LSU vs. Ole Miss Pick 11/16/19
No. 1 LSU Tigers (9-0 SU, 6-2-1 ATS) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (4-6 SU, 6-4 ATS)
Date/Time: Saturday November 16th, 2019. 7:00PM (EST)
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium Oxford, M.S.
Point Spread: LSU -21/MISS +21 (WagerWeb - Find 20 point football teasers there!)
Over/Under Total: 63
The LSU Tigers sent a loud and decisive message last week by knocking off no. 2 Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Not only did the Tigers snap Alabama’s 31 game home winning streak, but they took full control of the SEC to signal a potential changing of the guard among the SEC’s powerhouses. LSU’s body of work has thoroughly impressed with four victories over top 10 ranked opponents, and they clearly appear to be the best team in the country. With the tough part of the schedule in the rearview, LSU simply has to avoid any setbacks moving forward starting this Saturday as they will be 21 point favorites on the road in Oxford against the Ole Miss Rebels.
Trap game lingering in Oxford?
My initial thoughts on the betting line for this week’s match-up between LSU and Ole Miss was that the line appeared rather conservative. The Rebels have lost 5 of their last six games, including 4 of their last five games against SEC opponents. Outside of Arkansas, the Rebels are probably the worst team in the SEC West with clear offensive limitations ranking 84th in the FBS in scoring. With that said, LSU’s style of play is not exactly known for blowing opponents off the field. The Tigers are a physical football team that routinely looks to establish a power run game behind Clyde Edwards-Helaire. While Joe Burrow has emerged as one of the top passers in college football, the Tigers still want to run the football and utilize their running success to open things up in the passing game. I expect both the run game and passing attack will find their targets this weekend against a subpar Rebels defense that has given up 396 total yards per game which could present trouble when you consider the weapons on this LSU offense.
The Tigers currently rank 4th in the FBS in scoring averaging a whopping 46.7 points per game, which is utterly insane for a team that still favors the run over the passing attack. If you consider LSU’s significant advantages on the defensive side of the football in this match-up against a clear one-dimensional offense that has failed to produce a quality passing threat, I remain perplexed why this betting line is listed at just 21 points. I understand the circumstantial components around this game, which could indicate a letdown performance. The Tigers are on the heels of their biggest hard-fought game of the season and will be heavy road favorites against an inferior opponent. Nearly everyone is expecting the Tigers to run the table, and those circumstances definitely could provoke a letdown performance. However, in the realm of handicapping, you don’t expect letdown performances. Sure we should never ignore when indicators are present, but LSU has shown up in every game this season. Coach O has the respect and determination of his players, which has been on full display every week. If we look at this game from a match-up standpoint based on the betting line, we can retain serious value by laying the points with the Tigers!
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LSU vs. Ole Miss betting trends
To strengthen my argument for LSU’s cover this weekend, consider the fact that the Tigers remain one of the most profitable teams in the country at 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games. The Tigers are also 4-1 ATS in the previous 5 meetings against the Rebels. Ole Miss has carried positive betting trends as well as covering the mark in five of their last six games. The Rebels have also trended towards the ‘under’ in four of their previous five games while the Tigers are trending towards the ‘over’ in nine of their last 12 games. In the prior six meetings between LSU and Ole Miss, the under has cash in four of the six meetings.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: LSU -21. Make the Tigers a -1 point favorite by inserting them into a massive 20 point college football teaser at BetAnySports!