Iowa State Cyclones (2-4 SU, 2-3-1 ATS) vs. Baylor Bears (6-0 SU, 4-1 ATS)
College Football Week 8
Date/Time: Saturday, October 24th, 12:00pm
Where: McLane Stadium Waco, Texas
by Bob, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: ISU +38 / BAY -38
Over/Under Total: 81
Saturday at noon, the Iowa State Cyclones will travel into Waco, Texas to try and upset the nations second ranked Baylor Bears. This is a Big 12 game that has high scoring written all over it. Baylor comes in at 6-0 and on an absolute tear as of late, while the Cyclones are 2-4 and would just love to have the one signature win in 2015. This will be the fifth meeting since 2011 and during that time, Baylor has won three of the four and covered the spread in those as well. Could this year be any different?
It has become like clockwork that Baylor comes in highly favored. This week is no different since the Bears are 38 point favorites at home, while the over under is set at 81. Yes, you read that correctly, 81 points total is the line for the over/under going into Saturdays game. It does appear however that the public is not too high on Baylor in this game. As of Monday night, only 54% of the money is on Baylor to cover the huge spread. As far as the over under however, 64% like the game to soar over that number. As always though, large spreads are very scary. One play, even in a blowout, can ruin that spread either way.
Baylor is obviously not happy about last season and being left out of the college football final four. They have been kicking ass and taking names this seasonpardon the language. Baylor is averaging a whopping 64 points per game which is obviously tops in the nation. Their offense is not just all passing either. Led by Shock Linwood, Baylor averages 348 yards a game on the ground. Add that to the 371 they average passing and yep, you have itthese guys are averaging over 700 yards A GAME on offense! Sheesh. Baylors defense though could be a little better. They are allowing almost 25 points per game, but I believe much of that can be attributed to the fact that they are on the field so much. When your team is averaging two minutes a drive, you do not get much time to breathe. The key this weekend to get the cover is just play Baylor football. With weapons like Seth Russell, Shock Linwood, and Corey Coleman, the Iowa State defense will have their hands full. Just do not make mistakes and do not come out flat and I think Baylor will be okay this Saturday.
Iowa State will need a miracle to win this game. Yeah, there is not much else that I can say other than that. At 2-4 on the 2015 season, there is just one way to put it, Iowa State is not a very good football team. They have the 94th ranked scoring defense to go along with the 151st ranked scoring offense. This is not a good recipe for winning. You need at least one side of the ball to step up but when you struggle on both sides, things get badquick. On a positive note, Iowa State did come out this past weekend and hang with TCU for almost a half. The final score was 45-21 but they did show signs of life in that game, and one good half against Baylor may not win the game for them, but it could lead to them covering the 38 points and keeping it reasonably close. This weekends goal for Iowa State is just that, keep it reasonably close. If Baylor makes mistakes, which is rare, but if they do then the Cyclones must take advantage. The Baylor offense is going to give this defense trouble so I am calling out the Iowa State offense. Baylors defense is not a top tier defenseso score! Iowa State will need at 24-30 points to have a shot to stay within the 38.
This pick is simple for me. Baylor is amazing on offense and Iowa State is not a good defensive team. This is another pick your score game for Baylor and every time it comes down to that they choose somewhere between 60-70. I think Baylor comes out and puts this game away very early. I see one of those 42-0 games at half that gets even more out of hand in the second half. Baylor wins this game 65-13 on their way to 7-0.
Bobs Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Take the Baylor Bears -38 points and pick the game to go UNDER the posted total of 81!
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