Kansas State Wildcats at Kansas Jayhawks Week 12 Pick ATS
Kansas State Wildcats (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) at Kansas Jayhawks (7-3, 5-5), 11/18/23
When: 7 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 18
Where: David Booth Memorial Stadium
Point Spread: KSU -7.5/Kan +7.5
Money line: Kansas St. -315/KU +250
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Kansas State is playing to stay alive in the Big 12 while Kansas is playing to quash those hopes, heading into the 121st edition of the Sunflower Showdown Saturday night in Lawrence.
The Wildcats are also aiming for a 15th straight victory in this rivalry, while the Jayhawks would probably love to stick a pitchfork in those plans.
The Week 12 college football betting market opened Kansas State at -7.5 over Kansas, with an over/under of right around 55.5.
According to Sagarin’s CFB ratings at Sagarin.com, the line on this game should be eight points.
Kansas State-Kansas Betting Preview
The Wildcats just bounced back from that tough loss at Texas two weeks ago to beat Baylor last Saturday 59-25. Kansas State, favored by 21 points, drove its first four possessions of the game to touchdowns, led 35-7 early in the second quarter, let the Bears get within 38-19 in the third quarter but re-applied the gas and pulled away for the win and the cover.
The Wildcats produced 451 yards worth of offense and scored twice on defense.
Back in October K State beat Texas Tech, TCU and Houston back-to-back-to-back by an average score of 40-8. The ‘Cats then trailed at Texas 27-7 in the third quarter, battled back to force OT but lost 33-30.
At 5-2 in conference play, Kansas State is part of a four-way tie for second place in the Big 12 with Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Iowa State. The Wildcats already own a loss to the Cowboys, but they get the Cyclones at home to end the season next week.
With a couple wins and a little help from elsewhere K State could make the Big 12 championship game again.
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Kansas, playing most of the game with its backup quarterback, out-gained Texas Tech 344-312 and out-rushed the Raiders 207-136. But the Jayhawks could not convert in the red zone, managing just six points on three incursions that reached the Tech 6-yard line.
Three weeks ago, Kansas beat Oklahoma 38-33, and two weeks ago, the Jayhawks beat Iowa State 28-21. But the loss to Texas Tech drops Kansas to 4-3 in conference play.
So the Jayhawks will just have to play Saturday’s game for pride.
These two teams have played four common opponents so far this season, Central Florida, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech. Kansas State played those foes to 2-2 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, and +3 yards per game, Kansas to 1-3 both SU and ATS and -76 YPG.
Kansas State-Kansas Recent History
The Wildcats own a 14-game winning streak on the Jayhawks, going 11-3 ATS along the way. Last year’s game was 35-27 early in the fourth quarter, but Kansas State tacked on the last 10 points to win 45-27 and cover at -11.
College Football Betting Trends
Kansas State is 39-20-1 ATS in four-plus seasons under Coach Klieman.
The Overs are 6-4 in Wildcats games this season, which are averaging 57 total points.
The Overs are 5-4 in Jayhawks games, which are averaging 54 points.
Free College Football Betting Pick
Kansas State gets the checkmark in the QB comparison because Will Howard is pretty good, and Kansas might be down to a freshman third-stringer. The Wildcats also own the better defense and the better performance vs. common opponents. Also, playing on the road keeps the spread a little more amenable. We’re giving the points with K State on Saturday.