Ohio State vs. TCU Week 3 Pick
No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS) vs. No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS)
College Football Week 3
When: Saturday September 15th, 2018. 8:00PM (EST)
Where: AT&T Stadium Arlington, T.X.
By Jay Horne, College Football Handicapper, Predictem.com
Spread: OSU -13/TCU +13
Last week, I provided numerous reasons while I believed Ohio State was a strong pick against Rutgers and the Buckeyes delivered with a 52-3 shellacking over the Scarlet Knights. Likewise, I also pegged TCU as a strong pick in another heavy favorite situation against SMU. The Horned Frogs also delivered with a easy 42-12 cover to help cash another winning ticket. This week no. 4 Ohio State and no. 15 TCU meet inside AT&T Stadium in Arlington for a rare out of conference pairing between two big time programs. Obviously I cannot pick both teams again this week but I will tell you the reasons why Ohio State will roll to 3-0 SU and ATS!
I mentioned this meeting was a rare out of conference pairing. In fact, this week’s meeting between Ohio State and TCU marks the first meeting between both schools since 1973. So unlike many of the conference pairings that we will get more accustomed towards over the next few weeks, the Horned Frogs and Buckeyes are not familiar with each other. While Ohio State has held the top spot in the Big Ten for some time, TCU has been nearing the mountain top in the Big 12. Ironically, TCU’s style of football possibly resembles the Big Ten more so than the Big 12 and that is just one reason I believe the Buckeyes will hold the advantage on Saturday because ultimately it is all about the matchups on the field!
Ohio State could be the best team in College Football
I know it may be too early to start making legitimate analysis on the College Football Playoffs but if the season ended right now, Ohio State and Alabama are by far the best two teams in the country. In fact, I may give the Buckeyes the nod. So far, everything has looked great. The defense shook off some opening rust with a strong performance against Rutgers. The Buckeyes defense allowed just 134 yards of total offense from the Scarlet Knights. The defense was bigger, stronger, faster, and simply overwhelming.
Meanwhile, the offense was every bit overwhelming in their attack. Quarterback Dwayne Haskins has been downright impressive with 9 touchdown passes and just 1 pick while sporting an impressive 79.2 completion percentage. Meanwhile, the offense is loaded with big play threats. The Buckeyes rushing attack is explosive behind the legs of Mike Weber and J.K Dobbins who are averaging over 6 yards per carry. The rushing attack has been so resilient that the offense keeps creating big plays. Weber is a big play threat with every touch and the ground game is opening big holes in the passing game. The Buckeyes have already racked up 5 touchdowns over 40 yards throughout their first two games and undoubtedly have a ton of momentum ahead of this Saturday’s meeting with TCU.
Bet on the Ohio State Defense
I don’t have any doubt that the Buckeyes will find ways to score points despite the consistency that Head Coach Gary Patterson’s defenses typically produce. When it comes to the 13 point spread, I am betting on the Ohio State defense. After last week’s dominate performance against Rutgers where the defense allowed just 134 yards, the defense will have the opportunity to flex in another advantageous matchup. TCU’s offense revolves heavily around quarterback Shawn Robinson. Robinson is the Horned Frogs leading rusher and is a decent passer. Ohio State defensive coordinator Greg Schiano does a very good job of preparing for these types of matchups and notoriously attacks opposing offenses biggest weapons. I believe that will be the case again on Saturday as the Buckeyes put a ton of focus in the box to limit Robinson’s RPOs. In more pure passing situations, the Buckeyes should strive with their pass rush and coverage in the secondary.
Jay’s Pick to Cover the Point Spread: The trends also support my arguments above. Ohio State is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games while TCU is just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games. All signs pointing to the Buckeyes. Take Ohio State -13