Expert College Football Total Picks of the Week

This Week’s College Football Total Bets

Each week during the college football season, we target the sharpest totals on the board—those over/unders where the numbers tell a different story than the public perception. We’re not just looking for a high or low score; we’re hunting for value where the market might be off. Our picks are available throughout the week, with any final updates or new plays posted by Friday.

Every total pick comes with a straightforward breakdown, highlighting the key factors driving the play. This isn’t about guessing—it’s about data-driven analysis that cuts through the noise. Trust the numbers, trust the process, and let the results speak for themselves. Lastly (and very beneficial), learn how to bet on over/under plays at -105 odds instead of the -110 your bookie is sapping you with! Be smart! Save money by learning about reduced juice college football betting!

Week 2 Picks

College Football: Georgia Southern at Nevada

Date: Saturday, September 7, 2024
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Mackay Stadium, Reno, NV
Odds: Georgia Southern -1, Total: 59

High-Scoring Affair on the Horizon

The total for Georgia Southern at Nevada is set at 59 points, but the numbers suggest we could be in for a shootout. Here’s why the OVER looks appealing:

1. Georgia Southern’s Explosive Offensive Potential

In their season opener, Georgia Southern put up an impressive 45 points. They weren’t just scoring; they did it efficiently, generating 0.506 points per play. This high-octane offense could push the total up significantly on its own.

2. Defensive Concerns on Both Sides

Georgia Southern’s defense struggled mightily in their opener, allowing 56 points and a staggering 9.9 yards per play. While Nevada’s defense has been more respectable, giving up an average of 27.5 points in their two games, it’s still not lockdown territory. These defensive issues could contribute to a higher-scoring game.

3. Tempo and Play Volume

In their first game, Georgia Southern ran 89 plays, well above average. More plays mean more scoring opportunities. Even with Nevada’s more modest 63.5 plays per game, the combined volume suggests plenty of chances to push this total OVER.

4. Third Down Efficiency

Both teams have shown prowess in extending drives. Georgia Southern converted 63.16% of third downs in their opener, while Nevada is hitting 50% through two games. Sustained drives often lead to points, supporting the OVER.

5. Red Zone Proficiency

Both teams boast a perfect 100% red zone scoring percentage so far this season. When these offenses get close, they’re finishing drives. This efficiency in the red zone is crucial for hitting the OVER.

While Nevada’s offense hasn’t been as prolific, scoring an average of 26 points in their two games, they’re facing a Georgia Southern defense that showed significant vulnerabilities in its opener. The Eagles’ high-scoring potential, combined with their defensive issues, create a recipe for a high-scoring affair.

The 59-point total isn’t low, but given these offensive trends and defensive questions, we could easily see this game sailing OVER. Don’t be surprised if we’re looking at a final score in the 60s or even 70s.

Record: 0-1
Week 1: Uconn/Maryland Under 45 (Lost 50 -7)