Troy at James Madison
Thursday, October 29, 2026
7:30 PM ET, Bridgeforth Stadium
James Madison is a 20.5-point home favorite over Troy, and the total sits at 49.5. My play is the Under 49.5 (-113).
“Our offense is truly inept; we can’t score.” That’s not a rival coach talking trash. That’s Gerad Parker, Troy’s own head coach, after Saturday’s 21-14 home loss to a ULM team that hadn’t won a game. Five days later, his team heads to Harrisonburg for a rematch of last December’s Sun Belt title game, which JMU won 31-14 on this same field. The Dukes are 7-1 and fuming after their first loss. They also have to play this one without their best player.
Troy forgot how to throw the football. Against ULM, the Trojans threw for 47 yards, the fewest for the program since 2005. That wasn’t a one-off. Measured by success rate, which asks whether a play actually kept the offense on schedule, Troy’s passing attack ranks 128th in the country at 35.5%. Parker didn’t sugarcoat it: “We’ve lost our passing game.” Goose Crowder is playing through a shoulder injury he picked up at Louisiana, and he’s probable on the first availability report. Tucker Kilcrease is the other option, and top target TK Keyes is questionable after missing the ULM game.
That leaves Troy with one real move: run it, run it again, and keep the clock moving. The Trojans can do that. They rank 22nd in rushing yards per game and piled up 437 on the ground against Southern Miss. But they’re running into a JMU front that gives up only 3.4 yards per carry, 23rd in the nation. A ground-only offense facing a strong run defense is a recipe for long drives that end in punts.
The Dukes lose their engine. George Pettaway leads the Sun Belt with 824 rushing yards, and he’s out with a lower-body injury from the App State game. The drop-off behind him is steep. Against FBS teams, Nick Herman and Seth Cromwell have both been net negatives on a typical carry, losing ground on the expected-points scoreboard instead of adding to it. Even with Pettaway in Boone, Billy Napier admitted, “I do think we struggle to run it.” JMU already sits 102nd nationally in third-down conversions, so taking away the most reliable chain-mover makes those drives harder to finish.
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JMU can still move the ball. Camden Coleman has thrown for 1,567 yards with 14 touchdowns and just two picks, and tight end Cole Keller is a red-zone problem with five scores against FBS teams. The Dukes will score. Without Pettaway, though, more of those drives figure to stall or end in field goals instead of breezing into the end zone.
Troy’s defense is the part that still works. Teams reach the red zone against the Trojans and come away with points only 72.7% of the time, 13th-best in the country. Donnie Smith has recorded a sack in 15 games over the last two seasons, more than anyone in the nation, and he’ll be coming after a JMU protection that Napier said needs “some answers for the field pressure” after Boone. Troy held ULM to three points for more than 50 minutes before the late collapse. This group can win plenty of possessions on its own.
The market is already leaning this way. This total opened at 51.5 and has dropped to 49.5. Troy has gone under in six of its seven games, and the market pegs the Trojans for just 13.5 points. Add Troy’s short turnaround after a Saturday game against a JMU defense that’s had a full week to prepare, and 50 points looks like a lot to ask.
Why I could be wrong. JMU wins the hidden yardage as well as anyone. The Dukes start drives at their own 35 on average, and Michael Scott leads the nation with 709 return yards. Troy’s habit of coughing up the football doesn’t help. One return touchdown or two short fields could blow this number up before halftime, and JMU has averaged 43.7 points at home over the last two seasons. The Dukes’ pass defense also allows 260 yards per game, so if Crowder suddenly finds his arm, the Under is in trouble.
I’ll take my chances on a game where one offense can’t throw and the other just lost its feature back. Projected score: James Madison 31, Troy 10.
The Pick: Under 49.5 (-113)
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