Hawai’i Bowl Prediction: Cal vs. Hawai’i Odds, Stats & ATS Pick

The situational spot suggests a massive home-field advantage for Hawai’i, but the matchup metrics point the other way. Cal boasts a secondary that hasn’t allowed 300 passing yards in a game all season—a critical strength against the Rainbow Warriors’ pass-heavy “Run and Shoot” attack. Loot analyzes why the Golden Bears’ defensive profile creates a favorable equation despite the coaching upheaval.

California Golden Bears (7-5 SU, 5-7 ATS) vs. Hawai’i Rainbow Warriors (8-4 SU, 8-4 ATS)

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl

Date/Time: Wednesday, December 24, 2025 at 8PM EST

Where: Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex, Honolulu, Hawaii

TV: ESPN

The California Golden Bears travel to Honolulu to battle the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in the Hawaii Bowl on December 24. Hawaii achieved its highest win total in 6 years and gets a bowl game at home as a reward. Their last game was on November 29, a 27-7 win over Wyoming, their 8th win of the season. Cal, meanwhile, was also able to end their season in winning fashion, beating SMU on November 29 by the score of 38-35, finishing with 7 wins. Let’s break this down!

Storylines and Tie-Ins

These teams haven’t much of an on-field connection, their last meeting having taken place in 2016. Still, the respective head coaches were former teammates on Hawaii, with ex-star QB Timmy Chang the head coach of Hawaii, and interim head coach and former Hawaii head coach Nick Rolovich on the Cal sideline. Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is from Hawaii and will relish being able to play in front of people who can’t readily travel to the Bay Area to watch him play. It probably doesn’t say much for Cal that they dismissed head coach Justin Wilcox before the final game in the regular season. On at least the surface, you have a team that has hit a bit of a high-water mark in Hawaii, at home in a bowl game, taking on a Cal team whose season wasn’t good enough for their coach to finish the season. That would almost make you side with Hawaii just from a morale standpoint.

Then again, coach Rolovich is the real deal and knows how to navigate tricky seas. The locale is difficult, but at least Cal is a West Coast team and should presumably get more time to acclimate than if this were just a regular-season road game. And maybe there were enough chinks in the armor shown toward the end of the season for Hawaii, who cooled off a little bit, to make this a more doable equation for the Golden Bears. For all that a midseason coaching firing suggests, they weren’t that bad down the stretch, even beating a massively-favored Louisville team a few games back. It wasn’t enough to insulate Wilcox, who was unceremoniously dumped the following week after a lopsided loss to Stanford. And while they didn’t look good against SMU in a narrow win as two-touchdown favorites the next week, it shows they haven’t folded up their tents and gone home, and I’d suspect Rolovich will have them ready to play. If no offers come, he might be on this staff next season, so they’re all vested in this together. If I were a potential Hawaii backer in this one, I’d be hesitant to bank on Cal’s coaching issues as a reason.

Why is Cal Dangerous?

I would look for Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele to thrive in this spot. Not only is it a homecoming of sorts with a lot of sentiment involved radiating from all aspects of the team, but he closed the season in strong fashion. He can hit targets downfield and really improved over the course of the season, working with top receiving weapons like Jacob De Jesus and Trond Grizzell, along with a nice tight end in Mason Mini. The issue for them and what prevented greater success this season was that their line isn’t always up-to-snuff, unable to spring much of a run-game while also leaving their QB unprotected, something an advantageous Hawaii pass-rush could exploit. Hawaii hasn’t been great against the run, but you wonder if the Golden Bears can even take advantage, or is Sagapolutele going to be able to thrive keying in on a pretty good Hawaii secondary?

The Flip Side of the Coin

As one may have suspected with a Timmy Chang-led team, the quarterback can air it out, as Micah Alejado has been good this year in getting Hawaii back into bowl season. Aerially, they weren’t as dominant coming down the stretch of the season. But for most of the year, this was a pass-heavy offense. The best weapon in this game might be Hawaii receiver Jackson Harris, but they have depth with Pofele Ashlock and many other options. They don’t run as much as their opponent, but have been at least slightly more effective in doing so. The Hawaii offense can air it out, work underneath, run the ball, and show some variety.

Still, there is a bit of a one-dimensional nature to both teams. Hawaii is not able to really take full advantage of a Cal run-defense that might be their biggest team weakness. And if they do try to make it a part of their outlook this week, Cal has playmaking linebackers who can make a lot of things happen. It’s a secondary that has not allowed 300 yards passing all season, despite facing some pretty good aerial offenses.

Take the Small Road Favorite

The Rainbow Warriors getting this at home counts for a lot, as does their coaching and players who will be looking to cap off the season with a big win in a home bowl game. It’s just that Cal is not without connections to this, with the head coach, starting quarterback, and others on the staff and roster having abundant connections to this state and university, and therefore this game. Certain matchup components that allow the better aspects of Cal to thrive, with their weaknesses more camouflaged, will spell the difference, as the Golden Bears get the win and cover in Honolulu.

Loot’s Prediction to Cover the Point Spread:

I’m betting on the California Golden Bears minus 2 points.