Clemson vs. North Carolina Pick – ATS Predictions 9/28/19
No. 1 Clemson Tigers (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS) vs. North Carolina Tar Heels (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday September 28th, 2019. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Kenan Stadium Chapel Hill, N.C.
Point Spread:CLEM -27.5/UNC +27.5
Over/Under Total: TBA
Last week, I extended my college picks to 7-1 ATS this season, and I am ready to attack this Saturday again by highlighting an ACC showdown involving the no. 1 Clemson Tigers in a road trip to Chapel Hill against the North Carolina Tar Heels. The top-ranked Tigers moved to 3-1 ATS on the season last week thanks to a 52-10 victory over UNC Charlotte. Meanwhile, North Carolina is looking to regroup following a 2nd straight disappointing loss. After starting the season with a double-digit underdog victory against South Carolina and then an equally impressive win over Miami, the Tar Heels have lost back to back games against Wake Forest and Appalachian State. As the Tar Heels look to turn things around, they will enter this Saturday’s homestand against Clemson as nearly four-touchdown underdogs. However, I don’t think we should give up just yet on the Tar Heels at least in terms of the spread this week.
Clemson offense continues with underwhelming trends
A couple of weeks ago, I pointed out the fact that Clemson’s offense has failed to provide explosiveness this year, especially in the passing game. The rushing attack has been extremely productive thanks to the home run threat of Travis Etienne who has rushed for 395 yards with four touchdowns on the season. Still, the passing offense, which has provided the sparks to Head Coach Dabo Swinney’s offenses in recent years, has failed to meet expectations. Highly touted quarterback Trevor Lawrence continues to make mistakes with seven touchdown passes and five picks, and we could also make arguments the receiving corps have regressed with the exception of WR Tee Higgins. Either way, the Tigers are failing to hit plays down the field in the passing game and are making too many mistakes. This type of execution is not going to make things easy for Clemson despite their superior talent unless things change and I feel like this is a spot where the Clemson offense is once again receiving too many high scoring assumptions over North Carolina.
Turnovers and defense
Clemson’s defense is the superior group in this game, and it is the reason Clemson continues to cover spreads each week despite mediocre offensive output. Make no mistake about it, Clemson’s defense is legitimately one of the best units in college football. With that being said, I still think North Carolina will have some opportunities as long as they protect the football. Turnovers have been an enormous problem for the Tar Heels over the last few weeks, and that trend is certainly cause for concern again. However if North Carolina can protect the football, I believe they will be able to create enough scoring opportunities to keep this game within the points.
Tar Heels quarterback Sam Howell is completing nearly 65% passing with nine touchdowns and just two picks on the year. Running backs Javonte Williams and Michael Carter have combined to average more than 5 yards per touch with over 100 combined carries. Not to mention, North Carolina has some capable guys in the passing game with receivers Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome. Now I am not trying to prove to anyone that North Carolina has guys that will win match-ups every down against this dynamic Clemson defense. What I am saying is that the Tar Heels have the talent to compete and create scoring opportunities. If they can just put the ball in the end zone only twice, this spread becomes extremely difficult for Clemson to cover.
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Clemson vs. North Carolina betting trends
The Tigers are currently 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and have covered the spread in 4 of their previous five meetings with the Tar Heels. The Tigers are also 5-0 ATS in their recent five road trips. Meanwhile, North Carolina has hit the under in 4 of their last six games. The Tar Heels are also 4-1 ATS in their previous five meetings against Clemson in Chapel Hill.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: North Carolina +27.5. Make the Tar Heels a ridiculous +47.5 underdog by adding them into a 20 point football teaser bet found at Wagerweb Sportsbook!
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