RBD takes Seattle -6.5 at Las Vegas, backing a WF1 model spot that’s 0-2 against the Raiders at home and a Seahawks defense that should eat rookie Fernando Mendoza alive in his first start.
Seattle Seahawks (5-4) vs Las Vegas Raiders (4-5)
I always try and be extra careful when I think I see a good spot to bet on Seattle, because I’m a fan and need to make sure I’m not seeing the game through biased eyes.
But I have some numbers on this week’s game so let’s take a look.
My WF1 model has a record of 3-3 on Hm teams.
No edge, right?
BUT . . .
Two of those three losses came on the Raiders.
LV is 0-2 when they qualify as a WF1 Hm Fav.
And guess who’s the only team that qualifies this week – yup, Vegas.
For most of the off season, and for the first three weeks the regular season, I’ve had to endure the locals here in Vegas yakking it up about how THIS is the Raiders year.
The last six weeks? Not so much.
Las Vegas has lost five of their last six games, the only win coming against the lowly Jets.
In that stretch they’ve gone 0-3 at Hm, losing by an average of 6.5 PPG, which just so happens to be the number the books hung on this game, Sea -6′.
The Seahawks are underperforming, especially on the Rd where they’re just 1-2 SU and ATS.
And in two of those three games they wouldn’t have covered the number on Sunday’s contest.
So the -6′ is a tough nut to cover but if you’re playing flat and you need to turn your season around Vegas is a good place to start.
The Seahawks aren’t going to catch San Fran for the division title, and they can’t afford to go to 5-5 with a loss this week if they want to stay competitive in the Wild card race.
The Raiders on the other hand are already out of it. My pals in Vegas are going to boisterously disagree but they’re jaded homers who don’t want to face the truth.
And the truth is the Raiders have no shot at the division title.
As for the wild card, they’re not going to be able to keep pace with Cincinnati, Cleveland, New England, and Kansas City.
But thinking they still have a shot at the postseason, Davis and Brady finally listened to the cries of, “We want Mendoza” and dumped Kirk Cousins.
Fernando gets his first start this weekend and I expect it to be a rough welcome to the league at the hands of the Seattle defense.
Despite their slow start, Seattle is still doing what they do best – beating up on the opposing offense.
They’re ranked in the top four in the league, giving up just 18 PPG.
And God knows I’m going to need the defense this week.
Yay/Boo – “Yay, Sam Darnold is out. Boo – that means I get Drew Lock.”
Let’s face it, the Seahawks won the super Bowl last year despite Darnold. They limited his mistakes and made it to the top. But it was only a matter of time before the natural order of things was restored and Darnold became Darnold again.
Team rankings have Sam ranked 28th out of 32 starting QBs, so I’m glad to see him out of the game this week.
But, that gives me Drew Lock, which means Seattle -6′ is no lock (sorry, couldn’t resist.)
But maybe I’m not so bad off with Lock?
Although he has a long history of severe suckage he’s actually 3-0 SU in games either replacing the injured Darnold or starting for the Seahawks this season.
One more note.
I always remind bettors to not only look at stats and records for the teams they’re thinking of betting on, but also look at YOUR OWN record.
Where are your wins coming from, where are your losses?
What’s your record on Overs and Unders?
Do you do well with Favs or Dogs?
Do you have success (or not) when ‘capping certain teams?
If you don’t know the answer to those questions, YOU SHOULD.
I practice what I preach.
Before betting ON Seattle/AGAINST Las Vegas I looked over my NFL bets this season.
I bet against the Raiders once.
At Hm, like this week.
I had LAR -3.
The Rams won by two TD’s.
‘Nuff said.
The Books opened Seattle at -5′, and it’s already up to -6′. I can probably find better lines because I’m in Vegas and the locals will be betting on the Raiders, but I don’t see this one dropping. If anything, it goes higher – a few houses already have extra juice on the -6′. So I’m buying it now at the current number.
My play: Sea -6′
