Boston College Eagles (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) vs. No. 1 Florida State Seminoles (10-0 SU, 3-7 ATS)
College Football Week 13
Date and Time: Saturday November 22nd, 2014. 3:30PM EST
Where: Doak Campbell Stadium Tallahassee, F.L.
TV: ABC
by Jay, Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: BC +20/FSU -20
Over/Under Total: TBA
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Another week in the books and yet another come from behind victory by the Florida State Seminoles. Last week the Seminoles overcame a 23-7 deficit to beat in-state rival Miami in a 30-26 classic to remain unbeaten. It was the 3rd time this season the Seminoles overcame a deficit of at least 15 points and the win pushed their winning streak to 25 games which is the longest in school history. Additionally thanks to Mississippi States loss, Florida State is now the only unbeaten team remaining in college football and their bid for a 2nd straight National Championship is getting better by the week. The Seminoles look to keep their momentum going this Saturday as big favorites when they host Boston College inside Doak Campbell Stadium.
No other team in college football has developed more critics and hate this season than Florida State. The off the field issues combined with numerous close calls on the field has developed even more hate for the new number 1 team in the land. Yet despite having the villain role, the Seminoles have continued to overcome adversity on a near weekly basis and have found ways to win football games. For bettors, the Seminoles have also been fairly disappointing going 3-7 ATS on the season and just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home. This week Florida State will enter their home stand against Boston College as large 20 point favorites marking the 7th time this season the Seminoles have been favored by at least 16 points. In those previous 7 games, the Seminoles are a measly 1-6 against the spread.
Should we expect that trend to continue this week from a team that has had a habit of starting slow or will Florida State finally put together a complete performance? Obviously Boston College would like to have their say in the way things unfold on Saturday. Steve Addazios Eagles have done a lot of good things this season most notably in the wins against Virginia Tech and USC. However the Eagles are still a work in progress which was evident in last weeks 38-19 loss to Louisville. Of those troubles, the passing game has been absolutely horrific. The Eagles are one of the worse teams in college football in terms of passing production averaging just 135 yards per game through the air. Quarterback Tyler Murphy nearly hit rock bottom last week as he threw 4 interceptions in the loss to the Cardinals.
The problems moving the football through the air have really hurt Boston College this season especially in situations where they have needed to turn to the passing attack. The Eagles had a chance to beat Clemson earlier this year but just 108 passing yards prevented that upset from happening. The good news is that Boston College has been able to run the football well and play strong defense. Defensively the Eagles give up just 21 points per game and offensively they have averaged 264 yards per game on the ground. Quarterback Tyler Murphy has proved to be most effective with his legs and eclipsed the 1,000 yard plateau last week while running back Jon Hillman has posted 11 touchdowns on the ground this season as well. The key for Boston College this week will be winning the battle on 1st down and playing good defense, both of which must happen to keep the Eagles out of obvious passing situations.
If those things happen, who knows what may happen with the way Florida State plays on a weekly basis. Reigning Heisman Trophy winner Jameis Winston has moved the ball effectively through the air and has 2,844 passing yards on the season. However Winston has been far from invincible as he was in 2013 and has thrown 12 picks this season. The Eagles defense has not been too impressive this season. Therefore Winston and the Seminoles ability to run the football should keep pressure on Boston Colleges defense. If the Seminoles execute and do not give up the football, they should be fun but then again that has been far from the status quo this year.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I lean towards Boston College and the points in this game. However, I think a better play will be on the under once the total is released. Consider both, good luck!
