Boise State Broncos (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) vs. Virginia Cavaliers (1-2 SU, 1-1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 4
Date/Time: Friday, September 25, 8:00pm
Where: Scott Stadium Charlottesville, VA
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BSU -2.5/UVA +2.5
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Friday night on ESPN we will see the Boise State Broncos travel across the to east coast to face off with the Virginia Cavaliers. Boise State comes in at 2-1 overall while Virginia sits at 1-2. The forecast calls for rain so we will see if that plays into how the teams prepare for each other. Both teams have played a very different schedule. Virginias two losses were to teams who at the time were ranked in the top 15. Notre Dame had to pull out a miracle to win, while UCLA played pretty well and took down the Cavs by a score of 34-16 in Pasadena. Boise State started the season by winning a tight one against Washington only to lose in week two to BYU 35-24. This past weekend was a cake walk in a 52-0 win over Idaho State. This game will be very interesting. There are a lot of questions as to how they will match up.
The point spread as we speak has Boise State favored by 2.5 points on the road while the over under is set at 50 combined points. Both teams are pretty even as far as their success covering the spread so far this year. The public action is heavy on Boise State with 68% of the action on them minus the points. 57% of the action is on the over 50 for the total points. Time to break this down.
Boise State is not the same team we remember from the last ten years. This is not the same type team that beat Oklahoma or Georgia, but they are still pretty good. At 2-1, Boise State is barely outside the top 25 and with a win at Virginia and a few losses by some ranked teams, the Broncos could find themselves right back in the top 25. The biggest question mark right now is the quarterback position. Boise States starting QB, Ryan Finley is out at least 8 weeks with a broken bone in his ankle, and now freshman Brett Rypien, will take over the reigns and lead the Broncos into Virginia. Brett Rypien is the son of the one time Super Bowl MVP, Mark Rypien, that led the Washington Redskins to a title over the Buffalo Bills in the early 1990s. This kid has a great pedigree and from what I read, he has a lot of hype around him. So far this season, he has thrown for 126 yards and 8 of 9 passing. This kid can play, but is he ready to take the show on the road as a starter? In order to go into Charlottesville and get a road win and cover, the defense will need to keep doing what it has for the first three weeks. Yeah, they had trouble with BYU, but against Washington and Idaho State, they were pretty sound. If they can keep the Cavaliers in the upper teens to low 20s, I like the Broncos chances of covering.
It is very hard to gauge Virginia as a football team right now. They played well but lost to two of the nations top teams, while barely escaping William and Mary 35-29. I have no idea what this team is capable of right now. The offense is averaging 26 points a game and the defense is allowing 32.3 points given up per contest. This is not a good match-up for Virginia and if they have any desire to win this game, the defense must play better. The Cavs defenders need to find a way to make the freshmen QB from Boise State make some mistakes and not get in a rhythm. If he is allowed to pass without pressure, Boise could score in the 40seasily.
Friday night NCAA home dogs are usually the play for me, usually. The public is pounding Boise State, Virginia is the underdog at home, its a prime time late week gamethat tells me to lay the cash on Virginia +2.5. But, for some reason, I just cannot do it. I want so bad to pull the trigger on the underdog, but I truly believe that Boise State comes in and gets a fairly easy win. I am not saying I sense a blowout, but I could see the Broncos winning this game 27-17 or so. Ugh! Yeah, I am sticking with the road fave.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take Boise State -2.5 on the road!
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