Lay the Points: Alabama vs. Auburn ATS Pick

No. 8 Alabama Crimson Tide (10-1 SU, 8-3 ATS) vs. Auburn Tigers (6-5 SU, 5-6 ATS)

College Football Week 13 –  The Iron Bowl!

Date/Time: Saturday, November 25th, 2023, 3:30PM (EST)

Where: Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL

TV: CBS

Betting Odds:

Point Spread: ALA -15/AUB +15

Moneyline: Bama -600/Aub +460

Total: 48.5

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The Alabama Crimson Tide have already secured their spot in next week’s SEC Championship against the no. 1 ranked Georgia Bulldogs, marking the 3rd meeting between both national powerhouses in the last five conference championship games. However, before the nation can turn its attention to another historic SEC Championship Game with National Championship implications, the Crimson Tide must first get past the Auburn Tigers in another rendition of the Iron Bowl this Saturday.

Admittedly, Auburn has not had the season that most would have expected on the plains. The Tigers, who are 6-5 SU, are on the heels of the most disappointing loss of the season in a 31-10 defeat against New Mexico State, which handed the Aggies their first win in school history against an SEC opponent. Needless to say, the Tigers have struggled tremendously in recent weeks, with losses in four of their last seven games. However, all of those struggles could be merely forgotten if they manage to pull off an upset over Alabama this Saturday at Jordan-Hare Stadium!

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Analysis

While Alabama has not been nearly as dominant this season as college football fans have routinely witnessed and expected under Head Coach Nick Saban, the progression of the team appears to have been underappreciated this year. At the beginning of the season, the Crimson Tide struggled to move the football on offense. However, they have improved significantly during the second half of the season, now averaging 47 points per game over their last four contests, including three games against SEC opponents.

QB Jalen Milroe has been making good decisions and is completing passes at a high percentage. In fact, Milroe has completed 70% of his throws over the past four games, resulting in 15 total touchdowns. The Alabama running attack has improved, and overall, the team is not making the mistakes that were seen earlier in the season. For this week’s matchup against Auburn, the physicality of Auburn’s defense could pose challenges for Alabama, but it’s not expected to be overly imposing. A significant concern is whether Auburn’s offense can maintain possession to relieve their defense. The Tigers’ offense has been lackluster this year, with the exception of RB Jarquez Hunter. QB Payton Thorne has struggled with throws beyond 10 yards, which might play into the strengths of the Alabama defense. As a result, another challenging outing is expected for the Auburn offense, a theme throughout the season.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Trends

• Alabama is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 games.
• Alabama has hit the “over” in 6 of the last 7 games.
• Alabama is 11-4 SU in the last 15 games against Auburn.
• Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in the last 5 games on the road against Auburn.
• Auburn is 5-14 SU in the last 19 games against SEC opponents.
• Auburn is 1-3-1 ATS in the last 5 games as an underdog by a touchdown or more.
• Auburn is 3-11 SU in the last 14 games against SEC West opponents.
• Auburn is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 games against Alabama.

Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Auburn Tigers Betting Prediction

Auburn may keep this game competitive in the early stages. However, if the Tigers continue to struggle offensively, the Crimson Tide are expected to wear down the defense and eventually secure a comfortable victory. The key factor is the Alabama defense, which is likely to create turnovers and short-yardage situations to support the offense. With Alabama having covered in seven of their last eight games, a similar outcome is anticipated for this year’s Iron Bowl.

Jay’s Pick: Take Alabama -15