RBD opens the 2026 college football season with a Week 1 blowout play on Oklahoma laying 40 points against UTEP, backed by a 77% FBS-only trend and Brent Venables’ history in this spot.
UTEP Miners at Oklahoma Sooners
A Week 1 College Football Blowout Prediction
From my article dated August 19th, 2025:
“In recent play, the past two seasons, this spot is 8-3, 72%. It’s a simple play, the only qualifying factor is this: a week one favorite of -37 or >.
(Most of the handicapping systems I use have multiple factors required for a game to qualify as a pick. I rarely share those parameters, but I’m sharing this one so that just in case I get hit by a bus between now and next summer, you won’t need me to come up with week 1 plays for college football next year.)
Good news/bad news:
The bad news is the play went 1-1 in 2024, losing a little juice if you played them both.
The good news is I only played and recommended one of them, Oklahoma -39.
The Sooners won 51-3.
(The other good news, of course, is that I DIDN’T get hit by a bus and I’m here to share the play with you again this season.)
Since 2020, this spot is now 16-10, 61%, all games.
But when both teams are FBS, it’s 10-3, 77%.
(I’m ALWAYS looking for subcategories to try and find something with a higher W%.)
And if you prefer betting on totals rather than sides, I’ve got this little nugget for you:
The Over in this spot (Week 1 Favs of 37 or higher) is 17-9, 65% since 2020.”
Now let’s update it to include games from 2025.
There were three games that qualified with FBS teams only:
Penn St/Nev, Georgia/Marsh, and Miss/Geo St.
In my article I gave a short analysis of all three and explained why despite the record of 10-3, 77% for this spot I eliminated Penn State and Georgia.
My only buy and recommendation was Mississippi.
And the only game that covered the large spread was . . . Mississippi.
In my first two seasons here at PredictEm there were five games that qualified.
The play went 2-5. I went 2-0.
So let’s try it again.
Four games qualify this year:
UTEP/Ok -40
Ball St/Ohio St -49′
N Tex/Indiana – 40′
Missouri St/Tex A&M -38′
Most of my systems are math based and I don’t consider the coaches at all, but for this particular play I give heavy weight to the head coaches – you want a guy who doesn’t shy away from blowing out and embarrassing his opponents.
Head coach Brent Venables’ Oklahoma Sooners won for me in this spot two years ago.
And I like them again this year.
There’s a reason why teams schedule weak opponents for their season opener – so they can get their teams off to a good start and instill confidence with a blowout victory.
But the strategy isn’t fully realized if you schedule weak teams and don’t actually blow them out.
The Sooners Week 1 pigeon last year was Illinois State.
They won 35-3 but failed to cover the spread of -39.
The year before it was Temple, and Oklahoma won 51-3, easily covering the 42 point spread.
The year before that it was Ark State.
The Sooners were laying 37 points.
They won 73-0.
Venables is a defensive guy. Normally you want an offensive minded head coach when you’re looking for a blowout but look at those three games under Venables. His opponents managed to score just six points.
ZERO TD’s and just two FG’s.
On the other side of the ball we have UTEP’s Scotty Walden entering his third season as the Miners head coach.
First up, totally irrelevant, but I’m mentioning it anyway – let’s talk about names.
Do you want your money on a coach named Brent Venable or Scotty?
Easy choice there.
Scotty’s teams have been Dogs of 37 or more twice in the past two seasons.
Two years back they were getting 41 from Tennessee and lost 56-0.
Last season they were getting 38 points from Texas and covered, losing 27-10.
Let’s talk about preparedness, how well is a team prepped going into their week one contest?
Last season, Scotty’s boys took on a team that was new to the FBS, the Delaware Fighting Blue Hens.
Naturally, the established FBS team, UTEP, was the Fav.
They lost.
They lost to a former FCS team.
They lost by 30 points.
They lost, as Favs, by 30 points, to a team named the Hens, A FEMALE CHICKEN.
My play:
Oklahoma -40
In my next college football article I’ll take a look at the other three games that qualify for this system. I’ll also update you with some interesting numbers on the total in these spots.
