Boise State at Washington State
Saturday, October 24, 2026
6:00 PM ET, Martin Stadium
Boise State is a 13.5-point road favorite with a total of 51.5. My play is Washington State +13.5.
Boise State has never won a football game in Pullman. Not once. Spencer Danielson was on the sideline for the last attempt, a 47-44 triple-overtime loss in 2017, and he already knows what’s waiting this time: “I know the student section has been moved to be right behind our bench, so I know they’ll be rolling.” A 1-6 team isn’t supposed to scare a ranked one. But a 1-6 team that just found a quarterback, playing at home and getting two touchdowns? That’s a different story.
The Broncos deserve their ranking. They’ve won five straight, Maddux Madsen has 11 touchdown passes and zero interceptions against FBS opponents, and Dylan Riley is ripping off 6.3 yards a carry. Boise’s offense ranks among the top dozen in the country in per-play efficiency. Nobody here is arguing the Broncos are the worse team. The question is whether they’re two touchdowns better on the road, and I don’t think the answer is yes.
Owen Eshelman changed the Cougars overnight
For six weeks, Washington State’s offense was a punt waiting to happen. With Caden Pinnick under center, the Cougars scored four offensive touchdowns against five FBS opponents. Then first-year coach Kirby Moore took over play-calling, handed the job to Owen Eshelman, and the Cougars went to Corvallis and dropped 30 on a 5-2 Oregon State team. Eshelman threw for 289 yards and ran for 136 more, with 425 total yards and three touchdowns in his first college start. “We just had much better rhythm,” Moore said.
Boise’s defense is exactly the kind of defense a running quarterback can hurt. The Broncos are fine down to down and rank inside the top third nationally in success rate allowed. But when something breaks, it really breaks: they’re allowing 6.80 yards per play, among the worst rates in the FBS. Boise defensive coordinator Erik Chinander already sees it coming: “You’ve got to keep him in the pocket; can’t allow him to scramble around.” That’s easier said than done when Boise has almost no film on this kid. It doesn’t help that the Broncos entered the bye ranked dead last in the country in 40-yard plays allowed.
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Then add the matchup quirks. Moore and offensive coordinator Matt Miller both played receiver at Boise State, and Miller coached the Broncos’ wideouts until this year. They know Boise’s personnel. The Cougars also have a defensive front that Boise’s own offensive coordinator, Nate Potter, called “a really, really high motor, a very talented group,” led by linebacker Keith Brown and his 51 tackles. Boise’s special teams have muffed several punts this year, and Washington State has already returned two punts for touchdowns. Short fields are how big underdogs stay close.
Washington State isn’t fully healthy, though. Left tackle Ashton Tripp (ankle) is day-to-day after missing the Oregon State game, and receiver Darrius Clemons, a starter in all seven games, hurt his ankle in Corvallis and left on crutches. If both sit, Eshelman has a backup protecting his blind side and one fewer reliable target.
The market has been right to respect this team, too. Washington State is 5-2 against the spread and 4-1 as an underdog, while Boise is just 2-3 against the number as a favorite. One public power-rating model makes this Boise by about 10. That’s three and a half points of cushion at +13.5.
The case against me
Eshelman has one career start, and one great afternoon can be a mirage once a defense has film on him. Washington State’s turnover margin is among the worst in the country at minus-1 per game, and handing Madsen extra possessions is how +13.5 turns into a 24-point loss. Boise comes in rested off a bye, while Washington State played last Saturday. If Riley and Sire Gaines repeat their Fresno State game, where both topped 100 yards and Boise ran for 274, the Broncos can just shorten the game and grind out the cover. I’ll play this down to +13. At +12.5 it’s only a lean.
Boise likely leaves Pullman with the win. I just expect the Cougars to make the Broncos sweat for all four quarters in front of a student section that will be loud the whole way.
Projected score: Boise State 31, Washington State 21.
The Pick: Washington State +13.5
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