washington, who nearly beat Boise State themselves, and a Utah team that is positioning themselves as one of the teams that could potentially crack the college football playoff. Utah State is not as explosive as Boise is on offense, but they have been able to put up nearly 27 points a game which is not completely terrible. The Utah State passing game this season has not been very dangerous. Their QBs, Chuckie Keeton and Kent Myers have combined for less than 1,000 through five games. The run game however has been pretty successful. It has been a run game by committee but is has been effective. The leading rusher through week five is Devante Mays. He has carried the ball 35 times for 259 yards, one of those being a 41 yard touchdown run. The workhorse of the group however is LaJuan Hunt. Hunt has touched the ball 75 times, but has less yards than Mays. Now, to the Utah State defense. They are ranked 30th in the nation, allowing just under 20 points a game. They have not played a team yet that is as explosive as Boise State, but defense is key. Utah State needs stops and when they do not get stops, they need to force Boise State to kick field goals, not reach the endzone. If Utah State can keep this game in the mid 20s, I think they cover the ten. If Boise takes off and scores 35-40 points, I am not so sure Utah State has the fire power to keep up.
Chalk. I hate hate hate taking my picks from straight chalk, but come onBoise State has covered EVERY spread against Utah State in the last ten meetings, with the exception of two pushes. This is just one of those games where you say, I will ride Boise State to cover until Utah State proves me wrong. I like Boise State to win this game over the Aggies something like 33-17.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: PICK BOISE STATE -10
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