No. 17 LSU Tigers (7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS) vs. No. 24 Ole Miss Rebels (7-3 SU, 5-4-1 ATS)
College Football Week 11
Date/Time: Saturday November 21st, 3:30PM EST
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, M.S.
by Jay, NCAA Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Point Spread: LSU +4/MISS -4
Over/Under Total: 55
After suffering a tough loss to Alabama, the LSU Tigers failed to bounce back last week in a 31-14 beat down at the hands of unranked Arkansas. The loss basically eliminated the Tigers from the SEC Championship race and they will be faced with the tough challenge of turning things around this Saturday. LSU will take their two game losing streak on the road this Saturday as they go into Oxford to battle the 24th ranked Ole Miss Rebels inside Vaught-Hemingway Stadium.
The Rebels had some extra time off last week after also suffering a loss to Arkansas in their last outing in one of the craziest games of the year. At 7-3 SU, the Rebels have a chance to finish what has been a really good year or they could potentially collapse similar to last years team. The good news for Ole Miss fans is that this team is still playing pretty well. I dont believe their confidence has been shaken in the way LSUs has in the last couple of weeks. The offense is still performing well with quarterback Chad Kelly who is completing 65% of his passes and has racked up 3,224 yards with 23 touchdowns and 12 picks on the season.
On the outside, wide receiver Laquon Treadwell has become nearly unstoppable. Treadwell has posted 5 straight outings of at least 100 receiving yards and has scored 6 touchdowns during that stretch as well. Treadwell is a nightmare matchup and I have not seen any LSU corner that appears to have what it takes to shut him down this Saturday. Therefore, I believe it will be very interesting to see if the Rebels offensive line can hold up against a rather tough LSU defensive front. If they can get Kelly time to throw the football, then they will have some matchup opportunities to exploit on the outside.
For the Tigers, they have to get their momentum back this week if they are going to snap this losing streak. Star running back Leonard Fournette has been held to just 122 yards in the last two games combined after averaging nearly 190 yards per outing through the first 7 games of the season. Fournette has been relatively bottled up in recent weeks against tough defenses and Ole Miss presents a pretty talented defensive front to challenge LSUs running attack again this weekend.
The problem for LSU at least offensively is that they have not been able to do anything but run the football. Quarterback Brandon Harris is completing just 56% passing on the season and he has also thrown two interceptions in the last two losses as well. Harris had gone all season before throwing a pick previously but that was largely because he was rarely called on to throw the football. When Alabama and Arkansas started finding ways to slow down Fournette, both defenses were able to exploit LSUs inability to move the football through the air.
If Ole Miss is able to have the same type of success up front again this week, Harris will need to make some throws early to keep Ole Miss from targeting the run on every down. I honestly believe Harris will be the key to LSU winning this football game. The Tigers have the defense to really challenge the Rebels in the trenches on the defensive side of the ball and we know they should be able to run the ball to some positive degree with Fournette in the backfield. However the key to taking control of this game will be in Harriss ability to make throws down the field.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: Interestingly, the underdog has gone 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between LSU and Ole Miss. I am not as confident that LSU will keep that streak going this weekend but I do feel like it will be a hard fought game on both sides of the ball. Scoring will be few and far between. Take the under as the best bet of the game. Take the under 56
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