Florida Gators at Missouri Tigers
Saturday, October 3, 2026
3:30 PM ET, Faurot Field
Florida is a 5.5-point road favorite over Missouri with a total of 56.5. My play is the Tigers getting the points.
Florida just hung 52 points on then-No. 4 Ole Miss at The Swamp in a 52-28 rout that vaulted Jon Sumrall’s first-year team to No. 8 in the AP Poll. Seven days later, the Gators go on the road to face a ranked SEC opponent coming off the biggest win of the Sumrall era.
Florida’s only road game so far didn’t go smoothly. The Gators went to Auburn in Week 3 and escaped 44-39. Their other three games came at home, including blowouts of Florida Atlantic (66-21) and Campbell (52-3). Saturday is their second true road test of the season, and the first one cost them 39 points.
The Gators allow 248.3 passing yards per game, 112th in the country, and Missouri has a quarterback who can exploit it. Austin Simmons has thrown for 947 yards with 11 touchdowns and zero interceptions while completing 65.4% of his passes. Missouri is averaging 35.8 points per game, and 24-28 points is a realistic target against this secondary.
Florida runs for 260 yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry, and Jadan Baugh has 600 yards and 11 touchdowns at 7.2 yards a pop. Missouri allows just 100.3 rushing yards per game. If Eliah Drinkwitz’s defense can make Florida one-dimensional, Aaron Philo has to win it through the air. Philo was efficient against Ole Miss (16 of 23 for 196 yards and a touchdown), but the run game set that up.
Missouri dropped a top-25 matchup 31-24 at Mississippi State last week after starting 3-0 with wins over Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Kansas and Troy. The Tigers come home to Faurot Field for their SEC home opener with a top-10 team on the other sideline.
Florida’s offense ranks first nationally in EPA per play and is scoring 53.5 points per game, and if Baugh gets loose early this could turn into another Gators blowout. Missouri’s defense has allowed only 20.8 points per game, though, and Florida’s defense has been shaky at 22.8 points allowed per game, which keeps the Tigers in position to answer.
Realistic outcomes: Florida 31, Missouri 28 (3-point margin, Missouri covers +5.5); Missouri 28, Florida 24 (Missouri wins outright); Florida 28, Missouri 24 (4-point margin, Missouri covers by 1.5); or Florida 35, Missouri 24 (11-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Missouri.
The Pick: Missouri Tigers +5.5
Take the Tigers and the points at home against a Gators team coming off its biggest win, and bring some extra bankroll into Saturday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet Missouri +5.5 and the rest of your Week 5 college football picks.
