Mike Mann breaks down the 2026 Conference USA season with total wins picks, leans, and trends for all 10 teams heading into the college football opener.
Conference USA Total Wins Preview
The college football season is now just a few weeks away from starting and the time is now to start grabbing some preseason bargains on total wins. Below you will find a breakdown of each of the Conference USA teams along with some picks, leans and trends.
Liberty
Over/Under: 8.5 wins
The opener at probable Sun Belt champion James Madison is likely the only game that the Flames will be underdogs in all season, which combined with a Conference USA schedule that has them hosting Western Kentucky and avoiding Jacksonville State puts Liberty in ideal position to not only clear their wins total but also take home the C-USA title.
PICK: Over 8.5 wins
PICK: Conference USA Champion (+250)
TREND: Liberty is 7-2 against the spread as a road underdog over the last 6 years. They are currently listed as a 6.5-point ‘dog against James Madison, a team they are also 1-7 against straight up in their last eight games.
Western Kentucky
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
A schedule that includes seven road games and non-conference matchups against Georgia and Indiana undoubtedly does the Hilltoppers no favors. They are still lined up well enough to get to at least seven regular season wins for the seventh straight year though as other than the road matchup against Liberty, WKU should be favored in their other nine games and at least benefit from some of those away matchups being against three of the worst teams in CUSA (New Mexico State, Sam Houston and MTSU).
PICK: Over 6.5 wins
TREND: The Hilltoppers are 6-1 versus the number in their last seven games as a home favorite and 11-6-1 against the spread in their last eighteen as a road favorite.
Jacksonville State
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
The Gamecocks have gone 21-5 versus Conference USA opponents over the last three seasons, and a 2026 slate that doesn’t include Liberty should help them continue to build on that impressive record. It’s how they begin their season against non-conference opponents (Georgia Southern, Eastern Kentucky and road trips to North Dakota State and Ohio) that will likely decide their total wins fate.
LEAN: Over 7.5 wins
TREND: Since jumping to the FBS level in 2023, the Gamecocks are 13-2 straight up when favored and 8-12 when not.
Kennesaw State
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
A 2-0 start seems like a given for the Owls with easy home games against West Georgia and Georgia State, but where they get their remaining five wins to clear their over/under total remains to be seen. A majority of Kennesaw’s easiest conference matchups are on the road, where they have gone just 5-17 in their last 22 overall, and they also draw all three teams (Liberty, WKU, Jax St.) listed above them in the preseason rankings on their schedule.
LEAN: Under 6.5 wins
TREND: Kennesaw went 8-1 both straight up and against the spread against Conference USA opponents in 2025.
Delaware
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The Blue Hens went 7-6 with a bowl victory a season ago in what was their first as an FBS team, but the oddsmakers are not expecting a repeat performance with their win total set at less than six. You can start to see why when seeing a schedule that includes non-conference road games against Vanderbilt and Virginia along with drawing all the top four of C-USA. Though on the flip side it also has plenty of chances for wins against teams like Coastal Carolina, FIU, MTSU, Missouri State, New Mexico State and FCS Merrimack.
LEAN: Over 5.5 wins
TREND: The Blue Hens do much better as an underdog at home than away from it, as they are 7-0-1 in their last eight games getting points at home but only just 2-9-1 against the spread in their last twelve matchups as road underdog.
Florida International
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
The Panthers’ schedule is set up where they will likely be favored in every game at home (Buffalo, Long Island, New Mexico State, MTSU, Missouri State, Sam Houston) and underdogs in every game on the road (South Florida, Florida Atlantic, Jax State, Liberty, Delaware and Kennesaw State). This should only solidify recent trends that have seen FIU go 8-4 at Pitbull Stadium in the last two seasons but just 3-13 in their last 16 road matchups.
LEAN: Under 6.5 wins
TREND: FIU is just 4-4 straight up in games against FBS opponents as a home favorite since 2020.
New Mexico State
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
A recent run of road failure that includes a 2-11 record in their last 13 away games and longer range 16-73 mark in their previous 89 does not bode well for the Aggies 2026 campaign. They have to travel to play their three most winnable conference games (Missouri State, MTSU, Sam Houston) and their early matchup against FCS Mercy Hurst could end up being the only game they are favored in all season. Though that doesn’t seem to matter too much considering they are just 2-2 straight up in their last four games giving points. And both victories were against FCS opponents. And they didn’t cover in any of them.
LEAN: Under 4.5 wins
TREND: New Mexico State has only been favored on the road in eight games since 2009, posting a 6-2 record against the spread in those matchups.
Missouri State
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
A schedule that has just three possible games in which the Bears could be favored (Lindenwood, Sam Houston and New Mexico State) does not set things up well for their second year at the FBS level. Missouri State has a knack of playing to the level of their competition of late, going 15-1 as a favorite over the last three seasons but just 4-16 as underdog, and they will need to break through that mold if they have any chance of getting to five wins.
LEAN: Under 4.5 wins
TREND: In the past eight seasons the Bears are 6-11 against the spread as a home underdog and 6-11-1 as a road favorite.
Middle Tennessee State
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
The Blue Raiders have just three games on the schedule that are decent chances for wins (Murray State, Sam Houston, New Mexico State), and much like Missouri State above them they will need to find a way to step up their play when getting points considering they have gone just 3-22 straight in their last 25 games as an underdog.
LEAN: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: In the last two seasons MTSU is an equally terrible 3-9 both at home and on the road.
Sam Houston
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
There is some hope for positivity in Huntsville with games against FCS Nicholls and fellow conference punching bags New Mexico State and MTSU at home. The Bearkats have also shown an ability to win as an underdog, with more than half of their victories (eight out of fifteen) since jumping to the FBS level coming in games when they were getting points. All that being said, there was also a reason they came in ahead of only UMass in the overall college football rankings of 138 teams, and even with lesser matchups at home at Shell Energy Stadium, I’m confidently taking the under on Sam Houston’s win total in 2026.
PICK: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: The Bearkats are 2-11 against the spread in their last thirteen games as a home favorite.
