Maryland at Michigan State Predictions ATS 11/13/21

by | Nov 10, 2021 | cfb

Maryland Terrapins (5-4 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Michigan State Spartans (8-1, 6-1-2), 11/8/21

When: 4 pm ET

Where: Spartan Stadium

TV: Fox

Point Spread: Mary +13/MSU -13 (Get the best teaser lines >>> Speaking of teasers, did you know you can move the line up to 20 points at Wagerweb Sportsbook?)

Over/under: 62.5

Coming off its first loss of this season, Michigan State Spartans shoot to bounce back and stay alive in the Big Ten East race when they host bowl-hopeful Maryland Saturday afternoon in East Lansing. The surprising Spartans were tied for the lead in the BTE with Ohio State going into last week but suffered an almost-inevitable letdown and their first defeat. Now it’s a matter of keeping pace with the Buckeyes this week, which would set up a big game in Columbus next week.

Michigan State is favored by two touchdowns over a Terps team that needs one more win to become bowl-eligible. Which way are we going here with our free college football betting pick?

Maryland-Michigan State Betting Odds

This week’s college football betting lines opened the Spartans as 13-point favorites over Maryland, with an over/under of right around 62. Both those figures were holding steady in the early betting action.

Maryland Betting Preview

The Terrapins are 5-4 on the season after falling at home to Penn State last week 31-14. However, that game was a little closer than that final score might indicate. Maryland only trailed the Nittany Lions 7-6 at the half, then tied the score with a touchdown and a 2-point conversion early in the fourth quarter. The Terps then gave up a big play for a PSU touchdown, later drove to the Penn State 13-yard line but had an interception returned 87 yards for another Lions TD, creating that misleading final score.

Maryland also passed away the cover as a 10-point dog.

The Terrapins got out-gained by the Lions 456-419, produced just 48 yards rushing, and lost the turnover battle 2-0, resulting in a -10 points differential.

So Maryland’s now been out-gained by four of its last five opponents and out-rushed by each of its previous seven foes.

Two weeks ago, the Terps beat Indiana 38-35, but prior to that, they lost their three previous games, to Minnesota, Ohio State, and Iowa, by an average score of 50-16.

With five wins overall, Maryland needs one moreover its last three games to become bowl-eligible for the first time in five seasons.

Michigan State Betting Preview

The Spartans, meanwhile, are 8-1 on the season after falling at Purdue last week 40-29. Coming off that huge rivalry victory over Michigan, Michigan State fell behind 7-0 six minutes into the game and trailed 21-14 at the half. The Spartans then drove the opening possession of the second half to a touchdown but then gave up a 16-0 Boilermakers run and couldn’t come back, taking their first defeat of the season.

Michigan State gave up 594 yards of Purdue total offense and lost time of possession by a 35:25 split.

The Spartans have now been out-gained by five of their last six opponents, although they’ve also out-rushed four of their previous five foes.

Two weeks ago, Michigan State got out-gained by Michigan by 157 yards but won 37-33, and three weeks ago, the Spartans got out-gained by Indiana by 81 yards but won 20-15.

At 5-1 in conference play, Michigan State now trails first-place Ohio State by one game in the Big Ten East, with a trip to Columbus next week.

Maryland-Michigan State Recent History

The Spartans are 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS against the Terps since these teams became conference rivals back in 2014. Most recently, two seasons ago, Michigan State had to come from behind to beat Maryland 19-16 as a three-touchdown favorite.

More Picks: Get Kemp’s Michigan at Penn State Betting Predictions >>>

College Football Betting Trends

So far this season, teams ranked in the Coaches Top 25 are 134-36 SU, 85-82 ATS vs. unranked opponents.

Totals Report

The Under is 5-4 in Terps games this season, which are averaging 58 total points.

Overs are 5-4 in Spartans games this season, which are averaging 57 points.

The Under is a perfect 6-0 over the last six meetings between these teams, which have trended low-scoring.

Free College Football Betting Pick

Our take is Michigan State is playing above its head this season while Maryland is playing a bit below expectations. But we know leans like that tend to even out over the course of a season or so. Also, that MSU defense is giving up 443 yards per game. Also, playing on the road means the spread is probably a field goal or so friendlier toward the visitors. We’re taking the Terps here and won’t be surprised if they pull the upset. Bet all of your Week 11 college football picks FREE by scoring a 100% real cash bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $1000 at Betnow Sportsbook!

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