Seattle Seahawks at Las Vegas Raiders
Sunday, November 15, 2026
4:05 PM ET, Allegiant Stadium
The Seattle Seahawks are 6.5-point favorites at the Las Vegas Raiders with a total of 40.5 at most books, and my play is Seahawks -6.5.
Welcome to the NFL, kid. Here’s the best defense in football, and your team just traded the quarterback you were supposed to learn behind.
The Raiders sent Kirk Cousins to Minnesota on Tuesday and handed the keys to Fernando Mendoza, the No. 1 overall pick. He’s coming off a Heisman Trophy and a national title at Indiana, where he threw 41 touchdowns and six picks. It’s a great story. The timing is awful. The market agreed. This line was Seattle -3.5 on Monday morning and jumped to 6.5 after the trade. I don’t think it went far enough.
Mike Macdonald gets a rookie on a Sunday afternoon
Seattle’s defense allows 4.1 yards per play, the best mark in the league by more than half a yard. Last week it held Arizona to 3 points and 198 yards, without Leonard Williams and Uchenna Nwosu. That’s the sixth time since Macdonald arrived in 2024 that Seattle has held a team to 3 or fewer, twice as many as any other team. DeMarcus Lawrence summed it up: “We’re some violent — I ain’t going to say the rest — but we’re some violent dogs, OK?”
Now picture a first start behind a Raiders line that just watched its run game gain 24 yards in San Francisco. When Las Vegas can’t run, it ends up throwing every down, and Klint Kubiak said it himself after the 49ers loss: “When you’re in position to throw the ball every down, starting in the second quarter, you’re going to throw interceptions.” That was with a veteran under center, and the Raiders still turned it over five times in one half. A rookie seeing a defense this good live for the first time is the matchup this line is built on.
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Seattle doesn’t need to be pretty, just patient
Seattle’s offense with Drew Lock at quarterback won’t win any beauty contests. It ranks 26th in EPA per play, which measures how much each snap moves the needle toward points, and Sam Darnold is out again. But Lock doesn’t have to be a hero. The Raiders have allowed 30 or more points in six straight games and give up 151 rushing yards a game. San Francisco ran for 190 against them last week, mostly straight up the middle. Zach Charbonnet just put up 77 yards on 16 carries against Arizona, and Lock hasn’t turned it over in three appearances this year. Run it, stay ahead of the chains, and let the defense take the ball away from the rookie. With a bye coming next week, Seattle has every reason to empty the tank.
How this one burns me
A 40.5 total makes a touchdown spread a big number. If this is 16-10, I’m sweating every snap. Lock is playing through an oblique injury and has been limited in practice, and if he goes down, Jalen Milroe comes in. Kubiak also ran Seattle’s offense during last year’s title run, so he knows these defensive coaches as well as anyone. And Brock Bowers is the kind of tight end who can make a rookie quarterback look comfortable, with 111 yards against the 49ers. Las Vegas is also 6-3 against the spread this season, which is a reminder that this team has made bettors money.
I’ll still back the elite defense against the first-time starter. Seattle wins the turnover battle and pulls away late.
Projected score: Seahawks 24, Raiders 13
The Pick: Seahawks -6.5 (-108)
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