CFB Underdog of the Week Picks

This Week’s College Football Underdog Bets

Throughout the college football season, we identify the top underdog against the spread. This isn’t about chasing popular picks—it’s about uncovering those matchups where the odds-makers might be off. We’ll have our picks available throughout the week, with the final updates or any additional plays posted by Friday.

Every pick is backed by a clear and concise analysis, focusing on the key factors that give this underdog the edge. No guesswork, just sharp insights rooted in data. Stick to the facts, avoid the noise, and trust the rationale behind each selection.

Week 2 Picks

College Football: Northern Illinois at Notre Dame
Date: Saturday, September 7, 2024
Location: Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend, IN
Odds: Notre Dame -28, NIU +28

NIU Huskies: Experience and Resilience Could Lead to a Cover

While Notre Dame is heavily favored, there’s a strong case for NIU to keep this game within the 28-point spread. Here’s why the Huskies might cover:

1. NIU’s Returning Experience

The Huskies bring back eight starters on both offense and defense. This continuity could be crucial early in the season when teams are still finding their rhythm. Their familiarity with the system may help them execute more efficiently against a Notre Dame team still gelling.

2. Notre Dame’s O-Line in Progress

While Notre Dame’s offensive line looked solid in their season opener, it’s still a work in progress due to pre-season injuries. This potential vulnerability could allow NIU’s experienced defense to create some disruption and keep the game closer than expected.

3. NIU’s 2023 Resilience

NIU proved they could hang tough in most games last season. Despite several losses, only one was by more than 8 points. This demonstrates their ability to stay competitive, even against stronger opponents – a key factor when considering a 28-point spread.

4. Early Season Unpredictability

With both teams having played only one game this season, there’s limited current data to go on. This uncertainty can often lead to closer games than expected, especially with large spreads.

5. NIU’s Potential for Ball Control

In their season opener, NIU showed a commitment to the run game. If they can establish this against Notre Dame, it could help control the tempo, shorten the game, and limit the Irish’s possessions – all crucial for covering a large spread.

While Notre Dame undoubtedly has the talent advantage, 28 points is a significant spread to cover, especially this early in the season. NIU’s returning experience, coupled with their history of keeping games close and Notre Dame’s still-gelling offensive line, gives them a solid shot at staying within four touchdowns. Don’t be surprised if the Huskies make this game more competitive than the oddsmakers anticipate.

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