Mississippi State vs. Georgia Prediction ATS

by | Nov 18, 2020 | cfb

Mississippi State Bulldogs (2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS) vs. Georgia Bulldogs (4-2, 2-4), 11/21/20

Time: 7:30 pm ET Saturday, Nov. 21

Where: Sanford Stadium

TV: SEC Network

Point spread: Miss St +24.5/Geo -24.5 (GTBets - 100% REAL CASH bonus on your first deposit of $100 to $500!)

Over/Under: 44.5

Georgia meets Mississippi State in the SEC’s battle of the Bulldogs Saturday night between the hedges in Athens. UGA started great this season but is experiencing some turbulence as of late. MSU, meanwhile, began the Coach Leach era with a bang but is also struggling lately. Georgia’s favored by better than three touchdowns for this one; who do we like here for our free college football pick?

College Football Betting Odds

College football betting odds opened Georgia at -24 over Mississippi State, with an over/under of 45.5. Early betting action then bumped the Bulldogs to -24.5 and dipped that total to 44.5.

Bulldogs vs. Bulldogs Betting Preview

In its first season under Coach Leach, Mississippi State snapped a four-game losing skid with a 24-17 victory over Vanderbilt two weeks ago. The Bulldogs then had last week’s scheduled game against Auburn canceled.

MSU led Vandy 17-0 at the half two weeks ago, then allowed the Commodores, who are 0-6 on the season, to get within 17-14 in the fourth quarter. The Bulldogs hung on for the outright win but came up well short of covering the spread as 18-point favorites.

Mississippi State got out-gained by Vanderbilt 478-204 and lost first downs 30-14. But the Bulldogs won the turnover battle 5-0, creating at least a +20 points differential.

Also, MSU freshman quarterback Will Rogers, making his first career college start in place of the injured KJ Costello, hit on 35/46 throws but for only 226 yards, with one touchdown and zero interceptions. It appears Rogers will start again this Saturday.

Prior to that victory, the Bulldogs scored a total of 30 points in losing consecutive games to Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, and Alabama. They’re also 0-5 ATS their last five times out.

At 2-4 overall, Mississippi State needs at least three wins over its last four games to even get a sniff of a bowl bid.

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Meanwhile, Georgia is 1-2 SU, 0-3 ATS over its last three games, after falling to Florida two weeks ago 44-28. The Bulldogs then had last week’s game against Missouri canceled.

UGA actually bounced out to a 14-0 lead on the Gators two weeks ago and led 21-14 in the second quarter. But the Bulldogs then ran into a wall, gave up a 27-0 Florida run spanning the halves, and lost outright as a 2.5-point favorite.

Georgia got out-gained by the Gators 571-277 and lost first downs 29-12, time of possession 37:23, and the turnover battle 3-1. In other words, the Bulldogs got thoroughly out-played.

Also, UGA quarterbacks combined to hit on just 9/29 passes for 112 yards, with three interceptions.

Just prior to that loss, the Bulldogs beat Kentucky 14-3 but couldn’t cover as 17-point favorites. And just before that, they lost to Alabama 41-24 and couldn’t cover as six-point dogs. So Georgia’s trending in the wrong direction as of late.

At 4-2 in conference play, the ‘Dawgs trail the first-place Gators by a game and a tie-breaker in the SEC East, and it doesn’t look like Florida is going to lose twice from here on out.

Mississippi State-Georgia Recent History

Georgia is 11-1 over the last 12 meetings with MSU, stretching back to 1975. Most recently, three seasons ago, UGA beat Mississippi State 31-3, covering as a three-point favorite.

College Football Betting Trends

Mississippi State is 1-3 ATS this season as an underdog.

Mississippi State is 16-22 both SU and ATS over its last 38 SEC games.

Georgia is 5-8 ATS its last 13 games giving between 20 and 30 points.

Totals Report

Unders are 5-1 in MSU games this season, which are averaging 44 total points against an average over/under of 58.

Totals are split 3-3 in Georgia games this season, which are averaging 50 points against an average O/U of 49.

Free College Football Pick

Georgia is the better team here and should win this game, but the Bulldogs also aren’t exactly tearing things up as of late. And they’re not getting much from the quarterback position. Meanwhile, Mississippi State is going through some serious growing pains trying to learn Leach’s offensive system, but the defense is playing decent ball. This game should be low-scoring, which means 24 points might be a lot. The chances of an upset seem slim, but we’ll take Mississippi State and the points. Bet this game and ALL your football picks at -105 odds instead of -110 at BAS Sportsbook! It’s the smart thing to do! Laying -110 is a joke! Total waste of money!