Los Angeles Rams at Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, November 15, 2026
4:05 PM ET, State Farm Stadium
The Rams are 9.5-point favorites at Arizona with a total of 39.5 at most books. My play is Under 39.5.
Count the missing pieces and this game starts to look like a preseason game in November. Arizona is down to its third quarterback. The Rams are down to their third and fourth receivers. I’m not sure who wins by how much, but I’m pretty sure nobody’s lighting up the scoreboard.
Arizona’s quarterback room has been gutted in a week. The Cardinals traded Jacoby Brissett to Baltimore, then Gardner Minshew landed on injured reserve after reportedly tearing his UCL, per the Rams’ official site. That leaves rookie Carson Beck, the 65th overall pick out of Miami, making his first NFL start. Beck was terrific in college, but first starts behind a banged-up line (three Cardinals linemen are questionable) usually look more like survival than fireworks. His best receiver, Michael Wilson, is done for the year with a neck injury, and the run game is on its backup plan too: top pick Jeremiyah Love is on IR and James Conner hasn’t played this season. Tyler Allgeier has 369 yards on 89 carries, about 4.1 a pop.
This is an offense that managed three points at Seattle last week and averages 19.8 per game with a healthier roster.
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The Rams win ugly now, and that’s fine by them
Los Angeles has won three straight, but look at how. It beat Washington 20-13, and Sports Illustrated’s Iain MacMillan pointed out the Rams were outgained by 0.7 yards per play in that game. Puka Nacua is doubtful with a knee injury, Davante Adams is on IR and tight end Terrance Ferguson is out with a hamstring. Matthew Stafford (2,374 yards, 16 touchdowns, nine picks) is throwing to Tutu Atwell, Jordan Whittington and Konata Mumpfield. That’s a lot of trust in a lot of unfamiliar names.
So expect the Rams to lean on Kyren Williams (593 yards, six touchdowns) and a defense that allows 20.1 points and 103.8 rushing yards a game. With a bye coming next week, a sturdy, clock-draining win is all the Rams need. The first meeting, a Cardinals 18-16 win in Los Angeles on Oct. 18, finished 34 total points with both teams far healthier than this.
Why I could be wrong
Arizona’s defense is the weak link here, allowing 28.3 points a game, and it gave up 45 to Detroit and 30 to Denver last month. If Stafford finds a rhythm with Atwell early, the Rams could hang 30 on their own. Rookie quarterbacks also throw interceptions, and a pick-six or short field can blow up a low total in one snap. And a blowout can bring late garbage-time points.
Projected score: Rams 21, Cardinals 13
The Pick: Under 39.5
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