Colorado Buffaloes vs. Oregon Ducks Pick 10/11/19

by | Oct 8, 2019 | cfb

Colorado Buffaloes (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) vs. Oregon Ducks (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS)

College Football Week 7

Date and Time: Friday, October 11, 2019 at 10PM EDT

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Oregon

TV: Fox Sports One

Point Spread: COLO +20.5/ORE -20.5 (Best Odds)

Over/Under Total: 57

The Colorado Buffaloes come to Eugene for a week seven Pac-12 matchup with the Oregon Ducks at Autzen Stadium. When it’s the Pac-12, hold on to your hats, as this season has even more of an “anything goes” feel to it than usual. For Oregon, things have gone according to plan since a week one loss at Auburn. They are now 4-1 after moving to 2-0 in the conference last week with a 17-7 win over Cal. Dug in at home; they currently host a Colorado squad looking to make their mark. Last week, they fell to Arizona at home, 35-30, which was quite a letdown after they upset ASU on the road the previous week. Who can cover the number in Eugene?

Most Jarring Matchup Component in This Game

The Oregon defense looks to be for real. In this conference, that usually means they’ll give up 49 points this week—that’s how off-form the Pac-12 can be on a weekly basis. In week one, they gave up 27, when a late Auburn spurt cost them. Until then, they had been shutting the Tigers down in their building for most of the game. Since then, the Ducks have allowed, in succession, 6, 3, 6, and 7 points in their subsequent four games, outscoring foes in that span by the lopsided tally of 150-22. Granted, those numbers are a bit swollen from games against the likes of Montana and Nevada, but in two conference games, the defense has yielded 13 points.

On Sunday, we saw the strangling Oregon “D” get to the quarterback. Only an interception that gave Cal good field position stopped the defense from registering a possible shutout. This came against a Cal offense that had lost its starting quarterback and was groping a bit, but it’s par for the course for how they’ve been playing lately. With Jordon Scott upfront at nose tackle stopping the run, linebackers Troy Dye and Isaac Slade-Matautia, and playmaking DB Jevon Holland, they are stocked and looking like a top-ten unit nationally.

Colorado Looking for Answers

Against an Oregon pass-defense allowing just 166 yards a game, Colorado quarterback Steven Montez will be facing his toughest task of the season. It’s their forte. Montez is averaging nearly 300 yards a game. With 67% completions and ten TDs against just two picks, he hasn’t been bad in spots this season. The run-game isn’t terrible, as they get plays from Alex Fontenot and Jared Mangham, but their aerial attack is what they’re really about. Tony Brown is a real weapon through the air, and with established weaponry like KD Nixon and Lavinska Shenault, Jr. (questionable), the Colorado offense has some spunk. Against Nebraska and in both conference games, they were over 30 points. But this Buffaloes bunch is a bit one-dimensional, and on the road against this defense, they’re going to need a lot to go right.

Will the Ducks Go to Work on this Road Buffaloes Defense?

On Sunday at home, we saw the Wildcats offense and QB Khalil Tate put up over 400 yards on this Buffaloes defense, making one wonder what Justin Herbert and Company will have in store this week in Eugene. In fact, all season long, we’ve seen the Buffaloes pass-defense laboring more often than not. They have playmaking, namely with safety Mikial Onu, who has four picks, but teams are feasting on this secondary as a whole. And even with teams so readily exploiting the Colorado pass-defense, the run-defense has also suffered massively in spots. Whereas we see Oregon allowing baseball-type point totals, the Colorado defense hasn’t allowed less than 30 points in any game yet this season.

That looks to be a major issue in Eugene against an Oregon offense that will be looking to turn it loose a little after grinding their way to a 17-7 win over Cal last week. They may have struggled against one of the conference’s better defenses in Cal, but they can do a lot of different things that Colorado has failed to contain this season. Justin Herbert could really go to work on this secondary, as he has 15 TD passes against just one pick this season on nearly 72% completions. That type of precision would seem to be murder on this Colorado bunch, especially with skilled ball-catchers like Johnny Johnson, III., Jacob Breeland, Jaylon Redd, and others. And with CJ Verdell (questionable) and Travis Dye doing their thing coming out of the backfield, the Colorado defense might be on its heels before too long. This Oregon aerial attack contains future NFL players. They’re at home. They’re looking to put a big run together and possibly set up for some big things. An incoming Colorado defense that is getting torched through the air by both Arizonas could be up against it in this spot.

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Lay the Number on the Home Favorite

Again, here we are trying to make sense of a Pac-12 game. At this point, seeing an Oregon or Colorado license plate on your way to the store could mean more than trying to do an analysis. But I think Oregon might be a conference team that can insulate itself from some of that madness. Against this opponent and at home, I see this as being a mismatch across a few different areas. I think Colorado might hang in there a little bit, completing a few big pass-plays perhaps. But over the course of the game, the grind will take its toll on Colorado, with the Ducks pulling away in Eugene for the win and cover.

Loot’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: I’m betting on the Oregon Ducks minus 20.5 points. Bet the Ducks as half point favorites or the Buffs as +40.5 underdogs by inserting either into a MASSIVE 20 point teaser at the online bookie with the most wagering options: 5Dimes!