Mike Mann breaks down the 2026 MAC season with total wins picks, leans, and trends for all 13 teams heading into the college football opener.
MAC Total Wins Preview
The college football season is now just a couple of weeks away from starting, and the time is now to start grabbing some preseason bargains on total wins. Below you will find a breakdown of each of the MAC teams along with some picks, leans, and trends. Odds are provided by Bovada.
Western Michigan
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
A tough non-conference schedule that includes Michigan and Boise State has Western Michigan likely looking at a 2-2 start to their season, though at least the battle of the Broncos matchup against Boise is at home where WMU is 9-2 over the past two seasons. Their MAC slate has them avoiding Ohio and getting Miami Ohio at home, but they also miss out on three easy wins with the schedule not including the bottom tier of the conference in UMass, Sacramento State, or Ball State. They will undoubtedly be battle-tested by season’s end and at 3-1 present decent value at repeating as conference champion.
LEAN: Over 7.5 wins
LEAN: MAC Champion (+300)
TREND: The Broncos are 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 games as a home favorite and have not lost at Waldo Stadium when giving points since October of 2022.
Miami Ohio
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
The first month of the season presents some obstacles for the RedHawks with a road trip to take on the Pitt Panthers along with an interstate, neutral field showdown against the Cincinnati Bearcats. They also have easier matchups against some of the best New England has to offer in UConn and Holy Cross, which, combined with facing a schedule that has just five true road games and avoids Toledo within the MAC, should mean little trouble for Miami Ohio in eclipsing their expected win total.
PICK: Over 6.5 wins
TREND: The RedHawks have taken advantage of playing at home of late, going 29-6 straight up in their last 35 games at Yager Stadium with an against the spread record of 11-2 in the last three years as a favorite.
Toledo
Over/Under: 7.5 wins
An opening weekend matchup on the road to take on Michigan State is likely the only away game the Rockets will be underdogs in all season. They have just five road games and draw their most difficult opponents (San Diego State and Western Michigan) at home, where they have won 22 of their last 24 games, while also getting the benefit of playing all three of the worst teams in conference (Ball and Sac State along with UMass).
PICK: Over 7.5 wins
TREND: The Rockets have not been an underdog at home in the last four seasons and in the last three years have covered all four times they were getting points on the road.
Ohio
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
A non-conference schedule that includes Nebraska, Stanford and Jacksonville State is not an easy start to the Bobcats’ season. Once they hit the MAC portion of the slate, things at least get a bit easier with no Western Michigan while also getting Central Michigan, Eastern Michigan and Toledo at home, where Ohio is 23-1 in their last 24 games. The Bobcats may not reach the nine-win plateau they’ve gotten to or eclipsed in each of the last four seasons, but should still clear the number of victories needed to hit the over.
PICK: Over 6.5 wins
TREND: Ohio went 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread over the last four seasons in games in which they were a home underdog.
Central Michigan
Over/Under: 6.5 wins
The Chippewas are looking at a 2-2 non-conference record at best to start their season, with road losses expected against New Mexico and Miami, a win versus FCS Colgate and a hopeful victory at home against Wyoming. They do benefit from having only three road MAC matchups considering they’ve gone 12-4 at home over the past three seasons, and also get their most difficult conference games at Kelly/Shorts Stadium against Western Michigan and Miami Ohio. Overall, I would have leaned closer to taking them if the over/under was 5.5, but the extra win expectation has me going the other way.
PICK: Under 6.5 wins
TREND: Central Michigan is 1-7 straight in their last eight neutral field matchups and just 2-6 against the spread. In bowl games, they have just one win since 2012 and have gone 4-10 in their school history.
Eastern Michigan
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
A schedule with just five true home games combined with road trips to take on Michigan State and Wisconsin in the first month of the season and later away matchups against Western Michigan and Ohio does not ring out as an Eagles team you want to wager on. But when considering they should be favored in seven of their other eight games with a home matchup against Toledo the only one in question, I am slightly in favor of bowl eligibility for Eastern Michigan.
LEAN: Over 5.5 wins
TREND: The Eagles went 43-22-1 against the spread as an underdog over the past ten seasons.
Buffalo
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
The Bulls will have plenty of chances at wins this year with games against two FCS teams along with four of the bottom six teams in the MAC (UMass, Ball State, Akron, Bowling Green). They also face four teams they have little to no chance of beating with road trips to Penn State, Toledo, Miami (OH), and a home matchup against the favorite to win the conference in Western Michigan. Essentially betting on them to hit their over means they would have to go 6-2 in their other eight games, which even with the easier matchups might not be the locks they appear considering Buffalo has lost eight times as a favorite over the past four seasons, including two losses against FCS opponents.
LEAN: Under 5.5 wins
TREND: The Bulls are 14-6-1 against the spread in their last 21 games as a home underdog but just 5-12 in their last 17 when favored at home.
Bowling Green
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
Similar to Buffalo above, the Falcons’ schedule has multiple expected losses (road games at Nebraska, Iowa State, Miami Ohio, Western Michigan and Toledo) and a good number of chances at wins; at home against FCS Tarleton State along with hosting the bottom four teams in the MAC (UMass, Sacramento State, Ball State, Kent State). Unfortunately, Bowling Green has another ill-fated parallel to Buffalo, in that they have not taken care of business when expected of late with seven of their last ten losses coming as a favorite, including a current streak of four in a row.
LEAN: Under 4.5 wins
TREND: The Falcons are 7-17-1 against the spread giving points at home over the past decade and could be favored in as many as five games at Doyt Perry Stadium in 2026.
Akron
Over/Under: 4.5 wins
The Zips’ MAC schedule does them no favors in 2026, missing out on games against Ball State, Sacramento State and Bowling Green while getting their best chances at MAC wins (Kent State and UMass) on the road, where Akron is 5-40 straight up in their last 45 away matchups. Non-conference looks even worse with only a game vs FCS Robert Morris offset by three unwinnable games against Wake Forest, Minnesota and UNLV, so their recent run against such opponents (5-21 straight up last 26, 10-27 against the spread last 37) is looking like it will continue.
PICK: Under 4.5 wins
TREND: Akron is 9-17-2 against the spread as a favorite over the past 10 years, which averages out to less than three times per season.
Kent State
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
Seven of the Golden Flashes’ games are on the road, which is particularly worrisome for a team that has gone 2-19 in their last 21 road games. A non-conference schedule that includes South Carolina, Ohio State and South Florida definitely doesn’t help either. They do get Wofford, Ball State and Akron at home, but asking for more than three wins out of this team is likely asking too much.
LEAN: Under 3.5 wins
TREND: Four of Kent State’s last five wins came in games in which they were underdogs.
Ball State
Over/Under: 3.5 wins
Similar to Kent State above them, the Cardinals have been awful on the road in recent history (2-20 last 22), are stuck with a schedule that has them traveling for seven away games that includes three tough non-conference opponents (Ohio State, Liberty, Northwestern). Fortunately for Ball State, they do miss out on a majority of the top teams at the top of the conference and will get a handful of chances at possible wins with games against UMass, Sacramento State, Kent State, Bowling Green, Buffalo and FCS Stony Brook.
LEAN: Over 3.5 wins
TREND: Either getting or giving points the Cardinals have been terrible of late on the road against the spread as well, going 1-5 as a favorite and 2-6 as an underdog.
Sacramento State
Over/Under: 5.5 wins
After going 10-14 with zero playoff games over the past two seasons, the Hornets thought the time was right to jump to the FBS level. They have a couple decent shots at victories with home games against Miss Valley State, UMass and Kent State, but with a new head coach and a serious increase in competition talent, I am not expecting a great season in Sacramento.
PICK: Under 5.5 wins
TREND: The Hornets are 18-9 against the spread in their last 27 games as a road favorite. They could be underdogs in all six away matchups this season.
UMass
Over/Under: 2.5 wins
The Minutemen joined the FBS ranks in 2012 and have never had more than four wins in a season. They have only won six games in the past four years and have only one win at home against an FBS team since 2019. They are even worse on the road with a 4-55 away record in the past ten seasons. There are plenty more facts that could further shine a light on how bad UMass been, but as an alum wishing for any sort of positivity out of their football or basketball team, I believe they actually could clear the over on their win total with two home games against FCS opponents (Stonehill and Sacred Heart) along with a handful of matchups against other teams in the bottom tier of the MAC (Sacramento State, Buffalo, Ball State, Akron and Bowling Green).
LEAN: Over 2.5 wins
TREND: UMass 8-68 straight up in their last 76 games, with half of those wins against FCS opponents.
