College Football Early Buy, 67% Play

by | Last updated Jun 18, 2024 | cfb

I’ve already made my first buy of the college football season, based on a week one system: Oklahoma -39

Yes, -39.

You might be asking, “Is Chalk Boy ghost-writing this column today?”
My answer is this: 67%.
That’s the Win percentage I have working for me on this situational spot. Hence, -39.
(“Hence” is a word you just don’t get to use enough, but it slipped in nicely there.)

I’m not talking about a short term data collection of one or two seasons for that 67%.
It’s a four year lookback, 2020 through 2023.

And I’m not talking about a small data sample of just a few games. It covers 24 week one games over those four years. And the record is 16-8, 67%.

In fact, in recent play, the past two seasons, this spot is 8-3, 72%.

It’s a simple play, the only qualifying factor is this: a week one favorite of -38 or >.
(Most of the methods I use have multiple factors required for a game to qualify as a pick. I rarely share those parameters but I’m sharing this one so that just in case if I get hit by a bus between now and next summer you won’t need me for a solid way to come up with week 1 plays for college football next year.)

The record is even better when the opponent is another FBS team. Week one -38 or > Favs playing FCS opponents are just 2-2 in this spot. This makes FBS vs FBS opponents 14-6, 70%.
And in this game Oklahoma is playing Temple, an FBS opponent.

Recent play, the past two seasons, week one Favs of -38 or >, FBS vs FBS, is 6-1.

And Oklahoma is not the only play that qualifies, Ohio St -50′ does, too.

Here’s my betting strategy – I bought Oklahoma -39. It’s a Friday game. If it wins I’ll make the decision whether to buy Ohio St on Saturday or bank the Ok unit.
If Ok loses I’ll buy the Ohio St game because it has a higher percentage of going 1-1 than 0-2.

If you’re wondering if Oklahoma Head Coach Brent Venables will have his team ready to go in week one, in last year’s season opener the Sooners won 73-0 over FBS opponent Ark St.
If you’re going to lay heavy wood with a big Fav you wanna do it with a HC who doesn’t mind running up the score.

I bought Oklahoma at -39. Sorry I didn’t get this posted sooner because the line has gone up. You can still get -39 with -115 juice attached (you HAVE to have multiple accounts so you can take advantage of the different numbers available and advantageous prices) but -40′ is the common number found at most books so that’s the number I’ll use here.
Why not use the line I got?
Because posting picks with lines that aren’t readily available to most bettors is an exercise in vanity. That ain’t me, I’m here to try and help you win.

This is my first investment size unit of the season.

Ok – 40′

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