Kentucky Wildcats at South Carolina Gamecocks
Saturday, October 3, 2026
4:15 PM ET, Williams-Brice Stadium
South Carolina is a 2.5-point home favorite over Kentucky with a total of 53.5. My play is the Wildcats getting the points.
These two teams are heading in opposite directions. Kentucky has won two straight, including a 31-21 road upset of then-No. 9 Texas A&M and a 45-21 win over South Alabama, and has climbed to No. 24 in the AP Poll. South Carolina has dropped two in a row, falling 41-34 at Mississippi State and 49-18 at Alabama, and has now lost seven straight SEC games. The Gamecocks have allowed 40-plus points in back-to-back games for the first time since 2023.
Will Stein has Kentucky playing with confidence in his first season after coming over from Oregon. Kenny Minchey and the offense are averaging 34.5 points per game, built on a run game that produces 203.5 yards per game. The win at Kyle Field was Stein’s signature moment, and it came on the road against a top-10 team. A ranked Kentucky team has nothing to fear walking into Columbia.
South Carolina’s defense is in rough shape. Alabama’s Keelon Russell completed 21 of 27 passes for 365 yards and four touchdowns last week, with at least four busted coverages in the first half alone. Shane Beamer called the performance embarrassing after the game. Now the Gamecocks will also be without star edge rusher Dylan Stewart, who is suspended. Losing their best pass rusher against a Kentucky team that wants to run the ball and control the clock is a significant blow.
LaNorris Sellers is the reason South Carolina is favored. He has completed 62.1% of his passes for 833 yards with six touchdowns and four interceptions, and he’s added 244 rushing yards. The Gamecocks’ offense ranks 18th nationally in efficiency and is averaging 38.5 points per game, and Kentucky’s pass defense (234 yards allowed per game, 103rd) is vulnerable. That’s the biggest risk to this pick. But South Carolina has also struggled to finish drives against SEC defenses, reaching Alabama’s 25-yard line five times across its two SEC games and coming away with just 13 points on those trips, all against Mississippi State.
The series history favors South Carolina, which has won four straight in the matchup, including 35-13 last season. Those games came against Mark Stoops-coached Kentucky teams, though, and this is a rebuilt roster with 29 transfer additions and a new staff.
At 2.5 points, Kentucky needs only to stay within a field goal. Against a South Carolina team missing its top pass rusher and coming off two straight losses, a ranked Wildcats team getting points is the right side.
Realistic outcomes: Kentucky 28, South Carolina 24 (Kentucky wins outright); Kentucky 27, South Carolina 21 (Kentucky wins outright); South Carolina 24, Kentucky 23 (1-point margin, Kentucky covers +2.5); or South Carolina 31, Kentucky 21 (10-point margin, doesn’t cover). Three of four scenarios cover for Kentucky.
The Pick: Kentucky Wildcats +2.5
Take the ranked Wildcats and the points against a reeling Gamecocks team, and bring some extra bankroll into Saturday. New players at MyBookie Sportsbook can claim a 100% REAL CASH bonus on a first deposit of $100 to $300 with promo code PREDICT100. It’s a FREE way to bet Kentucky +2.5 and the rest of your Week 5 college football picks.
