Iowa State Cyclones at BYU Cougars
Friday, October 9, 2026
9:15 PM ET, LaVell Edwards Stadium
BYU is a 10.5-point home favorite over Iowa State with a total of 48.5. My play is the Under 48.5.
Iowa State’s games against ranked teams are the entry point here. The Cyclones are 3-2, and both losses came to ranked opponents in low-scoring games: a 16-13 loss to Iowa (29 total points) and a 31-17 loss to Utah (48 total points). Iowa State’s offense ranks 61st nationally in EPA per play, and against good defenses it hasn’t been able to keep up. Jimmy Rogers’ first Iowa State team has been competitive, but it hasn’t scored more than 17 points against a ranked opponent.
BYU’s most recent game shows how the Cougars win against real competition. The No. 8 Cougars are 4-0 and 4-0 against the spread, but last week’s 17-10 win at TCU was a grind. BYU managed just 59 yards in the first quarter, the game was tied 7-7 at halftime, and the defense carried the night with two sacks and four tackles for loss in the first quarter alone, plus a fourth-down interception returned 59 yards by Faletau Satuala. Bear Bachmeier made the key plays with two rushing touchdowns, but this was a defense-first win.
BYU’s offense may also be shorthanded. LJ Martin, who ran for 176 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado State, left the TCU game with an injury. If Martin is limited, BYU’s offense leans even more on Bachmeier (704 passing yards and six touchdowns through the air, plus four rushing scores before last week) and a group of backup backs. That favors a slower, possession-based game.
The risk to the Under is BYU’s ground game against a weak Iowa State run defense. BYU ranks third nationally in EPA per rush, and Iowa State ranks 95th in EPA per rush defense. The Cougars averaged 262.7 rushing yards per game through three weeks and scored 44 per game over that stretch. If BYU’s run game gets rolling early, the Cougars can put up 35 on their own. But a run-heavy game plan also burns clock, and Iowa State has shown little ability to score enough against good teams to push this total over.
Realistic outcomes: BYU 27, Iowa State 17 (44 total); BYU 24, Iowa State 20 (44 total); BYU 28, Iowa State 14 (42 total); or BYU 31, Iowa State 21 (52 total, over). Three of four scenarios stay under 48.5.
The Pick: Iowa State/BYU Under 48.5
Take the Under in a Friday night game in Provo, and bring some extra bankroll into the weekend. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook get a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. That’s a FREE way to bet the Iowa State/BYU Under 48.5 and the rest of your Week 6 college football picks.
