Ole Miss vs. Alabama Pick 9/28/19
Ole Miss Rebels (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS) vs. No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday September 28th, 2019. 3:30PM (EST)
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium Tuscaloosa, A.L.
Point Spread:MISS +34.5/ALA -34.5 (Sportbet)
Over/Under Total: 61.5
Alabama’s relatively easy early-season schedule continues this week when they host the Ole Miss Rebels in Tuscaloosa. The Crimson Tide took down Southern Miss 49-7 last week in a game where QB Tua Tagovailoa threw five touchdowns. So far this season, Alabama has been untested facing four teams that have combined for just two wins against FBS teams. This week the trend continues as Alabama gets another opportunity against an inferior opponent inside the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium. However, the Crimson Tide will be enormous 34.5 point favorites marking the 4th time this season they have been favored by more than 30 points. As the Crimson Tide looks to remain unbeaten, I have to cast some skepticism on the enormous spread because Ole Miss has at least shown the ability to compete which could provide some value in taking the points.
Ole Miss remains surprisingly competitive
If you look at the numbers, the Rebels are 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS on the season which appears underwhelming. However, the Rebels have proved to be a tough out in every game this season. Ole Miss lost a close match to Memphis in the opener, bounced back with two straight wins including a victory over Arkansas, and most recently stood toe to toe with no. 23 Cal in a 28-20 loss. The offense continues to stay committed to the run with tailback Scottie Phillips, and the Rebels defense is a lot better than most expected going into the 2019 season. Despite a few big plays given up in the passing game, the Rebels are yielding just 94 yards per game on the ground and have held opponents to only 22 points per game. I realize Alabama has one of the most explosive offenses in college football and their air raid attack matches up well in this game. However, I also believe this betting line completely disrespects the talent of this Ole Miss football team who continues to play well each week.
Ole Miss QB Matt Corral - injury watch
One of the reasons I believe this betting line was released in such heavy favor of Alabama is because of the uncertainty at the quarterback position for the Rebels. Starting QB Matt Corral exited last week’s game against Cal in what is being described as a rib injury. At this point in the week, Corral’s status for this Saturday’s game remains uncertain. With that said, there is a reason to stay confident either way for Ole Miss backers. Freshman quarterback John Rhys Plumlee came in during clutch time last week against Cal and delivered by completing 7 of 7 passing for 82. The young quarterback looked sharp, made the right reads, and delivered a good ball down the field. Now I realize the match-up and pressure that Alabama presents this weekend is unparalleled to prior competition. Still, the point I am making is that I don’t believe the Rebels will experience a huge setback if they have to go with their backup so don’t let the injury status of Corral scare you from taking the points this week.
Ole Miss vs. Alabama betting trends
A lot of bettors like to look at trends, and I understand the analytical concept of betting trends. I simply think that is often overrated because we are dealing with a different team, different circumstances, and different situations with each new match-up. With that said, I will still mention the trends for those that like to consider the facts. The Rebels are just 1-9 ATS in their last ten games and have failed to cover the mark in their previous five road games. Meanwhile, Alabama is only 2-5 ATS in their past seven games but holds a strong 5-2 mark ATS in their last seven games against SEC competition.
With those things in mind, I still believe that Ole Miss remains the better betting option in this game because of their ability to compete, move the football on the ground, and play reliable defense. Yes, the weapons of the Alabama offense are scary, and I am sure they will connect on a few passes down the field. We just have to hope Ole Miss does not give up too many big plays. I also did a little research in case any of the trends above scared anyone. In the last five years, Alabama has been favored more than 30 points in just five games against SEC teams. The Crimson Tide are only 1-4 ATS during those five games. Therefore trust the narrative and remember this is an SEC West game which typically stays competitive!
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Ole Miss +34.5
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