Boise State at Utah State Free Point Spread Pick

Boise State Broncos (7-4 SU, 6-3-2 ATS) vs. Utah State Aggies (6-5 SU, 9-2 ATS)

NCAA Football Week 14

Date/Time: Friday, November 28, 2025 at 4PM EST

Where: Maverik Stadium, Logan, Utah

TV: CBS

Betting Odds

Point Spread: BSU -3.5/USU +3.5 (Bovada)

Money Line: BSU -170, USU +145

Over/Under Total: 55

The Boise State Broncos come to Logan for a big Mountain West showdown with the Utah State Aggies on Friday. The Broncos were able to recover on Saturday, ending a costly two-game losing streak to post a 49-21 win over Colorado State. They really need to keep it going this week against a tough home Utah State Aggies squad. On Saturday, the Aggies went into Fresno and scored a nice 28-17 win to poke their noses above .500 at 6-5. Who can come up with the big performance in each of these teams’ final opportunity to make a regular-season impression?

Exploring the Stakes

For Utah State, it’s a bit simpler, as they’ve had a good season under veteran first-year head coach Bronco Mendenhall. A win here would enhance their standing for a more premier bowl spot and also give them some extra wind in their sails as they build toward something better next season. For Boise State, they are still in the midst of a conference hunt. They had the upper hand at one point until consecutive losses to Fresno State and San Diego State sent them reeling. Still, with the win on Saturday over the Rams, the Broncos still have a shot. Obviously, they’d need to win this game. If conference-leading San Diego State beats New Mexico, Boise is in on the strength of holding the tiebreaker over UNLV. But if New Mexico wins and you end up with a large group of teams with a conference record of 6-2, it’s going to be quite a mess that would be really cumbersome to break down here. Suffice to say, Boise should be gunning hard for the win.

Is Some Hope Restored with Boise?

For whatever snafus and poor twists of fortune may have befallen Boise during the two-game slide that led to their win over Colorado State, there is no denying that it was a low-point. Having your starting QB get hurt with no real blue-chippers in the wings is bad, but to score 7 points two games in a row and one against a team Utah State just beat on the road is a bad look for the Broncos. And beating a 2-win Rams team at home doesn’t make it go away. Still, getting a good game from QB Max Cutforth was a positive development as they head down the final stretch. We’ll continue to monitor the health of Maddux Madsen, who’s been hurt since the loss to Fresno State. They got some well-needed production with their run game with Sire Gaines and Dylan Riley, and it was good to see Letrell Caples making some nice catches.

Still, A Boise defense that has not gotten better over the course of the season is still a major hurdle to big-time success. Last week, Colorado State struggled running the ball, but was quite effective aerially. The Boise defense can make some big plays, even though they’re leaky, and that’s what really helped them last week. It has bailed them out a few times before, and it had been missing the last few weeks, so a return to that was a good sign. They’re going to need it against a Utah State offense that is pretty well-balanced and able to do aerial damage with experienced quarterback Bryson Barnes.

Can the Aggies Hang in There?

They get this one at home, which isn’t the easiest place for visiting opponents to play. At the very least, one could expect the Aggies to do better than last season, when the Broncos scored 62 points with a huge day from Ashton Jeanty. It’s still a conference rivalry that hasn’t been easy on Utah State. They beat the Broncos in 2015, and before that, you’d have to go back to 1997. Still, the state of the Broncos, combined with the Aggies having their best team in years under Mendenhall, gives their case some teeth.

With only four picks against 18 TDs on the season, Barnes has been efficient and takes care of the ball, a trait that will come in handy against an opportunistic Boise defense. With 8 TDs on the ground with 644 yards, Barnes is a dual-threat, aided in the backfield by good backs Miles Davis and Javen Jacobs. One of the better one-two punches at wide receiver in the conference, with Braden Pegan and Brady Boyd, gives this offense some nice variety.

Food for Thought

A Utah State backer in this spot would no doubt be emboldened by the way the Broncos looked in their last few games against relevant MWC teams, how they get this at home, and how they beat a team on the road last week that beat Boise in the Bulldogs. I’m not so sure that it’s not premature to shovel dirt on Spencer Danielson’s squad, and I sense the former Toreros standout will have this group ready to roll, with a win giving them an inside track for a slot in the conference championship. Not that institutional superiority or having more to play for are reliable guiding lights, but I’m not sure this is the week where we get any kind of a clunker from Boise State.

Lay the Short Number on the Road Favorite

In a way, it’s not the greatest value from an ATS standpoint, and on paper, you could almost make this somewhat of a toss-up. After all the improvements we’ve seen the Aggies make across the board, along with all of their standout individual performances this season, it seems like an odd time for them to stall out. I just think that last week gave the Broncos some wind in their sails, and with the conference title game still a strong possibility, I suspect a good showing, as they win and get the cover in Logan.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the Boise State Broncos minus 3.5 points.

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