Coastal Carolina Chanticleers vs. Kansas Jayhawks Picks

by | Sep 10, 2020 | cfb

Coastal Carolina Chanticleers (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS) vs. Kansas Jayhawks (0-0 SU, 0-0 ATS)

When: Saturday, September 12, at 10 p.m.

Where: Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kan.

TV: FS1

Point Spread: CCU +7/KU -7 (Bookmaker - Fast Payouts! One of oldest and most trusted! HUGE limits! Take no risks, go with the biggest and safest online!)

Total: O/U 56

Outlook

At first glance, it might be hard to understand why FS1 is bothering to televise this game between two of the worst programs in FBS instead of West Coast baseball or reruns of the Bundesliga. But Kansas and Coastal take center stage because they’re the only game in town in the late time slot, as there’s no Pac-12 or Mountain West to compete with. It’s a chance for the Jayhawks to see if they’ve figured out the issues that cost them last year against Coastal, as Kansas shot itself in the foot repeatedly in a 12-7 loss to the Chanticleers a year ago.

But Coastal returns just about everyone from the team that came to Lawrence and won a year ago, and the Chanticleers have extra motivation to try to take down the Jayhawks again, as this game was supposed to be the historic first trip by a Power 5 school to the teal turf of Conway, S.C. Instead, the Big 12’s decision to only allow home games in the non-conference meant that the schools swapped home dates, and Coastal will now have to wait until 2021 to host Kansas. Getting a second straight win would be a significant coup for the Chanticleers, and they’ve got the talent to do it.

How the Public is Betting the Coastal Carolina/Kansas Game

The line has swung hard toward Kansas, with the number doubling from an open of 3.5 to the current 7-point line. The total has dropped from 58.5 to 56.

Injury Concerns

Coastal Carolina:

Coastal Carolina reports no injuries.

Kansas:

Kansas reports no injuries.

Get all of this week's betting analysis: College Football Picks ATS >>>

When Coastal Carolina Has the Ball

Typically, when a Group of 5 team beats a Power 5 opponent, it’s because they had a great day. In Coastal’s case, it was because they were just less inept than Kansas was. That was what really stung for the Jayhawks last year: the Chanticleers didn’t even play that well and still ended up victorious.

After all, what else is there to say about a performance where the starting quarterback didn’t even top 100 yards passing? Fred Payton returns under center, but he’s hardly likely to trouble the Jayhawks considering he only threw nine passes all season and ended up with a paltry 98 yards through the air.

Instead, look for Kansas to go all-in on stopping running back C.J. Marable. Kansas was able to stop some tough runners last year, but Marable shredded the Jayhawks for 148 yards on the ground, his first of four 100-yard performances during the season. If he’s able to establish the ground game early and force Kansas onto its back foot, he’s got the ability to control the tempo and spring an upset for the second straight year.

When Kansas Has the Ball

It’s a similar situation to a year ago for Kansas, which will be breaking in a new starting quarterback after losing Carter Stanley to graduation. Unlike last year, Kansas has opted for a shred of secrecy for this season, as coach Les Miles has refused to say who’s actually going to be the quarterback between senior Thomas McVittie and junior Miles Kendrick. Neither has much experience, and Miles went as far as to suggest that both might play in the only non-conference game that Kansas has on its schedule.

Whoever ends up taking most of the snaps for the Jayhawks will spend a lot of time handing the ball off to Pooka Williams. The all-Big 12 back has punished defenses during his first two years in college, as he’s the first Kansas running back since the legendary Gale Sayers to gain 2,000 yards in his first two seasons in Lawrence. Kansas also returns some quality pieces at the skill positions, as Andrew Parchment and Stefon Robinson Jr. combined to gain more than 1,500 receiving yards a season ago.

But the key will be consistency from the quarterback, which was often missing for Kansas in 2019. The Jayhawks’ offense was often a tire fire last year, as Kansas had five games where it failed to break 14 points. That happened three times in the final four games last year, and the Jayhawks have to have fixed what went wrong at the end of last year if they hope to have a chance of good things this year.

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Betting Trends

During the final few weeks of last season, the under got hot for the Chanticleers while cooling off for the Jayhawks. Coastal saw the under hit in three of its final four contests, while the linemakers got wise to Kansas’ defense and started scheduling Kansas as a tough out. Unfortunately for under backers, that was right when the Kansas defense collapsed on itself in losses to Iowa State and Baylor, neither of which was ever close to going under the total.

Where the Jayhawks really collapsed last year was against the spread, as Kansas finished 5-7 ATS and lost three of its final four by ridiculous margins, topped by a 61-6 defeat against Baylor. It begs the question as to whether last year’s finish was because of the Jayhawks hitting the wall or the team regressing in its first year under Miles, but in either case, it wasn’t good when it mattered most.

There’s probably going to be value in a lower-scoring first quarter between these teams. Kansas made a lot of progress under Miles last year, but one thing the Jayhawks never figured out was the quick start. Kansas never once topped seven points in the first quarter last year, and with no crowd to feed off at Memorial Stadium for this game, you have to wonder how long it’s going to take Kansas to get its feet wet with a new quarterback in command. Throw in that Coastal is a run-first squad, and you’ve got all you need to come in well under the first-quarter total of 13 to 14 points.

Weather Report

If the Kansas grounds crew does its job, it’ll be a great day for football. The week is supposed to be ugly with storms covering eastern Kansas, but Saturday is supposed to be a clear and pleasant 83 degrees.

Dan’s Pick to Cover the Spread

The low spread gives me some pause before deciding which way to go in this one. Kansas made some strides last year and has the revenge factor on its mind, which should provide all the motivation that the Jayhawks need. However, Kansas is still breaking in a new quarterback and has a lot of work to do before it gets to where Miles wants his team to be.

That tells me that it might be a good idea to pick Kansas to just ease into its opener and end up playing a tighter game than it should. With how the line is moving, I recommend waiting to see if you can get that half-point bump on the final line, as I think the +7.5 hook would be enough to give Coastal the cover. As it is, I’ll take the Chanticleers to stick close and come away with an ATS win. Want a free bet but don’t want to deposit a bunch of money? Intertops Sportsbook is currently offering a deposit $25 get an extra $50 free (200% bonus!). Once you’ve signed up and deposited, you need to go to their special offers page and type in bonus code: ROOKIE200 in order to get the bonus credited. This needs to b done prior to placing any bets.