Rutgers at Northwestern
A game prediction on the Total by guest handicapper Benedict Arnold.
This week, I’m testing one of my favorite movie quotes, one I mention on a regular basis as related to sports betting.
From the terrific “Witness for the Prosecution” (put it on your Must See list if you haven’t already seen it):
“The scales of Justice may tip one way or another but ultimately they balance out.”
Sir Wilfred (the great Charles Laughton)
And so it is for trends.
Same as the scales of Justice, eventually they balance out.
And I’m testing that theory on Saturday.
To explain what I mean, here are some numbers:
NP Under
2020: 28-4, 87%
2021: 34-21, 63%
2022: 34-32, 51%
2023: 21-17, 55%
2024: 23-13, 64%
2025: 11-5, 68%
Combined total: 151-92, 62%
Easily the best money maker I’ve had, ever.
But there’s a problem with it.
Let’s look at it for the number of total picks, year by year.
2020: 32
2021: 55
2022: 66
2023: 38
2024: 36
2025: 16
The number of games that qualify has been dropping for three straight years, including a 56% drop off from 2024 to 2025.
Now, it’s Week 8, 2026, and only TWO games have qualified this season. It’s more evidence that this play has finished its run.
Even more telling – the record is 0-2.
Two games qualify this week.
Rutgers at Northwestern and San Diego St at Colorado St. (Oddly enough, both losses in the 0-2 record had Colorado State as one of the two teams. That gives me a 2-0 team specific Fade if I choose to play the late spot.)
I could be a bitter clinger, refusing to let go of the past and betting on the Under, hoping it will return to its previous form, where it had a 62% Win clip over the past six years.
But, no.
I feel like Benedict Arnold.
I’m going against the best and most profitable handicapping model I’ve ever had.
But loyalty/shmoyalty, I’m talking about betting money here so there is no loyalty, only reality.
And reality says the play is dead, the trend is reversing. It’s time to go the other way.
The Rutgers game is an early morning game, San Diego State kicks off mid-afternoon, so I have the luxury of playing one spot before making the decision to buy the other one or not. I like that setup.
There’s a few other things I like about this morning spot.
First, the game also qualifies for my T1 Over model.
The record for this play thus far is 20 – 16.
That’s 55%, a few points under the 58% I usually use as a cut off when making my buying decisions.
But, there’s also this.
The 20-16 record is ALL teams.
Looking at team specific numbers, Rutgers has been in this spot once before.
On September 9th, my T1 model said the Rutgers/USC game would go over 60 points.
Final score? 42-35, Over by 17 points.
Both the Rutgers defense and offense contributed to the cause, scoring 35 and giving up 42.
I also like this – combined these two teams are 8-2 to the Over this season, so as long as Reversion Toward the Mean doesn’t set in I’ve got that stat in my favor, too.
Rutgers quarterback Dylan Lonergan is coming off a 23 for 35, 291 yards, 3 TD’s, 1 INT performance last week.
For Northwestern, quarterback Aidan Chiles has flourished under new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly.
His game log line reads 98 for 139, good for a 70% completion rate.
He’s thrown for 1,398 yards, 9 TD’s, zero INT’s.
He’s also run for 7 TD’s.
The line is currently at 58′.
The Wildcats are averaging 33 PPG, Rutgers puts up 26. Combined, 59, a hair above the total on this game.
The Wildcats are at the top of the college football defensive rankings for points per game, surrendering just 17.
Not good for someone looking to buy the Over.
But Rutgers is near the bottom, ranked 125, allowing 37 PPG. Combined, 54, slightly Under the total for this one.
I think Rutgers can get me 27 points here, 20 for themselves and at least 7 for the Wildcats from turnovers. The Scarlet Knights ARE going to lose this game. And in their three losses this year Lonergan has thrown FIVE INT’s.
I’m expecting one or two again this week as he desperately tries to bring his team back from being behind on the scoreboard in the second half.
Check the forum for updates on Saturday.
I may/may not add the other game that fits this NP Under spot, San Diego State at Colorado State.
My play:
Rutgers/N’Western Ov 58′
Recap: 2-2
Record: 13-13
Review: Lost the Cincinnati game with just 2 seconds left on the clock, keeping me from a 3-1 day. I’m okay at .500, it’s how my handicapping usually works. I gather data all season long then I use it to make my move late in the season and the postseason to finish with a profit.
